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Rabbit Hole
Joined November 2021
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People are addicted to easy and easy is the reason their life stays hard. What felt like a risk at your previous level becomes an ordinary decion at your current. Decisions that once seemed impossible become necessary for progression.
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One of my differentiated frameworks focuses on the non-linear relationship between catalysts and price. An asset can often endure multiple negative catalysts because bull psychology is resilient. Up to a point, price remains stubbornly strong, and sends the message that it wants to climb the wall of worry. Yet cracks form underneath the surface. And then one more catalyst stacked on top is the final straw, and the psychology breaks. Unfortunately, the Binance hack could end up being this for crypto. The difficult broader environment was absorbed. The AI cryptography fears were absorbed. The AI hacking wave fears were absorbed. This catalyst makes those fears tangible - it brings them to life. If the largest crypto exchange can't keep coins safe, who can? Perhaps hardened natives still won't be bothered, but there are many casual owners for whom this will serve as a visceral demonstration of the risks of owning an asset where any theft is unreversible. Banks can be hacked, but outflows would get reversed, or bailed out by the government. Great opportunities will eventually come around. Sometimes it's best to be patient and play defense.
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$ETH Hello darkness, my old friend.
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Issh retweeted
3 years later De ja vu …. ?
$BTC This wouldnt surprise me tbh
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Bitcoin 2023-2027: This is how I see it with TA weight of evidence. The writing in the red boxes is what's most important & applies to ALL assets 👇
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Uranium is looking interestinng again. Will post on my substack tomorrow.
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If you are mid to long term bullish, but derisking short term You are expressing the opinion that you will beat the market twice in the short term First time that you will derisk high enough and second time you will be able to buy back in low enough That's two additional short term trades you need to nail on top of your long term view
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Issh retweeted
Your favorite critical mineral, rare earth, uranium, drone, or defense company could have made all the progress in the world this year, and it would still be trading at new lows right now. Unfortunately, that’s the reality of the market right now.
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Issh retweeted
Every time AI masters something we thought required intelligence, we are forced to ask whether it actually did. We spent centuries believing that chess required genius. A machine won in 1997, and within a year we stopped calling chess the pinnacle of human intellect. We moved the line. We said creativity was the line. Then machines started composing music, generating images, writing poetry. We moved the line again. We said emotional intelligence. Empathy. Understanding context. Then people started preferring AI therapists because they were more patient, less judgmental, and available at 3 AM when the human ones were asleep. Every time the machine crosses a line we drew, we do not conclude that the machine has become human. We conclude that the line was never where we thought it was. And we redraw it. This has been happening for thirty years and almost nobody has stopped to ask what it is actually revealing. Most of what we called uniquely human was not. It was just complex. Complex enough that only a biological mind could perform it, until something else could. This should feel like a loss. Strangely, it is the opposite. Every time we discover that a trait we thought was essentially human turns out to be something a machine can do, what remains becomes more precise. We are not shrinking. We are distilling. For centuries we defined ourselves by what we could do that nothing else could. That definition was always unstable, because it depended on nothing else ever showing up that could do it too. AI is stripping away every capability that was never actually ours to claim. Not to diminish us. Because those things were never what made us human in the first place. What is left when you remove everything a machine can replicate? Not calculation. Not pattern recognition. Not memory. Not even creativity in the generative sense, because machines can generate. What remains is that it matters to you. A machine can compose a symphony. It has no need to. It can write a letter of apology. It has nothing to repair. It can plan a future. It does not have to live in one. Stakes require something to lose. And having something to lose requires being alive in a way that is not a metaphor. Every previous definition of humanity was a list of abilities. AI is burning through that list and showing us it was the wrong kind of list. What makes you human was never what you can do. It is that you are the one doing it. That it costs you something. That the outcome lands on your life and the lives of the people you love and the world you have to wake up in tomorrow. A machine can produce the answer. You are the one who has to live with it. That distinction does not shrink as AI gets more powerful. It is the only thing that grows. AI is not taking what makes us human. It is the first thing in history forcing us to finally figure out what that is. And the answer was never a capability. It was the fact that we are here at all, with something at stake, in a life we did not choose and cannot repeat, trying to do something that matters before it ends. No machine will ever know what that feels like. And no machine needs to. That is ours. It always was. We just could not see it clearly until something came along that could do everything else.
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Always remember, bigger idiots than you have done it.
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Issh retweeted
Yeah probably - what I've positioned for with 2720s failed acceptance - capped by monthly vwap
Otherside... ? is the question
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Issh retweeted
Welcome to Q4 Plan: - Dips below 75k are for buying (down to around 69k) - Target 98k, 110k GL bitcoin:native
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Ignore lower time frame price action. Uranium is a conviction trade. It’s all going to end up yellow eventually. In the end, we all buy uranium at the price we deserve.
Breaking!💥📰 Amazon $AMZN has entered into a $3B 20-Year Power Purchase Agreement with US utility Constellation Energy $CEG that will add another 190 Megawatts of new #Nuclear power generation at Calvert Cliffs in #Maryland⬆️⚛️👷⚡🔌🇺🇸🤠🐂 #Uranium 🌊🏄 businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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Issh retweeted
bad apple paitence
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$BTC It's a cruel world where BTC failing at the yearly open coincides with the biggest rip higher in US yields all year 2s +15bp. 10s +15.5bp. 30s +10bp. DXY +0.55%. That's not a crypto story. That's conditions tightening again, and BTC reprices it first. Two days ago the setup needed to hold. It didn't.
$BTC $ETH $SOL Failure to take out Monday's highs is disappointing in todays Asian session Clearly still sellers around up there. When a market can't clear an obvious level with a full session to do it, the path of least resistance flips Downside stops are the liquidity now 🫡
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$BTC I disabled my DCA above 75 in case a bigger up move was coming, but will gladly reenable it if the bear wants to continue. I will be satisfied with what I accumulated in the 60s and high 50s if I don't get another bite at the apple. I was confident in the trend change when the crash started but right now today it's more of a coin flip. On-chain looks favorable for a bear-to-bull transition. Momentum looks ready to turn if only it had some conviction behind it. Price still consolidating after the August pop. I'd like to see a new high print and hold, but it might want to pull back first. Until that new high holds, it's still within a range at the bear lows. If the market is going to be strong, let it show strength. It's funny so much bull posting has gone on past few weeks and BTC still hasn't even made a higher high in the downtrend.
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price action across risk assets feels like distribution to me.
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Issh retweeted
Can we please please not do this
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Bearish pinbar confirmed on the $BTC weekly candle. BTC never crossed the threshold for a trend reversal (82.8k). If it were to roll over here it puts a lower low very much back on the table for Bitcoin and a higher low back on the table for $ETH . Bulls now have to invalidate the brarish pinbar and still get above 82.8k otherwise downside risks go up dramatically.
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