@RobLockwood

AGA | “as the legislative history directly confirms, Congress did not want sports betting to be conducted on derivatives markets.” - Kalshi

Joined March 2009
  • Tweets6.6K
  • Following604
  • Followers1.5K
301Media
400-leg sports gambling parlay that Kalshi wants high schoolers to think is “investing.”
TickerTracker
@TickerTracker_14h
The Centipede Combo of the Week had a 98.5% hit rate. Good effort out there. - 400 legs - $21.50 to win $5,000 (~+23000) - 6 misses (1 void)
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and don’t forget: @mansourtarek_ himself said sports betting on Kalshi would be… ILLEGAL. His words. Not mine. Though “illegal” is an adjective many state AGs now use to describe Kalshi sports gambling.
Daniel Wallach
@WALLACHLEGAL14h
Replying to @WALLACHLEGAL
Kalshi has done a complete 180. While now claiming that sports-event contracts are permissible under federal law, it repeatedly asserted throughout 2024 that such contracts were antithetical to federal law. Can't have it both ways. The receipts are below.
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Dustin Gouker
@DustinGouker15h
More than 70% of Kalshi's volume came from parlays for the seven-day period that ended on Sunday, per @TickerTracker_.
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Daniel Wallach
@WALLACHLEGAL14h
Kalshi has done a complete 180. While now claiming that sports-event contracts are permissible under federal law, it repeatedly asserted throughout 2024 that such contracts were antithetical to federal law. Can't have it both ways. The receipts are below.
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Mr. Kalshi Atty, Intern? Here’s @mansourtarek_ pumping “Bet, Bet” Bet billboard ads. What “economic consequence” do 400-leg sports parlays have? Why did Tarek say sports betting on Kalshi would be “illegal” ? Why did Kalshi say this in court about congressional intent?
Rick Heaslip
@RickHeaslip14h
Factors that matter when determining if an event contract is a swap: • Is the event “associated with a potential financial, economic, or commercial consequence”? 7 U.S.C. § 1a • Is it “commonly known to the trade as a swap”? 7 U.S.C. § 1a • Is it an off-exchange state-regulated wager? (If so, no). 17 C.F.R. § 1.3 • Is it within the CFTC and SEC’s further definition of ‘swap’? 15 U.S.C. § 8302 Factors that do not matter: • Did a marketing intern call it a “bet” in an Instagram ad in 2025
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Victor Rocha
@VictorRocha120h
This is the fight we want. Unelected federal bureaucrats claiming powers Congress never granted them versus the sovereign rights of states and tribes to regulate gambling within their own jurisdictions.
CFTC
@CFTC21h
.@CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction: cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressRele…

CFTC Sues to Block State Enforcement in Utah Amid Ongoing Efforts to Preserve Jurisdiction

The CFTC announced today it has filed a lawsuit against Utah to block the state’s efforts to shut down CFTC-registered contract markets using state laws.

cftc.gov
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Daniel Wallach
@WALLACHLEGAL14h
Kalshi also told federal courts sports-event contracts are the “classic example” of “gaming,” lack “real economic value” or “inherent economic significance,” are unlikely to serve any “hedging” purpose, and “Congress did not want sports betting conducted on derivatives markets.”
Dustin Gouker
@DustinGouker17h
Kalshi literally advertised itself as sports betting for a chunk of 2025!
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
David Forman@dp_forman17h
Great news, teenagers can now “only” lose $30,000 a year on @Kalshi
Nick Devor
@nickdevor_20h
Inbox: Kalshi adds $2,500 monthly deposit limits for 18- to 20-year-old traders. Also, "When a new trader with a balance over $1000 puts more than 25 percent of that balance in a single trade, Kalshi will show an alert encouraging them to diversify their trading."
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Kalshi allows high schoolers to circumvent state laws and sports gamble. "Limits" announced after the AGA updated the Teen-Twenty Tracker today to nearly $8.9 BILLION YTD. Kalshi "solution" to scrutiny / bad press is to "limit" high school kids to $30,000/yr worth of bets.
Nick Devor
@nickdevor_20h
Inbox: Kalshi adds $2,500 monthly deposit limits for 18- to 20-year-old traders. Also, "When a new trader with a balance over $1000 puts more than 25 percent of that balance in a single trade, Kalshi will show an alert encouraging them to diversify their trading."
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47 state attorneys general on record saying Kalshi sports betting (85% of your volume) is violating state laws. So now you’re promoting a column juxtaposing Kalshi against whole cloth fake polls to look good 🙄
Tarek Mansour
@mansourtarek_Oct 26
Prediction markets are transparent, both in their incentives (people want to make money and avoid losing money) and their method (free markets aggregating millions of opinions). Polls are not.
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Victor Rocha
@VictorRocha1Oct 26
In other words, Kalshi will be fine without sports betting
Riva Sciuto
@Riva1213Oct 26
“This is truly the first prediction-market election. The best way to get informed about what’s happening with our elections is not giving the microphone to a select few. It’s just to let the market speak. It’s to let the people speak. And that’s what the prediction markets do,” says @mansourtarek_ to @politico:
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JUST IN: In 🇧🇷, another BIG LOSS for KaLshi election "forecasting"... Oct 2026: "Election" gambling is a microscopic 0.4 % of Kalshi total betting volume! h/t @TickerTracker_ Main Thing: AGs across USA say Kalshi is an ILLEGAL sports gambling operation
Sam Sutton@samjsuttonOct 26
It's the prediction market election. Just as importantly, @declanharty's back! politico.com/newsletters/mor…

Welcome to the prediction market election

America’s political class is hurtling toward an election that some fear could turn into yet another public opinion polling flop.

politico.com
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Daniel Wallach
@WALLACHLEGALOct 26
New York tells Judge Schofield the CFTC’s Interim Final Rule carving sportsbook bets out of the “swap” definition is procedurally flawed, lacks evidentiary value, relies on distinctions untethered to the CEA, has major-questions problems, and doesn’t resolve Wire Act violations.
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Nixon surrealism, enjoy your weekend 🇺🇸
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👀 🎰 “That poses a problem for Kalshi and Polymarket as they try to justify valuations… Most countries are looking at it as a gambling product… There aren’t really that many rays of sunshine so far from an international perspective.”
Dan Bernstein@dan_bernstein_Oct 22
Kalshi and Polymarket face pressure to tap international markets, yet they're stalling overseas. What saves them in the U.S. is a problem elsewhere. sportico.com/business/sports…

Kalshi and Polymarket’s U.S. Formula Could Hurt Them Abroad

The countries where prediction markets are legal has evolved as more nations formally decide exchange betting should be viewed as a form of gambling.

sportico.com
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Fun surprise seeing NE ⚡️DC @jarrodagen on CNBC this AM talking about the importance of domestic refining! cnbc.com/video/2026/10/23/ja…

Jarrod Agen: Everybody's heard of drill baby drill. Now it's refine baby refine

Jarrod Agen, Assistant to the President and Executive Director of the White House National Energy Dominance Council, discusses refinery expansion, the Defense Production Act, oil supply and energy...

cnbc.com
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📉 👀 Data from @Eric_Ramsey of @TickerTracker_ : “Prediction Markets” Pitch Hedging As Traders Pile Into Longshot Sports Combos 98% of Kalshi’s volume is NOT hedging! nexteventhorizon.substack.co…
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Chron
@chronOct 22
Ted Cruz is preparing legislation that could force prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket to seek approval from Texas before operating: bit.ly/3VY5r8w He plans to introduce it after the midterm elections. #TexasPolitics #Kalshi #Polymarket
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Rob Lockwood retweeted
Jim Byron@jimbyron_Oct 21
Great to be on @foxnewsnight with @tracegallagher last evening live from the Nixon Library. We talked today’s real time rethinking of President Nixon @nixonfoundation. Watch it here: video.foxnews.com/v/64071139…

New generations give former President Richard Nixon’s legacy a second look | Fox News Video

Richard Nixon Foundation president Jim Byron and Next 250 PAC founder CJ Pearson discuss the legacy of the late President Richard Nixon on ‘Fox News @ Night.’

foxnews.com
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“What you’re seeing now with Nixonmaxxing is a real-time rethinking of Richard Nixon.” @jimbyron_ @foxnewsnight
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