Chris Douglas

Gulf war, impact on UK: The gas supply is 98% non-Gulf, it won't run out, and UK does run stocks down during winter to restock in the cheaper summer months. Ignore any warnings of gas shortage or energy blackouts. The UK's plan is to primarily using price increases to suppress demand, and that is insufficient the major energy consumers will be told to either stop fully or change demand patterns to be more overnight shift work, moving demand to higher supplier periods (windier, sunnier, warmer times). The domestic consumer won't be impacted in terms of reliability of supply but will be impacted by energy price increases feeding ultimately into widespread inflation. The gas pipes to consumers will be maintained as that positive pressure allows leaks to be detected via the smell and prevents oxygen ingress from air getting into the pipes. Any gas supply issue will cause gas supply to be prioritised and other demands such as for gas for electricity generation to be deprioritised. As we're outside of winter, and no imminent cold-snap, it is highly improbable for any supply issues. UK consumes less gas in summer, so the impact on pricing will be less than if this Gulf war had occured in Autumn, If however there needed to be electricity rolling blackouts there is a mature plan using the Electricity Supply Emergency Code system. Previous studies had shown chilled food does not go bad so long as the refrigeration doesn't keep off for more than 3 hours, so a rolling blackout is spread around the nation in no-longer-than 3 hours periods. The frequency of these are based on how much % of electricity demand suppression is required. gov.uk/government/publicatio… What you can do: - don't panic. Panic causes spike in demand (remember the toilet roll Covid panic?). Panic causes the few to hoard what the many need so causing a self-fulfilling supply shortage. - focus on the elderly/disabled that they have safe lighting and heating sources. Most people will have nil harm in any blackout but a disabled or confused person can have a serious fall in the dark. Make sure they have battery flashlights to hand in their frequent places paying attention to stair. e.g. keep a charged flashlight in bedroom, kitchen, living room, top and bottom of any stairs. Test the flashlights work and keep batteries in the property. - If the resident is physically strong and aware, non-grid based heating and cooking systems. Simple things like candles make light and some heat, but represent a fire danger so flashlights are much preferred. Camping type cooking systems are ideal, using ethanol, butane, wood, etc. - It is easier to power and heat fewer and smaller places, so a community can shrink it's energy footprint by shrinking it's physical footprint. Have a local plan to temporarily live in subset of homes. Longer term: - every home should get batteries to cope with grid failure. Good for (possible) physical failure and (improbable) grid planned outages. - every home where it is an option should get solar. Every landlord should consider installing and recoup costs in higher rents given the tenant will get lower energy bills. Councils should use the planning system to encourage (force?) new builds to have solar. - (if not already) try to work from home, shop local and focus on local seasonal food supplies.