Focused on compounding by finding and holding multibaggers in size. Looking for the “fat pitch”.
Joined January 2016
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Listened to $FOUR call yesterday and mostly agree. Felt like another run of the mill earnings call.
- macro continuing to affect GB and to some extent restaurant SSS (disappointing)
- payments revenue up 14% organic
- announced another 1b buyback starting Jan 2027, which represents >100% of next year’s adj EBITDA
GB execution I think has been objectively bad and shareholders have been hurting at this point for 18 months, but there are reasons to believe 2027-28 will be better than ‘25-26 with all of the infrastructure finally built out to cross-sell and in different geos
Maybe unpopular opinion and the market definitely doesn’t agree with me but $FOUR earnings look fine? Definitely not perfect by any means but…
1) Guidance cut was basically telegraphed in Q3 if the war continued (it did)
2) Spreads have been stable and above objective for a while, so no race to the bottom it seems
3) Organic growth YTD 10%
4) No relevant maturities until 2032 + pretty strong cash conversion (breathing room)
5) Initial framework for 2027 is MSD-HSD with management acknowledging conservativeness and 0% SSS. Definitely lower than anticipated but company not trading as if it were a DD grower
Communication and guidance need to improve for sure
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FOUR and FTAI might be the worst possible wartime portfolio (w spiking oil prices) in existence, so congrats to me. Hoping the next 12 mos is better than the last 12.
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$FOUR Q2 actuals were strong, core biz and cross sell progress/FY27-28 story on track. Temporary weakness from ME headwinds/FX in the guide doesn’t change that.
A bit incensed at the lack of discussion of the M&A mentioned in footnotes, it better be good considering opportunity cost of buybacks here or storing that cash on the b/s. But at the end of the day the stock is far too attractive to sell here given the inflection that is coming into next year. I still trust the mgmt team to allocate capital, and the move down to this extent is disconnected from fundamentals. 🤷🏽♂️
$FTAI announces its first official Power deal this morning, noting it’s “substantial” but not offering # of units or average revenue per unit. Earnings call will be informative but investors should realize this isn’t the whole year’s worth of contracts and this is a supply constrained space so “arpu” may come in higher than their initial communicated estimate previously.
Biggest takeaway for me is they’ve proven out the concept and more are coming. Surprised the stock is still trading where it is
$FTAI is (27%) over the last month, probably on jitters of lower quarterly product margins and a delayed power contract. Obviously the word “imminently” should not have been used on the Q1 call wrt signed power contracts but is the market really going to let this biz trade at mid teens fwd earnings for what is effectively a timing delay? I think this rerates quickly once signed and have been adding recently below $230. Let’s see
$FTAI is (27%) over the last month, probably on jitters of lower quarterly product margins and a delayed power contract. Obviously the word “imminently” should not have been used on the Q1 call wrt signed power contracts but is the market really going to let this biz trade at mid teens fwd earnings for what is effectively a timing delay? I think this rerates quickly once signed and have been adding recently below $230. Let’s see
Kinda obvious looking at $PYPL buyout details that the whole payments sector is trading too low across the board. Oversold and deserves to catch some bids, let alone the companies that are growing revs/profits in excess of inflation…
$FOUR “Merchants with automatic [tax free shopping] eligibility detection typically have twice the tax-free transaction volume than businesses without automatic detection, driving additional revenue and increasing customer satisfaction”
Powering the experience economy means making every moment of commerce feel effortless.
Together with Global Blue, we're expanding Shift4 One across Europe with an integrated solution that brings payments, Dynamic Currency Conversion, and Tax Free Shopping into a single handheld device.
Following launches in the UK, Ireland, Spain, and Germany, this best-in-class solution will continue rolling out across Europe throughout 2026 — helping businesses serving international customers simplify operations and deliver a more seamless checkout experience.
Read more: shift4.com/news/shift4-and-g…
I don’t think I’m as dumb as I’ve felt over the last 6 months, and I don’t think I’m as smart as I’ll feel in 12-24 months. Stepped away from twitter for a long while because what can you even say when you’re down in excess of (40%) ytd much of the last 3-4 months while half your feed doubles their money on semis lol. Do believe I will be vindicated here ultimately. 🙏🏽
Q2 2026 portfolio update: Being early isn’t the same as being wrong, but it can sure look and feel like that for stretches. May have concentrated a bit too early in this one, but time and patience is the friend of a good business. Leaning in re $FOUR, max pain for the biz/stock right now.
YTD performance: very bad
~114% long
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Q2 2026 portfolio update: Being early isn’t the same as being wrong, but it can sure look and feel like that for stretches. May have concentrated a bit too early in this one, but time and patience is the friend of a good business. Leaning in re $FOUR, max pain for the biz/stock right now.
YTD performance: very bad
~114% long
Put selling be like
If you saw $999.07 on the ground, you’d pick it up, right? Jannik Sinner🔐
Couple things:
•Sinner is GUARANTEED to win
•Foazn won’t wake up at 5am to watch
I make money in my sleep; you wake up to make money #levels
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$FOUR solid growth guide overall, GB weighing but will take time (we knew that). Good buyback usage so far. Main question from the slide deck is explicitly mentioning whether the expected TRA settlement cost is reflected within the ‘incremental flow through’ of the 2026 adj FCF slide. Would go a long long way in clarifying.
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$HIMS has achieved federal govt agency BINGO! That’s now FDA, HHS, DOJ, SEC, and the middle spot is free! 🥳
Linares is one of the most incredible marketers I’ve ever seen. No one is doing it like him (not an endorsement). I mean..what kind of message is this?
$LMND $ROOT The discourse that Lemonade and Root are competing against each other is so incredibly silly, I cannot comprehend it. Both have immaterial market share in personal lines right now. They are the disruptors aiming to whittle away market share from the incumbents. Bulls of each should be rooting for the success of both as it represents validation of the greater insurtech category
I would like to long $OSCR again at some point. After a washout year for the industry in ‘25 no one believes in guidance, but with every quarter it’s met the market’s confidence will grow.
Diving just a tad deeper, Oscar’s specialized plans (after Hims I won’t use the p-word) position it for share gains and an early leader in ICHRA as that gradually rolls out over the next 1-2 decades. Seems pretty darn attractive here and stock is actually lower than my buys last summer.
Oscar Health with a Giga 2026 outlook.
Revenue guidance of $18.9b (+61%)
$350 million earnings from operations vs 3650 market cap.
SGA expense ratio scaling to 16% vs 17.5% in 2025 and 19.1% in 2024.
$OSCR
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$TOST $FOUR The mix of software, hardware & payments isn’t going anywhere. (No surprise to anyone that’s been paying attention.)
Toast CEO when asked about AI impact: “[We’re] the most important piece of technology restauranteurs use around their business [where] all the work gets done…and it’s really broad.” ⬇️
Monster results from $RELY, stock is probably still cheap (I did like the idea when I looked at it but no position)
Remitly $RELY
- 26% revenue growth
- Active customers up 19% (locking in future revenue growth)
- New CEO from AMZN payments/marketplace
- Huge operating Margin expansion
- New products rapidly gaining traction
Stock was trading at close to 2x gross profit before today
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I’ve been a $LMND skeptic for a long time and the jury is still out on bottom line, but my goodness that auto GLR (gross loss ratio) is an incredibly positive rate of change. Seems like a really good report
Fantastic Q4 for $LMND
Record low GLR, record low Car GLR TTM (see note), Europe numbers looking great, home/renters unbelievably low.
Share price fully deserves to run after this (NFA, IMO)
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It’s crazy how much good, quality growth stocks have been beaten up over indiscriminate AI fears – or maybe an excuse for fund managers to sell and rotate into different sectors that are “safe” and going up (momentum friendly). For the first time in a long time, long term investors/stockpickers with a multiyear horizon should get pretty excited imo