Julian Sayin o27.5 pass attempts (-140 Fliff) #Buckeyes
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Sayin is over this line in only 2/6 games this year but this is a team that has rarely been in situations this season where they needed to pass. However, I see that changing in what should be a game full of high leverage situations in Ohio State’s pivotal road trip against Indiana.
5/6 games played by Ohio State this year have resulted in 17 point wins. The only game that was not was a one point loss against Texas that saw Ohio State play with a significant lead basically the entire way, and Sayin still cleared with ease and with 32 attempts.
Indiana has played some very poor passing offenses this year, but when they have played legitimate passing threats at QB such as Colandrea last week for Nebraska, teams will take advantage of some softer spots in the Indiana zone-heavy looks defensively. Ohio State also is a 3.5 point favorite, so we shouldn’t be seeing a blowout win like we have in many games this year for the Buckeyes.
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It legitimately depresses me how rarely Oregon gets the ball into the hands of guys like Evan Stewart. Look at what these dudes are capable of when given the opportunity. There’s just too much talent on this offense for it to be this difficult.
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Kamario Taylor o31.5 pass attempts ✅
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Kamario Taylor o31.5 pass attempts (-140 Fliff) #MississippiState
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Kamario is over this line in just 2/4 games on the season, but this game against Alabama will be his showcase game to a national audience in one of the biggest games on Saturday. With Heisman talks on the rise for him, I expect a very Kamario-heavy game plan from Mississippi State.
Looking at the two misses for him this season, one came against a massive blowout win against Minnesota in which they could not stop the run at all, and the other came in what appeared to be a close game at South Carolina as a 41-34 win, but in reality, this game was 41-23 in the 4th quarter and no serious second half passing was needed from Taylor.
Now against Alabama, Mississippi State will be a 5.5 point underdog and the team could be looking at their first trailing game script of the season. Now, I actually would not be shocked if Mississippi State wins this game at all despite being an underdog, but I would be pretty shocked if they are up 15+ in the 4th quarter like they have been in both of his misses this year. 2/3 of Alabama’s opponents have had their starting QB go over their pass attempt line against them this year. The only one who didn’t was LaNorris Sellers last week, however, he also didn’t play the final series of the game. In total, South Carolina as a team did clear his starting attempt line of 31.5. This is a team who has seen their pass defense struggle at times this year, as they are allowing 249.0 pass yards per game, which ranks 114th in FBS. Look for Mississippi State to look to the passing game to have success offensively.
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Kamario Taylor o31.5 pass attempts (-140 Fliff) #MississippiState
collab w/ @HiJackProps
Kamario is over this line in just 2/4 games on the season, but this game against Alabama will be his showcase game to a national audience in one of the biggest games on Saturday. With Heisman talks on the rise for him, I expect a very Kamario-heavy game plan from Mississippi State.
Looking at the two misses for him this season, one came against a massive blowout win against Minnesota in which they could not stop the run at all, and the other came in what appeared to be a close game at South Carolina as a 41-34 win, but in reality, this game was 41-23 in the 4th quarter and no serious second half passing was needed from Taylor.
Now against Alabama, Mississippi State will be a 5.5 point underdog and the team could be looking at their first trailing game script of the season. Now, I actually would not be shocked if Mississippi State wins this game at all despite being an underdog, but I would be pretty shocked if they are up 15+ in the 4th quarter like they have been in both of his misses this year. 2/3 of Alabama’s opponents have had their starting QB go over their pass attempt line against them this year. The only one who didn’t was LaNorris Sellers last week, however, he also didn’t play the final series of the game. In total, South Carolina as a team did clear his starting attempt line of 31.5. This is a team who has seen their pass defense struggle at times this year, as they are allowing 249.0 pass yards per game, which ranks 114th in FBS. Look for Mississippi State to look to the passing game to have success offensively.
Make sure to give @HiJackProps a follow. Without a doubt one of the sharpest college football minds in the space.
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CFB Saturday Week 1 Player Prop
Baylor Hayes o18.5 pass completions (-135 Fliff) #GoldenHurricanes
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Expecting Hayes and this Tulsa offense to have to be throwing the ball around quite a bit to keep up with Oklahoma State in Eric Morris’ debut. Morris runs an extremely high tempo air-raid offense led by QB Drew Mestemaker. Last year at North Texas, his offense ranked 6th in the nation in pace and snapped the ball on at an average 21.2 seconds per play. Back in 2024, they ranked 1st at 19.9 seconds per play. As a result of that the opponent of course also was able to run a lot of plays and see a high time of possession.
Tulsa returns their head coach Tre Lamb and also their starting QB Baylor Hayes, who I think is going to have to throw very often to be able to keep up this Oklahoma State offense, especially with Tulsa as a 13.5 point home underdog. Last year in Tulsa losses, Hayes cleared this line in just 4/7 games (5/7 if you have 17.5), but let’s take a look at what happened in those games:
vs New Mexico State - came in for the injured Kirk Francis, but Tulsa as a team completed 27 passes on 40 attempts
vs Tulane - finished at 18 exactly but on 36 pass attempts. Just an inefficient outing but still did clear 17.5.
vs UAB - this game was played in about 35-40 mph winds, both teams effectively shut down their passing games as a result.
His only other miss on the season was in a blowout win, which I can’t see likely at all considering Tulsa is a two score underdog. Last year we saw Hayes clear this line by a mile against Oklahoma State in a 19-12 win, and in this game we should see not only a trailing script but also a sped up game due to the blistering pace of Eric Morris’ offense.
HiJack⬇️
The biggest thing I want to add here is that 18.5 completions is really a volume bet more than anything else. Hayes does not need to have some ridiculously efficient game to get there. If Tulsa is playing from behind and Oklahoma State is pushing tempo like expected, 32-36+ attempts is a very realistic range. At that point, he can be pretty average efficiency wise and still land over this number
I also like the fact that Hayes is coming back in Tre Lamb’s system. He is not walking into this game learning a new offense or being asked to figure things out on the fly. Tulsa already knows what it has with him, he has a full season of experience, and they should be much more comfortable letting him operate the passing game when the script calls for it
The matchup itself also gives us a cleaner path than a lot of completion props. We’re not relying on explosive plays, touchdowns, or some huge yardage output. If Oklahoma State’s offense forces Tulsa to answer possession after possession, Hayes should simply have enough opportunities to grind his way past 19 completions
Huge Shoutout to @772_Bets one of the most efficient cappers out there we will be in the lab all season
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🏈Week 0 #CFB #Prop plays. Early plays got killed by news: Jaxxon Warren, Jeremy Scott, & Nico Brown, but part of the game. Early Week 1 plays available in the @FantasyPtsCFB discord.
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Although maybe not done yet..
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There’s not many people like us real CFB degenerates but man I’d rather watch CFB over the Super Bowl.
Give me Kirk Herbstreit & Chris Fowler on the call of the ABC 7:30 game of the week in front of 100,000 people on a Saturday night in October all day long.
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Please do not fall for the trap of betting incentives tomorrow.
Rico Dowdle isn’t scoring specifically because of his incentive and Jauan Jennings isn’t getting fed for 66 during a divisional rivalry seeding game.
The main priority for every team is to win.
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Week 2 of #CFB Bowl #Props. Was a handful of yards away from a clean sweep personally!
The start of Bowl Week 3 🧵👇
Overall: 21/15 (58.3%)
Personal: 8/1 (88.9%)
Crispy: 8/7 (53.3%)
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