CA is too big to fail at this point. There is a plan in place to shoe-horn @GavinNewsom into office. Then they have un-fettered access to TARP trillies to bail out the state... Thats also why no one's worried about the billionaire tax exodus that happening @friedberg!
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt"
"People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union.
"$250 billion to $1 trillion short."
"This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension."
"California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it."
How we got here:
"California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in.
$250 billion to $1 trillion short.
If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits.
There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits.
It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California.
So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services."
Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)
MUDGE retweeted
Let this sink in. California wealth tax architect Saez admits it here: he would let 80% of billionaires leave CA, liquidating Silicon Valley and its jobs, for an extra $2 billion per year in revenues. This is in a state that spends $325 billion per year, up by 68% since 2019.
I haven't been on twitter in a long time... Is this @GovPressOffice a parody account? Is this like The Onion but for CA Politics? Or is this a real representation of the Governor of CA office? Is this a deep fake with a NYT watermark?
Powell: ‘There will be bank failures’ caused by commercial real estate losses thehill-com.cdn.ampproject.o…
$1.5T CRE debt matures by 2025 + #Office values📉, %rate📈 making leases vulnerable to #CMBS debt transfers.
Meanwhile, the #FED is indicating that there will likely be more #InterestRate hikes.
That will put even more pressure on these compromised Office assets.
For all of the #ReTwitter in the multifamily space, I just got a quote for a $1.5M loan at 5.5% for a small multi deal, which is way better than I have seen or heard of in a while!
$1-7M
70-80% LTV
5.25-5.99% interest for multi
1.20 Debt Service Ratio
Can lend in all 50 States
This Nashville weather has been epic. Knowing that we’re from CA, several people have curiously inquired and asked if we are “holding up.”
We are having the time of our lives! Snow runs, sled hills, snowball fights, fireside chats, ice plunges with friends…
Snow days are the perfect backdrop for a run. It’s cold, but totally worth it. Just layer up! It's a breathtaking scene: tranquil, beautiful and serene. The snow creates unique acoustics & the crunching snow beneath your feet. The crisp, clear air. It’s magical.
Is anyone concerned about this?
The top 1% accounts for 40% of CA tax revenue?! That's approx 390,000 ppl holding a significant role in the state's financial stability.
What if a critical mass of that remaining 1% leaves? The impact on the economy & services could be significant!
foxbusiness.com/markets/weal…
The top 1% accounts for 40% of CA tax revenue?! That's approx 390,000 ppl holding a significant role in the state's financial stability.
What if a critical mass of that remaining 1% leaves? The impact on the economy & services could be significant!
foxbusiness.com/markets/weal…
Beyond headlines, consider the repercussions if a critical mass of those upholding traditional American values departs.
Both top earners & families vacating amidst a backdrop of legislated lawlessness, crime, homelessness, drug addiction & chaos.
👀😳👀
California to developers: Build apartments near transit! Pay union wages! Reserve 20% of units for poor people! It's urgent!
Developers to California: uh, guys, we'd lose our shirts if we tried.
Read new @TernerHousing's report to see why.
1/3
ternercenter.berkeley.edu/wp…
Y’all tuning in?! Who do you think has the most to win? Lose? Gain?
Is it obvious that Newsome is going to run for President? Or are we still pretending that’s not a thing?
Zeus Living is shuttering. They had 5,000 under management (as of 2019).
How many units controlled @ time of shutdown?
Major Markets: SF, LA, Seattle, Washington, Boston. How will these markets handle new vacancy?
Are there any major operators w/ concentrated exposure?
"Zeus Living has raised $150 million in debt and equity (about $125 million of that was equity) and its backers, besides Airbnb, include Initialized Capital, CEAS Investments, TI Platform, NFX, Opendoor’s Eric Wu and Y Combinator."
@DiMartinoBooth
techcrunch.com/2023/11/08/pr…
A CRE appraiser called me asking for a lease comp. They're calling asking for your Intellectual Property.
HERE'S HOW TO MAKE IT WORTHWHILE
Always ask for their lease comps, but the REAL VALUE is in the OFF MARKET INTEL THEY HAVE THAT CAN TURN INTO 💰🫰
KEY QUESTIONS TO ASK👇
WHERE ? This is key; however not easily secured. You need to know their Subject Property to be able to COMPARE it to YOUR Property. Location influences value, demand, and market dynamics. They called you. You are trying to help them.
GET THE PROPERTY ADDESS OR NO SHARING!