Why debate people in the media when you can debate them in the market.
Finland
Joined September 2010
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Andrrre retweeted
While SpaceX was throttling Ukrainian interceptor-drone terminals on the ground in mid-October, SpaceX’s STARLINK-35856 and a SpaceX-lobbied FCC license condition (DA 23-797, Condition 16) pinned a U.S.-cleared radar satellite (ICEYE-X36) in orbit, holding it in place while Russia’s COSMOS 2612 sprinted >380 km and braked into a <1 km lock for 42+ hours.
For the bloggers snooping for VCs in our inbox "discovering" that the 0.401 km (400.741 m) Oct 15 alert is a public-catalog SGP4 calculation: our published table literally labels it "Public GP Vintage 1 (Public GP Baseline)." The story isn't a third-party web display. It's:
1. Public catalog (0.401 / 0.711 km) vs. SpaceX’s own exported operator ephemerides (1.925-2.003 km, >15 km vector split at TCA).
2. SpaceX’s April 24, 2023 FCC intervention imposing Condition 16 on ICEYE US.
3. Zero Starlink maneuver while X36 was boxed into a sub-kilometer Russian hold.
Our brief lists private SpaceX portal/CDM logs as OPEN falsifiers. Ask SpaceX for them, though it would be awkward if non-public claims contradicted SpaceX's publicly disclosed ephemerides.
And to all the defense-tech VCs and AI devs suddenly following this account: We don't build models for engagement or chase narratives. We built a market-structure and sovereign-risk engine, ran the raw orbital, regulatory, and commodity ledgers through it, and followed what the machine surfaced.
Model IV drops next, proving the Russian intercept was feasible only inside the SpaceX pin window, and tracing the payoff across Russian refinery recovery, E-Ring conflicts, and defense-contract capture. @streetwiseprof
Model III: How Musk and the Trump Admin Saved Rosneft's Refinery by Pinning a U.S.-Operated NATO Satellite With Russian Origins While Shutting Down Ukraine's Air Defense $SPCX $TSLA
In Models I and II, @streetwiseprof and I proved SpaceX (N = 1, 99.9% probability) held U.S.-operated NATO radar satellite ICEYE-X36 still for a Russian space weapon (COSMOS 2612). Today, Model III proves what that pin actually did on the ground, why Russia hunted this specific satellite, and how one orbit links Russian oil to the Persian Gulf:
1. The Synchronized Squeeze & The Ryazan Trigger: After the Oct 9 Putin-Trump call (>300,000t Russian diesel waiver), Musk's Oct 13-14 Starshield speed cap cut Ukrainian air-defense hits by 23%. Because long-range refinery drones fly on pre-programmed autonomy guided by ICEYE-X36 radar rather than live Starlink links, Ukrainian drones still struck Rosneft's flagship 349 kb/d Ryazan refinery on Oct 15 AM.
2. Shutting Down the BDA Loop (+122,150 bbl/d Restored): Hours after the Ryazan strike, SpaceX's false 401m Starlink alert froze ICEYE-X36 (-96.64% dodge drop) while COSMOS 2612 sprinted in and held at 640m for 40 hours. Blinding X36 shut down the BDA loop: follow-on refinery restrikes plunged 76.2%, and Ryazan recovered 3.28x faster (t = -8.29), restoring +122.15 kb/d of Russian refining capacity and protecting $10.3M-$85.3M in stake-weighted margin for Rosneft's 19.5% owner QIA (which joined ICEYE's >EUR 550M Series F secondary buyout 8 weeks earlier).
3. Why Russia Hunted X36 & Why Redundancy Failed: Russia chased X36 for 5 months because ICEYE launched four early hulls (X4-X7) on Russian military rockets at Vostochny and Plesetsk (the exact base that launched COSMOS 2612) and uses 27 shared Stellar battery units. Russia had the 2020 blueprints and needed a 40-hour close hold (+57.90 dB) to bridge the 2024 U.S. hull. Although 6 rival U.S. SAR satellites (Capella/Umbra) flew over Ryazan on Oct 15, zero restrikes occurred because they lacked automated HUR/Maven pipeline integration and Title 50 shutter clearance.
4. One 16-Minute Orbit From Russia to the Gulf & Diego Garcia: COSMOS 2612 is now parked 66-99 seconds (-502 km) behind X36 on the descending track that flies from Ryazan/Kyiv (~08:02 UTC) to the Strait of Hormuz and Prince Sultan Air Base in 6.4-8.2 minutes (a 4.8-7.1 minute conditional geometry lead) and the U.S. Navy's VLS reload hub at Diego Garcia in 16.6 minutes.
(Full 3-page institutional brief and downloadable PDF in reply below. Model IV drops next.)
Andrrre retweeted
BREAKING: At least 8 flights across Europe have been targeted by bomb threats today.
Reported incidents involve:
✈️ LOT — Warsaw to Brussels
✈️ Aer Lingus — Dublin to Rome
✈️ Finnair — Helsinki to Rome
✈️ Two flights at Copenhagen Airport
✈️ Three aircraft in Bulgaria — two diverted to Sofia and one to Plovdiv
Andrrre retweeted
Varainhoito on mielenkiintoinen pisnes.
Siinä 20 miljoonan omaisuuden luonut yrittäjä tulee S-mersullaan ja raksavehkeet niskassa Helsingin keskustaan kuuntelemaan rahanteko-neuvoja henkilöltä joka tulee duuniin metrolla, asuu velkaisessa kaksiossa ja ottaa 3.900€ + bonarit.
Andrrre retweeted
This is why we Bitcoin
Paraguay’s decision to shut down a digital bank used by nearly a third of its population has left people struggling to figure out how to pay for everything from rent and groceries to bus rides. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Andrrre retweeted
Tragic irony of course that the Bitcoin haters get debanked
They could have spent the last few years building and spreading unstoppable financial infrastructure but instead they let their ideologies blind them
🔴 URGENT: Our bank has cut us off from our own money.
Our bills haven’t stopped. Neither can our work. Help us build an emergency fund to keep DiEM25 going. Even €10 makes a difference.
Donate now: i.diem25.org/donations/to/de…
Andrrre retweeted
History will show that no one did more to promote left-wing ideas than Donald Trump, and no one did more to advance the Palestinian cause than Benjamin Netanyahu.
Andrrre retweeted
Cyberattack on France’s national blood service (EFS) via its refrigeration contractor Coolworld. Hackers reset freezers keeping blood donor samples at -30°C to a target of 110°C. The thing that stopped it from destructive impact was an on-call technician who noticed the temperatures going up. Frozen plasma intended for transfusion was stored there too. Fortunately nothing was destroyed. This was a cyberattack on a sensitive layer of healthcare. From frozen peas to boiling plasma in three weeks...?
Andrrre retweeted
Helsingin kaupungilla on noin 200 viestinnän työntekijää. Suunnilleen yhtä paljon kuin Miltton Oy:llä koko yrityksessään.
Silti Helsinki ei saanut viestintäsuunnitelmaa tehtyä omin voimin, vaan osti sen Milttonilta 30 000 eurolla.
Miksiköhän verotus on niin kireää?
Andrrre retweeted
do you realize how insane this is?
- we can solve crimes
- we can locate people who need rescuing
- we can expose fake location claims
and the gov can spy on us even more :)
Andrrre retweeted
Update: I was correct. Pwn AI nerds don't have elite ball knowledge and don't know anything about goop
As is tradition, it was something stupid.
Stay in your lane, dorks. This is goop city
No, Binance was not most likely compromised from a web browser zero day chain.
As is tradition with large compromises, it is almost certainly something ridiculously stupid, like the DevOps guy trying to get Fortnite cheats, or they called someone with a shitty American accent and said they need to log into their machine for something
Andrrre retweeted
Looks like vibe coding is going well.
‼️ Apps built with the AI app-maker Lovable left passport numbers, payment information and 200,000 chat messages open to anyone, no login needed.
German security firm Crissy Field scanned 159,041 Lovable projects and found databases with email addresses readable on 7,403 sites.
Lovable promises no coding skills are needed. Its terms make customers responsible for their apps and data.
Lovable told German business daily Handelsblatt the problem is industry-wide.
Andrrre retweeted
The situation this morning in Europe:
A cyberattack is disrupting supermarket refrigeration systems across several European countries, including Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Estonia and Ireland.
• What is happening: A vulnerability in specific refrigeration control software is allowing attackers to remotely manipulate freezer systems, causing temperatures to rise as high as +50°C.
• Supermarkets are facing massive food losses, with fresh, chilled and frozen products being discarded due to food safety risks. Some stores have experienced temporary closures and delayed openings.
The issue involves connected refrigeration systems whose software and security vulnerabilities are being exploited, allowing attackers to interfere with temperature controls remotely.
Retailers are responding, working with cybersecurity specialists and taking affected products off sale to protect consumers.
Andrrre retweeted
Onhan tämä surullista. Kasvatustieteilijät jopa myöntävät, etteivät tiedä, mistä oppimistulosten lasku johtuu, mutta eivät halua mahdollistaa kausaalitiedon tuottamista.
Koulutuksen ja arvioinnin tutkijat vastustavat kansallisten kokeiden tuomista Suomen peruskouluihin.
Oppimistulosten lasku ei ratkea lisäämällä mittaamista.
hs.fi/suomi/art-200001237581…
Andrrre retweeted
Iran war.
CLARITY Act blocked.
First Fed hike in 3 years.
Treasury yields at multi-decade highs.
Strategy sold 6,916 Bitcoin.
COLDCARD exploited.
Ledger exploited.
Binance hacked.
I genuinely don’t think people realize how much bad news Bitcoin has absorbed.
If this isn’t a sign of resilience and potential seller exhaustion, I don’t know what is.
Andrrre retweeted
Major BTC exchange hacks/failures and post-event returns (approx closing prices, CAGR for multi-year):
Mt. Gox (Feb 2014, ~$550): 1Y -54% ($254); 3Y ~29% CAGR ($1,180).
Bitfinex (Aug 2016, ~$547): 1Y +395% ($2,711); 3Y ~163% CAGR ($10,518).
Coincheck (Jan 2018, ~$11,171): 1Y -68% ($3,602); 3Y ~43% CAGR ($32,570).
Binance (May 2019, ~$5,800): 1Y ~+55%; 3Y ~73% CAGR.
FTX (Nov 2022, ~$17k): 1Y +117%; 3Y (to late 2025) ~67% CAGR (~$80k range).
Pattern: short-term dips common, long-term strong recovery.
Andrrre retweeted
Earnings season is off to a good start with 122 companies reporting so far and 80% beating estimates by an average 560 bps. Trailing earnings are up 33% from a year ago and the n12m estimate is up 39%. The difference between the n12m estimate and trailing earnings is 19% and decelerating. That suggests that a peak in the second derivative is forming. Investors rarely pay up for peak earnings growth, and this in part explains why the P/E-multiple is down 16% from a year ago. The other factor is of course the rising cost of capital.
