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Position trader - AIM investor -Greedy when others are fearful! Long term holds #MKA, #ABDX

Joined April 2017
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Great meetings in Warsaw today as we hit a major milestone for #MKAR @USEmbassyWarsaw @DFCgov @USEmbassyLLW @AsstSecStateAF #RareEarths @CommerceGov #MKA #Pulawy
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CFO Braam Jonker of CoTec Holdings passed 6M shares owned with an insider buy on Sept 18th! @CoTecCorp $CTH.v #REEs #REE #REEmagnet #copper #ironore #greensteel On Sept. 11th Kings Chapel increased by 1.25M shares to 48.5M! Very strong conviction here
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#MKA Once the $MKAR listing proceeds…Mkango will look more like a series of essentially “free-carried” opportunities:
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Great news today for Mkango $MKA.L holders today. The proposed Nasdaq spinout of Mkango Rare Earths Limited (MKAR) via Crown PropTech Acquisitions (CPTK) cleared its most dangerous execution hurdle, setting up a clear path to public listing while securing vital commercial protections for parent Mkango. I've gone through the small print here and analysed the deal so you don't have to... substack.com/@wizardofwindso… #MKA $MKA.V #MKAR #rareearths
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Took a wonderful month off of this platform to enjoy the summer - delighted to see this major update from #MKA on the progress of the $MKAR NASDAQ listing, in the fist week back. Two huge positives: 1) Very few changes to the F-4, none of them major or to do with the assets (the Songwe Hill rare earths mine, Malawi; and the Pulawy separation plant, Poland) and proposed operations. I suspect there's been plenty of comms between Crown / MKAR / MKA and the SEC, back and forth, to ensure this is the final version, with effectiveness to follow hopefully very shortly. 2) BlackRock is standing its ground ($4.6m) as an existing investor in Crown. A huge show of support from the world's largest asset manager in Songwe / Pulawy and our mgmt. team. Nothing is ever guaranteed on the markets (particularly so in the world of SPACs!), but my belief is that the business combination agreement completes and MKAR begins trading on NASDAQ in the next couple of months. MKA will hold circa 40m shares in MKAR (and depending on the size of the PIPE - currently pencilled in for $23m but I feel they will upsize it, given great market conditions for such a raise - a 70%-80% stake). At the listing price of $10, that will equate to an equity value of circa $400m. MKA currently has 389m shares in issue. $400m = £296m = 76.1p per share. MKA currently trades at 38p per share. The share price needs to double from here just to be trading in line with MKA's equity value of its soon-to-be-NASDAQ-listed majority-controlled subsidiary. And even if MKA's share price doubles, that would STILL attribute zero value to Mkango's downstream assets - HyProMag, Remloy, Mkango Rare Earths. HyProMag boasts existing nameplate capacity across two fully constructed plants in the UK and Germany of 700 tonnes per annum. The Remloy plant in Germany (also constructed and commissioned) has nameplate capacity of a further 500 tpa. Whilst actual production at all three plants is currently very small (they are all in a slow ramp up phase), the assets themselves are incredibly valuable. It takes years to get the stages these plants are at (concept study, feasibility studies x2, permitting, financing, construction, commissioning, debottlenecking...). Consider this: $USAR acquired Less Common Metals - a UK-based rare earths metal making company - last year for $225m. Its last reported annual revenue was £8.5m. Similarly, this year $UUUU acquired Australian Strategic Materials - whose key asset was its Korean Metals Plant (also rare earths metal making) - for $229m. Its TTM revenue at the time of the acquisition was circa US$7.3m. Using approx. current prices ($60/kg for HyProMag plants; $35/kg for Remloy plant - both my own assumptions), MKA's three plants could be generating a combined circa $60m pa in revenue (with a blended EBITDA margin of circa 40%) once existing nameplate capacity is achieved at all three. The CURRENT value of these three constructed and operational plants to a strategic buyer (namely, the four ex-China REE consolidators - $MP, $USAR, $LYC, $UUUU) is HUGE. And that's before the very many expansion possibilities for the group, not to mention the 40% free carry on HyProMag USA. In the UK, mgmt is looking to expand capacity from 350 tpa to 1,000 tpa; in Germany, from 350 tpa to 750 tpa. They have reiterated in RNSs earlier this week that they are looking at metal making / strip casting operations (seemingly at the Remloy site - which would make the group even more vertically integrated than market leader, MP, given its short-, medium- and long-loop recycling operations that MP does not possess). MKA has also repeatedly stated it is looking to establish HyProMag operations in Japan, South Korea, Canada and possibly in other European nations besides the UK and Germany. And then there's the "up to 10" plants in the US. All of this is possible due to HyProMag's industry-leading PATENTED recycling technology, which opens up colossal, as yet-untapped sources of NdFeB magnets lying dormant in Western nations. I am expecting huge government support, and supply and offtake agreements with tier 1 names to emerge in the coming months - both for HyP USA and for the HyP UK and Germany operations. The valuation disconnect to the international peer group (see image below) is just obscene. Today's news could be the catalyst for MKA's share price to start closing that gap. investegate.co.uk/announceme…
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#MKA thoughts: 1. US Magnet finishing front-running due to quality advancements by hypromag 2. Operating progress now to dovetail globally 3. Strategics, govts, PE, customers in the mix for funding a minority in a "process". Globally synchronised 4. MKAR timing converging
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Trump told a room of defense contractors to "do magnets." $MKA already did. NASDAQ spinoff coming soon. This is a direct competitor to the $MP dominance... for only £150 million market cap. Full breakdown is live now. $MKA
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Note that in China's Five-Year Plan for 2025-2030, Beijing is pushing for 4 hour+ energy storage. As a minimum, we're talking about 156GW/624GWh. Plenty of pie for all forms of chemical energy storages. Let's say Vanadium takes only 1% of that 624GWh minimum, it could consume ~48,000t of V2O5. That is 30% of China's 2025 V2O5 production. One cannot comprehend when I say BESS is in for the biggest bull ride driven by the rise of AI. China practically harvests the wind + solar to store them in a ESS for someone on the other side of the world to consume.
China plans to install more battery storage than it has built in its entire history 144 GW. That's China's cumulative energy storage at the end of 2025. The 15th Five-Year Plan for Carbon Peaking now puts the 2030 target at 300 GW. That's more than double than what they have now. 156 GW of anticipated installation capacity, with a goal to achieve in half a decade. The plan specifies "new energy storage types" which include electrochemical, compressed air, flywheel. Electrochemical will be doing the heavy lifting here, and electrochemical means lithium. LOTS OF LITHIUM. Vanadium redox flow batteries are also in the running, which drags vanadium onto a demand trajectory never seen in history. We've already seen previous example of Shenzhen. It was supposed to electrify its public bus fleet by 2020. It was done by 2018. Two years early. China's Five-Year Plan don't sit on a shelf collecting dust. They hit early, they hit hard, and the supply chain will need to keep up its pace. If 300 GW by 2030 follows the Shenzhen example, lithium and vanadium markets are in for the biggest bull ride of its life.
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🥇 Ferro-Alloy Resources is on track to be the world’s lowest-cost vanadium producer. Phase 1 project economics highlight a cash cost per pound (V2O5 equivalent basis) of $4.35/lb, and a cash cost per pound (net of by-products) of $0.36/lb. Read more ➡️ ferro-alloy.com/about-us/our…
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$1.9bn for VAC seems a bit cheap but I didn’t realise they had $250m+ of net debt et al so all in all good buy for $UUUU Seems like every RE company in the west is being acquired, notable names below $USAR buys LCM for $220m $USAR buys Serra Verde for $2.8bn $CRML buys Tanbreez $UUUU buys VAC for $1.9bn Massive government investments Arafura for a $750m loan guarantee Phoenix got $500m USD $UUUU $725m loan Lynas got $140m USD Element US got $30m Noveon got $28m #REE Altona got $4.5m and #MKA got $4.5m for its FEED study, puts these two firmly on the radar #MKA also has a $92m LOI and a $100m expression of interest for Songwe, plus three US DOD board members on $MKAR It’s amazing how hot this sector is yet investors don’t seem to be as hyped about it It will literally supply Robotics, which will be bigger and more impactful than AI + Space Tech combined May invest in a few more in the space, starting with a re-venture into Altona #REE
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#MKA now every serious RE business with US connections has major financial support [tho not EMAT, but they listed at $4bn]. Only 1 business left! Hypromag has major structural advantages over the others... The support now got to be for 3 hubs ..$150m equity, plus $92-300m debt.
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#MKA the SEC review, amendments, re-submission took 19 days The RNS wording changed from "will apply" for listing to "has applied" Confident of SEC approval within days, and a listing date confirmed, allowing c 25 days for final CPTK board sign off + listing immediately after
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📚 Part of a Bigger Series nitter.gq/roblun1/status/2033432… This HyProMag breakdown is part of my ongoing series on the new magnet‑recycling and separation ecosystem — covering how different technologies and business models stack up across Ionic Technologies, Cyclic Materials, REEcycle, ReElement, Ucore, and HyProMag, comparing product purity, processing routes, scalability, and where each fits in the emerging circular magnet supply chain. 🧲 HyProMag — The World's Most Carbon-Efficient Rare Earth Magnet Recycler While most recyclers dissolve magnets into chemicals and start again from scratch, HyProMag does something fundamentally different. Their patented Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap (HPMS) technology — commercialised from 45+ years of research at the University of Birmingham and backed by ~US$100M in cumulative R&D — simply exposes end-of-life NdFeB magnets to hydrogen gas at near-atmospheric pressure. The alloy crystal lattice absorbs H₂, expands, and spontaneously decrepitates into a fine, fully demagnetised alloy powder in minutes. That powder is then pressed and re-sintered directly into brand new, high-performance NdFeB sintered magnet blocks — no acid baths, no toxic solvents, no smelting, no chemical destruction of the alloy. This is the "Short Loop" — and it is the cleanest, most energy-efficient pathway in the entire magnet recycling landscape. HPMS is batch-based, which means every reactor run can produce powder with slightly different specifications depending on what went in. This is the key difference from continuous processors like Ionic Technologies, ReElements, Ucore and CyclicMaterials. It doesn't make the output unusable — but it does mean HyProMag's customers need robust incoming QC protocols and flexible sintering process parameters to accommodate batch-to-batch variation. 🏛️ The UK Government Is Quietly Subsidising HyProMag's Operating Costs Two policy mechanisms most investors have missed: ⚡ British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme — reduces electricity prices by up to £40 per MWh from 2027 ⚡ Network Charging Compensation Scheme — electricity relief increases from 60% → 90% by 2026 For a facility running hydrogen reactors, pressing lines and sintering furnaces 24/7, these subsidies are a direct, recurring reduction in Tyseley's OPEX — strengthening UK unit economics every single year from 2026 onward. 👨‍🔬 The Inventor — Professor Allan Walton The man behind HPMS deserves his own moment. Professor Allan Walton, Professor of Critical and Magnetic Materials at the University of Birmingham and Co-Director of the Birmingham Centre for Strategic Elements and Critical Materials, has led the Magnetic Materials Group since 2011 — the only research group in the UK exclusively dedicated to the processing and recycling of permanent rare earth magnetic materials. The technology he and his colleagues built rests on 45+ years of continuous University of Birmingham research and approximately US$100 million in cumulative R&D funding — with the original HPMS concept co-developed alongside the late Professor Emeritus Rex Harris, former Head of the Magnetic Materials Group, and Honorary Fellows Dr. John Speight and Mr. David Kennedy. Under Professor Walton's stewardship, more than £2.4 million in dedicated sustainable manufacturing research has been directly supervised, producing the postgraduate talent — including doctoral researchers Malik Degri (recycled sintered magnet characterisation) and Alec Durrant (microstructural processing) — who now form the scientific backbone of the Tyseley commercial operation. This is not a startup that licensed a university patent and moved on. The inventors are still in the building, still publishing, still improving the process and that continuity of deep domain expertise is a structural moat that no amount of capital can quickly replicate🔬 ♻️ Short Loop. Massive Impact. The numbers are stark: 🌍 95% less CO₂ vs primary mining — just 2.35 kg CO₂-eq per kg of sintered magnet vs ~84 kg for virgin production (ISO-14067 verified by Minviro) ⚡ 88% less energy than the mine-to-magnet primary pathway 🚫 Zero acid waste | Zero organic solvents | Near-zero chemical footprint ✅ Can produce up to N42SH high-temperature grade magnets without adding primary heavy rare earths 🏭 Three Continents. Three Facilities. Right Now. 🇬🇧 Birmingham, UK — Tyseley Energy Park Officially opened January 15, 2026 by the UK Minister for Industry ▪ First commercial rare earth magnet production in the UK in 25 years ▪ Nation's only commercial-scale sintered magnet plant ▪ 100 tpa single-shift → 300 tpa multi-shift capacity ▪ Reactor processes >400 kg rare earth alloy per batch ▪ Funded by £4.5M Innovate UK + EPSRC + Advanced Propulsion Centre + EU Horizon. 🇩🇪 Pforzheim, Germany — HyProMag GmbH (90% owned) ▪ First commissioning runs completed April 9, 2026 ✅ ▪ Official opening ceremony: April 28, 2026 🎉 ▪ Permitted for up to 750 tpa NdFeB magnets and alloys ▪ Identical engineering design to Tyseley — full tech standardisation ▪ Academic partnership with Pforzheim University 🇺🇸 USA — HyProMag USA LLC (50/50 JV with CoTec Holdings, TSXV) Hub & Spoke network across three states: ▪ Texas Hub (Dallas-Fort Worth): ~100,000 sq ft | 1,147 tpa NdFeB input → 750 tpa sintered magnets | First production target Q1 2027 ▪ South Carolina Spoke (Williston): Inserma robotic HDD pre-processing — <3 seconds per drive | >60,000 drives/week ▪ Nevada Spoke: Second Inserma robotic pre-processing deployment ▪ US EXIM Bank: US$92M Letter of Interest issued for Texas hub 💰 HyProMag USA — Texas Hub Economics *(BBA USA Inc. + PegasusTSI Inc. Feasibility Study)* ⚙️ Output: 750 tpa sintered NdFeB magnets 🏗️ CAPEX: US$125.4M 💵 All-In Cost: US$19.63/kg vs market US$55/kg 📈 Post-Tax NPV: US$262M → US$503M (forecast) 🔄 IRR: 23% → 31% ⏱️ Payback: under 4 years 🚀 3-Hub Expansion by 2029 (TX + SC + NV) ▪ 4,656 tpa NdFeB capacity ▪ Conceptual NPV: US$2.18B ▪ IRR: 38.7% at forecast prices ▪ Targeting 10–25% of total US NdFeB demand 🌐 hypromag.com | $MKA $CTH 🤝 OEM Validated — Four Major R&D Consortia 🔵 SCREAM (Innovate UK): Automotive validation with Jaguar Land Rover, GKN Automotive, ZF Automotive, Bowers & Wilkins — GKN formally confirmed recycled magnets replicated virgin-grade motor performance 🔴 RaRE (£2.6M Innovate UK/OLEV): End-to-end supply chain for Bentley Motors ancillary motors — 100,000 unit/year assembly line viability proven with Unipart 🟢 REAP (Innovate UK): Consumer audio recycling with European Metal Recycling — flat-panel TVs and automotive loudspeakers 🟡 REEsilience (EU): European e-mobility supply chain security modelling 🏗️ Feedstock: Multi-Stream & Robotic 🖥️ Hard disk drives (HDD Voice Coil Motors — <3 sec/drive robotic extraction) 🚗 EV & hybrid traction motors 🔊 Consumer audio, flat-panel TVs ⚙️ NdFeB manufacturing swarf (only 60–75% of REO ends up in finished magnets — swarf is enormous) 🤖 Industrial robotics & actuators 🌬️ Wind turbine generators 🏛️ Corporate Structure textMkango Resources (TSX-V/AIM: MKA) └── 79.4% → Maginito Limited ├── 100% → HyProMag Ltd. 🇬🇧 ├── 90% → HyProMag GmbH 🇩🇪 └── 50% → HyProMag USA LLC 🇺🇸 (50% CoTec Holdings, TSXV) ▪ Mkango £12.5M raise closed (Peel Hunt, H&P Advisory, Alternative Resource Capital, Red Cloud Securities) — funding German acquisitions, UK/DE capex, working capital ▪ US NASDAQ listing via SPAC or IPO under evaluation for 2026–2027 🌐 Geopolitical Endorsement ▪ 14-Nation Minerals Security Partnership (USA, UK, AU, CA, FR, DE, JP, IN, KR + EU) formally endorsed HyProMag at the London Metals Exchange, October 2023 ▪ One of only 2 recycling projects selected from the entire 17-project MSP global portfolio ▪ Directly underpins UK Vision 2035 — 20% of UK critical mineral demand from domestic recycling by 2035 ▪ Aligned with US Executive Order 2421 — domestic mineral acceleration mandate ▪ UK Dept. for Business & Trade: up to £50M in critical minerals project funding available 📅 TRL & Milestones — TRL 8–9 ✅ 2018 — Founded, University of Birmingham spin-out ✅ 2022 — Pilot: 50–100 kg batch processing proved | MSP nomination ✅ 2023 — Maginito acquires 100% HyProMag | Bentley supply chain proven | MSP formally endorsed ✅ Nov 2024 — US Feasibility Study: US$262M NPV confirmed | EXIM Bank US$92M LoI ✅ Jan 2026 — Tyseley Birmingham opens — UK's first commercial magnet production in 25 years ✅ April 9, 2026 — Pforzheim commissioning runs completed 🇩🇪 🔜 April 28, 2026 — Pforzheim official opening 🎉 🔜 Q1 2027/28 — Texas first commercial production 🇺🇸 🔜 2029 — 3-Hub USA: 4,656 tpa NdFeB ⚠️ The Honest Feedstock & Quality Caveat HyProMag's HPMS technology is only as good as what goes into it — and that is both its greatest strength and its most important constraint. ⚠️ HyProMag Feedstock — The Real Talk 🔬 Quality in = Quality out HPMS preserves the alloy — so the recycled powder inherits the exact chemistry of the input scrap ✅ Clean, unoxidised NdFeB in → High-grade sintered magnet out ⚠️ Degraded, oxidised or contaminated scrap → rerouted to Medium or Long Loop — slower & costlier The Short Loop process works by preserving the original NdFeB alloy chemistry, which means the recycled powder will inherit the exact chemical composition of the input scrap — no more, no less. Feed it a high-grade, clean, unoxidised N42SH magnet and you get a high-grade powder back. Feed it degraded, heavily oxidised, or contaminated scrap and the output quality degrades accordingly, often requiring rerouting to the slower and more expensive Medium or Long Loop pathways instead. This is not a flaw unique to HyProMag — it is the fundamental thermodynamic reality of short-loop recycling. 🛡️ HyProMag's Answer: 3-Loop Architecture ♻️ Short Loop — clean scrap → direct re-sinter 🔄 Medium Loop — borderline material → chemical purification (with Less Common Metals + ADEY Innovation) 🧪 Long Loop — heavily degraded powder → Mkango's £1.1M hydromet pilot at Tyseley The company has been transparent about it, building a three-loop fallback architecture precisely to handle every grade of input: Short Loop for clean scrap, Medium Loop (with Less Common Metals and ADEY Innovation) for chemically borderline material, and Mkango's £1.1M Long Loop pilot at Tyseley for heavily degraded powders 📦 Feedstock Volume — Near Term vs Long Term ⚠️ HyProMag Feedstock. On feedstock volume, the near-term pipeline is well-supported — HDDs, manufacturing swarf, consumer audio, and some early EV motors are already flowing. However, the big feedstock wave — the one that justifies 4,656 tpa US expansion by 2029 — depends critically on EV traction motors reaching end-of-life at scale. The first mass-market EVs sold from 2017 to 2020 will not broadly hit the recycling stream until the late 2020s, meaning the Texas hub's ramp to full capacity is structurally tied to how quickly the EV fleet turns over. That is not a crisis — it is a sequencing reality — but investors and followers should understand that feedstock volume for the larger hubs grows with the EV scrappage curve, not ahead of it. Now (well supplied): 🖥️ HDDs — robotic Inserma extraction, >60,000 drives/week ⚙️ Manufacturing swarf 🔊 Consumer audio / flat-panel TVs 🚗 Early EV & hybrid motors The Big Ramp (timing-dependent): 🌊 Mass EV traction motor scrappage wave — first mass-market EVs (2017–2020 vintage) won't broadly hit recycling until late 2020s — 4,656 tpa US expansion by 2029 depends on EV fleet turnover accelerating 📌 Bottom Line This isn't a crisis — it's a sequencing reality HyProMag's feedstock ramp grows with the EV scrappage curve, not ahead of it, Near-term volumes are solid, The big numbers require the EV wave to arrive on schedule 🌊 🌐 hypromag.com Mkango: $MKA | CoTec: $CTH #HyProMag #HPMS #HydrogenProcessing #RareEarths #NdFeB #MagnetRecycling #CriticalMinerals #ShortLoop #CircularEconomy #CleanTech #EVs #WindEnergy #DefenceSupplyChain #UKManufacturing #MadeInBritain #GreenSteel #Tyseley #Birmingham #Pforzheim #Texas #CriticalMaterials #SupplyChainResilience #Neodymium #Dysprosium #Decarbonisation #MineralsSecurityPartnership #Mkango #CoTec @roblun1
🧲♻️ Magnet Recycling Spotlight 🚀 Over the next few weeks this series will cover different magnet‑recycling technologies and business models across players like, Ionic Technologies, Cyclic Materials, REEcycle, ReElement, Ucore and HyProMag, comparing product purity, processing routes, scalability and where each fits in the emerging circular magnet ecosystem. 🧲 Not all magnet recycling is created equal. These 6 companies represent 6 distinct technology + business model combinations — and together they map the entire Western supply chain response to China's rare earth dominance, the 6 pure-play recyclers🧵👇 Tier 1 — Pure-Play Magnet Recyclers (the 6) Ionic, Cyclic, HyProMag, ReElement, REEcycle, Ucore → Magnet recycling IS their entire business model. Solvay lies in between, accepts recycled feedstock as one input stream among several. REEtec of Norway sits alongside Solvay, it is building a large-scale separation facility at Herøya funded by LKAB specifically to accept recycled and mined mixed REO feeds and convert them into separated oxides for European magnet makers. Tier 2 — Integrated Players with Recycling Arms MP Materials, USA Rare Earth/LCM, Energy Fuels, Carester, Momentum, Geomega, S → Recycling is a strategic component within a larger mine-to-magnet or multi-metal business Tier 3 — Established Asian Incumbents Shin-Etsu, Proterial, Santoku → Commercial at scale for 15+ years but within closed Japanese supply chains — the benchmark the West is trying to match 1️⃣ Ionic Technologies 🇬🇧 Long-loop Solvent Extraction using MAIL™ (Multifunctional Amide Ionic Liquids & Ligands) → Separated REOs (>99.9% purity) | Continuous processing | Lowest variability | Feed-agnostic ✅ Published LCA ✅ Feasibility Study ✅ UK Govt £12M Grant ✅ FORGE designated The precision specialist — highest purity, proven IP, ready to license globally 2️⃣ Cyclic Materials 🇨🇦 Medium-loop Leaching (MagCycle + REEPure) → Mixed Rare Earth Oxide (rMREO) | Hub & spoke model | Real plant operating NOW ✅ US$162M raised ✅ South Carolina plant confirmed (2028) ✅ VAC + Solvay offtakes signed The volume play — feedstock-agnostic, massively funded, scaling fast 3️⃣ REEcycle 🇺🇸 Medium-loop Leaching using Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) → Rare Earth Formates | 99.8% recovery efficiency | Low-temperature chemistry ⚠️ Pilot stage | No LCA or feasibility study published | Dependent on downstream separators The chemistry innovator — compelling science, still proving economics at scale 4️⃣ ReElement Technologies 🇺🇸 Long-loop Continuous Chromatography (pharmaceutical-grade) → Separated REOs (99.999% purity) | Marion Indiana Supersite targeting 10,000+ tpa ✅ US$200M equity facility ✅ DoD qualified ✅ POSCO + ERI feedstock partnerships The purity champion — highest specification product, aggressive US scaling NASDAQ: AREC 5️⃣ HyProMag 🇬🇧🇺🇸 Short-loop Hydrogen Decrepitation (HPMS) → Recycled NdFeB Alloy Powder | Re-sintered directly into new magnets ✅ Commercial Birmingham plant OPEN Jan 2026 ✅ Dallas-Fort Worth Hub secured ✅ ISO LCA: 85% lower carbon vs primary mining | 4,600 tpa USA target by 2029 The speed champion — shortest loop, lowest carbon, first to commercial in UK TSXV/AIM: MKA 6️⃣ Ucore Rare Metals 🇨🇦🇺🇸 Long-loop RapidSX™ (Advanced Column Solvent Extraction) → Separated Heavy + Light REOs (Dy, Tb, Sm, Gd, Nd, Pr) | 3X faster than conventional SX ✅ US$22.4M DoD contract ✅ 5,700 hrs proven operation ✅ Louisiana SMC commercial 2026 The heavy REE specialist — defence-critical SmCo magnets, filling the most acute Western gap TSXV: UCU The Western magnet recycling ecosystem is deliberately segmented. End-users — magnet makers, OEMs, and defence primes — will choose based on four dimensions: 🔬 Product spec — Separated oxide (Ionic, ReElement, Ucore) vs mixed oxide (Cyclic, REEcycle) vs alloy powder (HyProMag) 🌍 Geography — Feedstock proximity + energy costs + geopolitical mandate (US IRA, UK DRIVE35, EU CRM Act) 🌱 Sustainability — LCA proof required by OEMs (Ionic ✅ HyProMag ✅ others pending) ⚡ Scale timing — Who can deliver volume WHEN the EV and wind ramp demands it (2026–2030 critical window) The US government is deliberately not picking one winner — it is funding across all three loops: 🔬 Long-loop separated REO → Ucore (DoD, US$22.4M), USA Rare Earth (Commerce, US$1.6B LOI) 🧪 Medium-loop recycling → REEcycle (DoD DPA Title III, US$5.1M) 🏭 Full supply chain → DOE US$134M open program + US$1B broader critical minerals The Demand Explosion Adamas forecasts the global magnet rare earth oxide market will increase more than 7-fold by 2040, from US$9.7 billion today. Critically, they project approximately US$7.3 billion worth of magnet REO demand will go completely unsatisfied by 2040 if supply doesn't grow beyond their base case — driven specifically by Dy, Tb, and NdPr undersupply. adamasintel.com/global-marke… @IONIC_RE @IONICTECH_UK @ussmetals @anduriltech @CMA_Minerals @IXR2THAMOON @timhorizonmet @ThalesDefence @northropgrumman @LockheedMartin @BoeingDefense @DeptofWar @DoWCTO @Viridis_VMM @ucore @LCM_Metals @CyclicMaterials @MPMaterials @ReecycleInc @SolvayGroup @ReElementTech @EMRmetal #VIRIDION @EU_Commission @ENERGY @VulcanElements @RE_Exchanges @DiscoveryAlert @USRareEarths @DeptofWar #MagnetRecycling #RareEarths #CriticalMinerals #CircularEconomy #SupplyChain #Sustainability #EVs #WindEnergy #NdFeB #IonicTechnologies #CyclicMaterials #HyProMag #ReElement #Ucore #REEcycle #MAIL #GreenTech
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Trading-Places retweeted
#MKA all to NdPr oxide or equiv.... [additionally of course we will be higher value further downstream, ie magnets, that Lynas does not do]: Pulawy 4,400 US Recycle 4,650 UK target 1,000 Germ target 750 Japan target ?
#MKA even more starkly, Lynas are expanding their production to 12,000T by 2030 and their mkt cap is US $14B. If you include likely Japan production in the "knowns" below you get to MKA approx 12,000T, 2030. £150m mkt cap one day soon will be blown out of the water, wake up!
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#MKA even more starkly, Lynas are expanding their production to 12,000T by 2030 and their mkt cap is US $14B. If you include likely Japan production in the "knowns" below you get to MKA approx 12,000T, 2030. £150m mkt cap one day soon will be blown out of the water, wake up!
#MKA how long can the mkt ignore the sheer scale of what is being developed across countries / the supply chain? Pulawy to be producing essentially the same as Arafura Nolans now.. a true tier 1 asset. Add in recycle and by 2030 on current knowns we will be 10,750T= >2x Nolans
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Despite its ~800% share price gain over the past 12 months, Mkango #MKA remains chronically undervalued versus the rare earths international peer group. Here's a list of the key listed pure-play rare earths companies. Note that only the top two - $MP and $LYC - are actually mining. All of the others are explorers / developers. Simply put, I believe that – all else being equal - Mkango should have the third highest mkt cap of this peer group (after only MP and LYC). Now – it may be that the reader thinks the likes of USAR, DTR and CRML to be chronically overvalued. Such an opinion may indeed be valid. But when cash flows are unpredictable at best, and in fact non-existent in most cases above, then relative valuation analysis really take priority. I am not stating explicitly that I believe that MKA should be valued at >$2.85bn right now (i.e. higher than USAR). But I am stating that it should be worth more than USAR. ...... MKA has two divisions. The first one - the original business - is centered upon MKA's proposed mine in Malawi, named Songwe Hill. This asset is nearing construction-ready. It has a definitive feasibility study, all environmental permits approved, and a mine development agreement with the Malawi government. Songwe Hill has secured support from some of the most powerful of agencies in the space: i) SH has been designated a Strategic Project by the European Commission under the Critical Raw Materials Act; ii) The EU has already financially backed SH (via a small direct equity investment through its EIT RawMaterials body in Q3 2025); iii) SH is a part of the Minerals Security Partnership, a US-led alliance; iv) The US Government has now provided a $4.6m grant to fund the FEED at SH, with a further $100m loan for construction now under consideration. Look at the above list of peers. SH is years ahead of the deposits of DTR, CRML, REEMF, in terms of time to first production. It is also the most widely backed by various major government agencies (no other deposit has such wide ranging support from both the US, the MSP and the EU). As such, were SH listed on a US exchange, it’s simple to see that it could be valued at more than CRML (currently ~$800m). ...... But there’s an additional aspect to MKA’s upstream business. It is in the process of designing a separation plant in Pulawy, Poland to process the feedstock from SH. This plant will materially enhance the economics of SH. Pulawy has received the same support as SH has from the EU (see i) and ii) above). The good news for Mkanog shareholders is that mgmt. noted the colossal gulf in valuation attributed to rare earths projects by optimistic US investors, compared to dullard UK investors – and are in the advanced stages of launching the two projects onto NASDAQ via a SPAC merger deal. The new company is to be called Mkango Rare Earths ($MKAR). The value of MKA’s share in MKAR at the listing price will be $400m (being 40m shares at $10), and will likely amount to a circa 80% shareholding. The deal is likely to complete before Christmas. Using MKA’s current number of shares in issue (346m), the value of the stake at IPO price would be circa 86p per MKA share. That’s an 85% premium to MKA’s current share price of 46.5p. …… But the more valuable part of MKA is its second business – HyProMag, a rare earth magnet recycling and manufacturing company. In summary, HyProMag is the only company in the major ex-China territories that - through patented IP – can use hydrogen in its process to recycle rare earth permanent magnets. I provided a summary of the tech and its implications, in this blog back in March: mylesmcnultytrades.substack.… So: owing to its unique, heavily protected recycling process, HyProMag is going to be the cheapest manufacturer of rare earth permanent magnets outside of China. It can unlock native sources of NdFeB material in dozens of nations across the world (that is to say, old magnets embedded in scrap throughout waste chains) at a substantially lower cost than anyone else can. HyProMag is already operating its first magnet recycling/manufacturing plant in the UK; will complete construction of its second plant, in Germany, in the next 2-3 months; and intends to commence construction at its first plant in the US in the next 2-5 months. It is also progressing plans to construct plants in Japan, as well as Canada and South Korea (although the launch plans for these three additional nations have yet to be revealed). In short, HyProMag already has the largest international footprint in the rare earth magnet recycling / manufacturing space of any company in the world. And in several years, could have the largest capacity of any business outside of China. ...... To revert to the above peers, given its vastly superior margin, not having to rely on others’ feedstock, and its rapidly expanding international footprint; I believe that HyProMag should be trading at a substantial premium to USAR – the only listed magnet manufacturer besides MP in the US (although in reality, USAR will not likely be producing magnets until late next year). Yet as at the time of writing, USAR’s mkt cap is some 13 times higher than MKA’s. Yes, USAR has just made a $200m acquisition. But MKA more than offsets that by having a listed asset in just 2-4 months (being its 80% stake in the soon-to-be-listed MKAR) worth $400m at the IPO price. …… The absurd discount exists due to Mkango being listed in the UK, and USAR being listed in the US. An example that really sums up the difference in valuations ascribed by US investors, versus UK investors: Yesterday, USAR’s new CEO mentioned in an interview after hours that the company was in close contact with the Trump administration. The stock price increased by 10%, or circa $250m, in after-hours trading. A simple mention that they were even in talks with the US government, resulted in US investors driving a mkt cap increase in a mere 4 hours of more than Mkango’s entire current mkt cap. To note, Mkango (and its US partner, CoTec) have been open that they have been in extensive talks with the US government for over a year now. Indeed, they have already secured a letter of interest from the US Government to provide a low cost loan of up to $92m for the construction costs of the first HyProMag plant in the US. …… The obvious solution? The combined HyProMag companies are listed on NASDAQ, ASAP. It is quite simple to see that by mid next year, MKA could have a 75-80% stake in MKAR that has a mkt cap of $800m+, and a 60-65% stake in HyProMag that has a mkt cap of $2bn to $3bn – and possibly a lot more, if concrete plans for Asia expansion with a major partner (JOGMEC involvement?) are announced beforehand. The UK market is a disaster, but spin outs / transfers to superior exchanges abroad (in this case, NASDAQ!) can provide exceptional investment opportunity. I can see MKA doing another 9x from 46p, over the next 12 months.
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#MKA recent RNS showed #CTH continues to invest in major front-end costs. to me suggests 90%+ odds of full finance req IMMINENT. Trump team saying decisions by end Aug. Gut feel $30m grant per plant w 3 plants... near $100m. MM's marking it down increases the odds to 95%.
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#MKA Titilating US listing model, giving upside to buyers, autumn next year. Assumes tax credits and 3 hubs closed, w further 3 in adv discussions. Listing = $3.33bn. Look through to MKA @ £2.50p/s Interesting $232m value to MKA on close for hub 1, expect Nov All to play for!
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Another major milestone for @MkangoResources #MKA this morning! First successful production runs of the commercial-scale Hydrogen Processing of Magnet Scrap ("HPMS") vessel. Commissioning of next three plant sections: a) powder processing plant; b) magnet manufacturing presses; and c) sintering furnaces - to be completed this quarter, by end September. The achievement today however is by far the most important. The HPMS vessel is HyProMag's proprietary technology, which enables the company to do what no one else in the rare earths industry can do: Recycle permanent magnets that still have a load of other scrap attached to them (plastic casing, other bits of metal), at exceptionally low cost, into powder that can be directly used to make new permanent magnets. This means that the HyProMag businesses, wherever they are located in the world, are not reliant on secure supplies of light or heavy rare earths from any mine, be it in China, Myanmar, Australia, the US... Imagine a big washing machine drum, and throwing in a hundred corners chopped off from hard-disk drives, along with a few dozen fingers and thumbs of Optimus humanoid robots. The near-atmospheric pressure inside the drum, infused with hydrogen, decrepitates the magnets contained in the scrap. The resulting powder can be sieved and then repressed into new magnets, which are then stuck in a furnace to densify and full magnetize them. With the patented HPMS technology (the big washing machine-esque drum), HyProMag can tap into native sources of NdFeB material, in most countries in the world where it choose to roll out operations. The commissioning of the next three sections of the plant (sieving, magnet pressing, furnacing) hold very little execution risk. They are off-the-shelf, not proprietary, tried-and-tested apparatus - being used by many industry participants. This is why today's news is so significant. The commercial-scale HPMS vessel is working as expected. ...... The HyProMag UK operation will only generate modest revenue in the next six months (this is not unexpected), but it is about getting it right and establishing a blue print for the rollout of plants into additional territories. The next plant, Germany, comes online in Q4, and the major US plant in H1 2027. And today, mgmt stated "South Korea", alongside Japan and Canada, as territories in which they are evaluating further rollouts. Including $MKAR's operations - Songwe Hill in Malawi, and Pulawy in Poland - MKA should have cash-generating operations in five nations within 2-3 years, and that could increase to eight, assuming HyProMag expansion into those additional three territories. Mkango has by far the largest geographic footprint of any rare earths company in the world, up and down the entire chain. I think the market is missing just how rapidly this business is growing. ...... Financials. NdFeB magnets ae currently priced at $60-65/kg, but that is excluding the ex-China premium that is currently being applied. Industry participants are stating that this is around $10/kg to $30/kg (1). At $80/kg and using the top-end of the production target stated in the RNS today (350 tonnes per annum), HyProMag UK could be generating as much as $28m in gross revenue by the end of next year, at an EBITDA margin of >50%. And now we know that the business is looking to at least double that output to >700 tpa over the following two years (2027-28 - see my previous post on MKA, yesterday). Now consider that the Germany plant, due to commence commercial production this year, will be looking to hit a similar output - up to 350 tpa, by end of 2026, and that it's also evaluating expansion plans beyond that 350 tpa. The USA operation is much larger - it now has a base case of almost 1,600 tpa output by end 2027. Incredibly, HyProMag USA is currently evaluating options to create three of those 1,600 tpa plants. And what would be the planned capacity of any rollout in Japan, which is the second largest NdFeB magnet market in the world, after China? South Korea and Canada too? In short, the revenue growth here over the next three years is shaping up to be really special. Several hundred million $ at least in 2028, assuming 3,000 tonnes across the US, UK and Germany. And as the US feasibility study shows (see RNS, 25.11.2024), the EBITDA margin is fantastic, around 65-67%, with NdPr pricing affecting it very little. ...... The UK investment community is still evidently struggling to get to grips with MKA. The valuation of the $MKAR spin out - at 90p per share equivalent - has confused a load of people. I've seen some ask why US investors would back it at that valuation. Regardless of whether it makes sense or not, many US investors will only buy shares that are listed on domestic exchanges. Odd? Yes, but it is true. Look at $CRML, an early stage Greenland rare earths deposit, probably 7-8 years from production, currently valued at ~$350m. Look at $REEMF, a US-based project (equally far away from actual production), valued at ~$385m. Songwe Hill is near-construction ready, backed by the powerful MSP as well as by the EU. I personally think US money will be thrown at $MKAR, in the PIPE funding and then at IPO. So how to value MKA, right now? I think a 25% discount to the IPO price for $MKAR, to account for execution risk. That's 68p, today. And what for HyProMag? 6-8x annualized EBITDA by end 2027 would be $504m to $672m (or 114p to 152p). [Here, I have assumed MKA's share across the three projects being circa 1,400 tpa by end 2027; a product price of $100/kg, and a blended EBITDA margin of 60%, to arrive at MKA's share of EBITDA being $84m pa. But investors should run their own numbers however they see fit.] ...... Anyway, to summarize: a major de-risking event today. I think fair value for the shares is some 5-6x higher than where the price is at now - and I've detailed why I think this. There'll be sellers at every level, but in my view this is going much much higher in the near term. (1) reuters.com/sustainability/c…
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