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Second 5% mild correction of 2026 after today's huge drop. Volatility is the toll we pay to invest.
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$GSIT Q2 2027 earnings: GSI Technology's chip costs jump, and its software launch slips
GSI Technology, a maker of high-speed memory and artificial intelligence chips, is facing a manufacturing squeeze just as its research spending peaks. Second-quarter revenue fell 7% from a year ago to $6 million, while gross margin dropped to 48.5% on higher wafer and assembly costs. Chief executive Lee-Lean Shu projected third-quarter gross margin will fall further to between 38% and 40%.
โข Net revenues: $๐.๐๐๐ (-6.6% from a year ago)
โข Gross margin: ๐๐.๐% (missed 53โ55% outlook)
โข Cash and equivalents: $๐๐.๐๐ (down $7.9M from last quarter)
โข Q3 outlook: ๐๐๐ฐ (revenue $5.0โ6.0M; gross margin 38โ40%)
โ๏ธ ๐๐๐ซ๐๐ข๐๐ญ: ๐ด Bearish
The story got worse because the legacy memory business is losing its ability to help fund the company's AI chip development. Meanwhile, the software toolkit needed to win commercial AI customers slipped from September into calendar 2027, and a Taiwan vendor investigation helped double quarterly cash burn to $8 million. On the positive side, a Taiwan county government began live AI video monitoring using the company's chips.
The question now is whether January price increases can restore memory profits while the company waits for commercial AI chip orders. Either customers accept higher prices and gross margin recovers in the fourth quarter, or supply bottlenecks and customer pushback keep cash burn near $8 million a quarter. Fourth-quarter gross margin and revenue outlooks in February 2027 will tell.
Full article with charts - link in bio
๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐๐ฌ๐
๐ข ๐๐๐ข๐ฐ๐๐ง ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ญ ๐๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ข๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐
GSI Technology is trying to turn its Associative Processing Unit (APU), a chip designed for artificial intelligence searches and edge computing, into a commercial business. In the second quarter, the Hsinchu County government in Taiwan accepted the initial stage of Phase I of the Smart Guardian Eye project. The system now provides "live video monitoring and interpretive incident reporting", chief executive Lee-Lean Shu said.
Government agencies are also paying more of the chipmaker's research bill. Funding under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR), a US government contracting programme that offsets research and development costs, rose to $556,000 from $279,000 a year ago and $336,000 last quarter. That progress validates the Gemini-II chip in real-world use, so the team now plans to submit a proposal for Phase II of the Taiwan project.
What to watch: the Phase II proposal and whether the quarterly filing shows non-memory sales moving above 1% of revenue. Winning a production contract would show that government trials can turn into recurring commercial orders.
๐ข ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฉ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ
While overall revenue fell 6.6% from a year ago to $6.0 million, demand held up in the company's specialized static random-access memory (SRAM) business, which supplies fast memory chips for military systems and chip-testing equipment. Shipments to military and defense customers rose to 46.7% of total shipments, up from 28.9% a year ago and 31.3% in the first quarter.
โข Military and defense shipments: 46.7% of total shipments, up 17.8 percentage points from a year ago
โข KYEC sales: $1.2 million, or 19.7% of revenue, up 50% from $802,000 a year ago
โข Nokia sales: $376,000, or 6.2% of revenue, up 88% from $200,000 a year ago
Those gains mattered because they kept second-quarter revenue inside the $5.7 million to $6.5 million outlook range despite lower orders elsewhere. What to watch: military and defense shipment share in the third quarter, which will show whether defense orders can cushion the drop in total revenue to $5.0 million to $6.0 million.
๐ป ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐ฌ๐
๐ด๐ด ๐๐ฎ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ฅ๐๐ง
GSI Technology relies on profits from its legacy memory chips to help pay for its AI research. In the second quarter, gross margin fell 6.3 percentage points from a year ago to 48.5%, missing the company's 53% to 55% outlook. That marked the fifth straight quarter in which gross margin landed below management's own plan, as cost of goods sold rose 6.4 percentage points to 51.5% of revenue.
Previously, the chipmaker blamed margin misses on customer and product mix. Now it also faces "supply chain constraints for wafers and outsourced assembly, burn-in and test operations", the company said. Because those Taiwanese manufacturing bottlenecks are limiting product availability and raising unit costs, Shu set the third-quarter outlook even lower:
"Our current expectation for the third quarter of fiscal 2027 is for net revenues in the range of $5.0 million to $6.0 million, with gross margin of approximately 38% to 40%," Shu said. That plan cuts gross margin by another 9.5 percentage points at the middle of the range, shrinking gross profit by roughly a third in a single quarter.
What to watch: fourth-quarter gross margin outlook on the next earnings call in February 2027. A failure to return toward 50% would mean higher wafer and assembly bills are permanent rather than a one-quarter squeeze.
๐ด๐ด ๐๐จ๐๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ก ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ฌ
Last quarter, management declared that technical validation for its Gemini-II AI chip was complete and shifted its focus to commercial sales. Central to that effort is an AI-assisted software development kit (SDK), a tool that lets customers move their existing AI models onto GSI Technology's chips without rewriting code from scratch. Three months ago, the company said the toolkit was on track for release in September 2026.
September passed without a customer release. Instead, the software team is still running an "internal trial and validation of the alpha version", Shu said. He now expects to give initial customers a beta version by late December 2026, pushing the full commercial release into the first half of calendar year 2027. Meanwhile, the company is looking for "securing a strategic partner who could expand our capabilities to enter new markets where we lack resources to pursue on our own", Shu added.
This delay matters because system integrators and commercial buyers cannot test their own AI models on Gemini-II until the software is ready. Pushing the commercial toolkit into calendar 2027 means the chip is still not generating material product sales, which undercuts the claim that commercialization is already underway.
What to watch: confirmation on the third-quarter call that initial customers received the beta software before December 31, 2026. Another delay would push commercial adoption of Gemini-II even closer to the arrival of its successor chip, Plato.
๐ด๐ด ๐๐๐ฌ๐ก ๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฉ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐๐
A year ago, GSI Technology raised equity to repair its balance sheet and fund Plato, its next-generation low-power AI chip slated for design completion (tape-out) in March 2027. While that cash buffer remains large at $69.2 million with no debt, the company is spending it twice as fast: operating cash burn jumped to $8.0 million this quarter from $3.9 million in the first quarter.
โข Research and development: $6.0 million, up 42.0 percentage points to 100.5% of revenue
โข Selling, general and administrative: $4.3 million, up 25.7 percentage points to 71.5% of revenue
โข Operating loss: $7.4 million, or $6.0 million by our math excluding one-offs, vs $3.2 million a year ago
Two items drove the wider loss. Research spending rose on "external design services related to the development of our next-generation Plato processor", which will continue through March 2027. Overhead costs jumped because the company spent $2.0 million on legal and professional fees for an "internal assessment of certain vendor matters within our foreign operations", partly offset by a $600,000 vendor settlement gain.
What to watch: quarterly operating cash burn in the third quarter now that the vendor probe has concluded. Even without the $1.4 million net legal hit, lower gross profit in the third quarter will keep cash burn elevated until Plato design fees end in March.
๐ด ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ค๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ ๐๐ข๐๐ง'๐ญ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฐ๐๐ซ
Several standing risks around customer concentration, memory product mix and AI chip sales were not readable in the earnings release and await the quarterly Form 10-Q filing.
โข Cadence Design Systems orders: omitted from the release's customer breakdown after swinging from $1.4 million a year ago to $0 in the fourth quarter and $465,000 in the first quarter; the filing's customer table will show whether orders dropped again.
โข Receivables concentration: one customer owed 62% of accounts receivable in June 2026; the filing's credit footnote will show whether that balance was collected.
โข AI chip revenue share: legacy SRAM chips were roughly 99% of revenue last quarter; the filing's revenue footnote will show whether Gemini-II generated material sales.
โข SigmaQuad mix: the high-margin memory line's share of shipments was not in the release; the filing or conference call will show whether it fell further.
๐ ๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐ก๐๐ฆ๐๐ฌ
๐๐ฆ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐๐ข๐ค๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฆ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ญ ๐
๐๐๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ
To counter higher wafer and outsourced assembly costs in Taiwan, GSI Technology is raising prices immediately on new chip orders and on January 1, 2027, for existing customer backlog. Shu said those price increases, along with better product supply, should "support a recovery in revenue and gross margin beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027", which starts in January.
โ โข โ โข โ
๐ฒ ๐๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฌ
๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฎ๐ญ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ (๐๐๐๐): ๐๐.๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ accelerating
Up 29.8% from 29.6 million a year ago and up 3.0% from 37.3 million last quarter. The higher share count stems from last year's direct stock offering, at-the-market share sales and employee option exercises, which funded the cash balance but diluted existing shareholders.
๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ (๐๐๐๐): $๐.๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ accelerating
Inventory โ raw silicon wafers and finished chips waiting to be sold โ rose 27.7% from a year ago and 13.8% from $4.08 million in March 2026, even as quarterly revenue fell 6.6%. Building stock ties up cash while assembly bottlenecks delay customer shipments.
๐๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐๐๐ข๐ฏ๐๐๐ฅ๐ (๐๐๐๐): $๐.๐๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ reversing
Accounts receivable โ money owed by customers for delivered chips โ rose from $2.51 million in June 2026 despite lower sequential revenue, though it remains down 14.6% from $4.24 million in March 2026. Slower collections contributed to the $8.0 million operating cash outflow this quarter.
โ โข โ โข โ
๐ฎ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐๐๐ง๐๐
๐๐ ๐๐๐ญ ๐ซ๐๐ฏ๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ฌ: $๐.๐โ๐.๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง โ decelerating
New. The plan calls for revenue to fall 9.5% from a year ago and 8.6% from this quarter at the $5.5 million middle of the range. Wafer and assembly constraints are limiting shipments, and backlog price increases do not take effect until January 1, 2027. Revenue has landed inside the company's range in all eight of the last guided quarters.
๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง: ๐๐.๐โ๐๐.๐% โ decelerating
New. The plan has gross margin dropping 9.5 percentage points from this quarter and 13.7 percentage points from a year ago at the 39.0% middle of the range. Higher wafer and outsourced testing costs hit before customer price hikes take effect in Q4. The company has missed its gross margin range for five straight quarters; by our math, if the pattern holds, gross margin would land near 36.2%.
โ โข โ โข โ
โ ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ซ๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ $๐ ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ซ๐๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐ฏ๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ?
GSI Technology spent $2.0 million on legal and professional fees to investigate vendor matters in its Taiwan manufacturing operations, recovering $600,000 in assets. Investors need to know what went wrong and whether that vendor disruption caused the assembly bottlenecks hurting third-quarter sales.
๐๐จ๐ฐ ๐ฆ๐ฎ๐๐ก ๐๐ข๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง ๐๐ฒ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ฆ๐ฌ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ซ?
The company disclosed sales to KYEC and Nokia in the release but omitted Cadence Design Systems, which bought $1.4 million of chips a year ago and $465,000 last quarter. Without that figure, it is unclear whether a major customer stopped ordering again.
๐๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐ฆ๐๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ฒ ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐๐ฉ๐ญ ๐๐๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐๐๐ง๐๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ง๐ ?
Management plans to raise prices immediately on new orders and on January 1, 2027, for existing backlog to fix a 38% to 40% gross margin. Because customer orders are typically cancellable before delivery, higher prices could reduce order volume in the fourth quarter.
๐๐ก๐ฒ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐จ๐จ๐ฅ๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ฅ๐ข๐ฉ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐๐ซ ๐๐๐๐?
The AI-assisted software development kit was supposed to launch in September 2026, but it is still in internal alpha testing with commercial release pushed to the first half of calendar 2027. Management has not explained what technical hurdles delayed the software.
NWS retweeted
The White House's new manufacturing report names $OKLO and $TE as the companies behind the largest energy investments in its tally with ~$1.7B going toward nuclear fuel recycling and more than $500M into a Texas solar cell plant.
Pretty telling where next wave of U.S. energy investment is actually going as more of supply chain gets pulled back onshore.
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โIt was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.โ - Jesse Livermore
Stay patient my friends.
Hold your winners.
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UBS projects DRAM capacity to grow ~147% by 2030 reaching ~89 EB:
โข Samsung ~31 EB (+63%)
โข $MU ~26 EB (+100%)
โข $SKHY ~22 EB (+38%)
โข CXMT ~10 EB (+67%)
But even that would cover less than a third of UBSโs full agentic AI buildout scenario which would require ~282 EB of DRAM by 2030 as AI CPUs already carry ~3x memory of traditional processors.
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$TEM Q3 EARNINGS
โข Revenue $412M vs Est. $409M
โข EPS $0.07 vs Est. ($0.08)
โข EBITDA $26M vs Est. $19M
โข Diagnostics Revenue: $304M (+20% YoY)
โข Data & Applications: $108.1M (+33% YoY)
FY26 Guidance
โข Revenue $1.61B vs Est. $1.59B
โข EBITDA $65M vs Est. $65M
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A lot of people are asking when will AI stocks and technology bounce?
A few things are needed:
1. Energy & oil stocks need to find a top or move sideways (consolidation). Companies like $XOM and $CVX (we hold a big position), continue to stay strong. Once this tops out of "pauses," tech will find a low.
2. Semiconductors to form a potential bull-flag (or a 1:1 measured move) on the weekly timeframe. You can see the $SMH ETF is almost there; a few % lower and could find a stronger floor as well.
3. Healthcare, a traditionally more late cycle mover, would also need to find a top or move sideways like energy/oil. We can see that healthcare ETF $XLV still does NOT show bearish divergence or buyer exhaustion yet.
4. Consumer staples ETF $XLP is a pure defensive sector. It's JUST starting to breakout, which would also put some pressure on tech names. Keep an eye out on this sector as well.
So how should you play this to make sure you survive?
โข On our end, we continue to remain BALANCED
โข We hold great traditional defensive names like $MRK, $KO, $PG, and others
โข We also only hold the top strongest fundamentally BEST growth names
โข For any high-volatility and risky names, we hold a smaller allocation of 2.5% max for each stock, with 10% max total portfolio allocation.
We're getting close for AI stocks for at least a larger relief bounce soon. But there's still some pressure here.
Rain or shine, continue to stay invested and buy MORE with your paychecks. You will become rich by doing so.
Survive, then thrive. Let's go. ๐ช
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The neocloud comeback is on after Elon Musk called compute demand โridiculousโ on $SPCX earnings call:
โข $CRWV +7%
โข $NBIS +6%
โข $HUT +5%
โข $WULF +4%
โข $CIFR +4%
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Pre-market and after-hours trading look like the regular session with the lights dimmed. They are not.
Far fewer buyers and sellers show up, so the gap between bid and ask widens and a single order can move the price. News hits in those hours, and prices lurch on thin volume.
If you trade outside regular hours, use a limit order every time. A market order in a thin session is an invitation to get filled badly.
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$AMZN is backing a proposed 960 MW nuclear project with $AEP and $XE that would deploy 12 small modular reactors at a former coal power plant in Indiana.
Amazon would help fund early development while AEP evaluates the project with the former coal site providing existing grid infrastructure that could significantly reduce time needed to bring new power generation online.
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$EOSE PRELIMINARY Q3 EARNINGS
โข Revenue: $83M vs. Est. $81M
โข Gross Margins: -54% (improved from -71% last quarter)
โข Backlog: $765M (~3.2GWh)
โข Cash: $344M
FY26 Guidance
โข Revenue: $315M vs. Est. $305M
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Retail investor: Nasdaq $QQQ just had its worst week since June. You buying the dip?
Me: Not every dip is a buy
Retail investor: wait what? I thought you were the "stay invested guy"
Me: I am. Iโm not selling anything. But โshould I throw a bunch of NEW money at itโ is a different question
Retail investor: ok so is it a buy
Me: My stock sheet has $QQQ & $VOO about 5% above fair value right now. Even after this week.
Retail investor: so itโs still expensive??
Me: A little. The market ran hot & now itโs pulling back. Itโs closer to fair, not a fire sale
Retail investor: so what do you do
Me: Keep buying shares like normal. But Iโm not cranking up my sold puts/ bought calls just yet.
Retail investor: so you WANT it to drop more
Me: Iโd be happy if it did. The more red, the more compelling it gets
Know what something is worth before you call it a dip...
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$FE - FirstEnergy Pennsylvania Electric Company Announces Extension of Exchange Offer for its 4.150% Senior Notes Due 2028 and 4.550% Senior Notes Due 2031
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๐บ๐ธ S&P 500
Two Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.66%.
The model gauges if the market is leaning bullish, bearish or neutral.
Subscribe on๐ isabelnet.com
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๐ Read the Daily Blog on the Website
๐ isabelnet.com/blog/
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๐บ๐ธ Capex
Initial consensus forecasts have consistently underestimated AI hyperscalers' capex growth in recent years
๐ isabelnet.com/blog/
@GoldmanSachs #AI #capex #tech #stocks

































