Applied Science/ Computer Science Major (Business minor) 1979-1982. Family, freedom, liberty, humanity , wilderness, surfing, mindfulness, #Bitcoin
Melbourne, Victoria
Joined April 2009
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#BITCOIN is a monetary technology which is largely being adopted by young adults & the tech savvy. It’s rapidly outperforming other savings and investment options. Whatever happens, things are shifting quickly, rapidly improving their financial position.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Fiat encourages waste through overconsumption that end up in landfills. Bitcoin reduces this.
Landfills waste their waste by venting potential power. Bitcoin mining reduces this.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Have to think in long term and in log
Time and log Price.
It’s for long-termers, Stoics, not for the twitchy short-termers.
74K$ Sats are cheap, anything under $100K is good value.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Here is another 'never before' for $BTC during a 'bear' market.
My Super Stan oscillator tracks BTC's strength vs the SPX. The read is simple, as long as the oscillator is above zero, BTC is stronger.
Every bear market since inception, BTC sustained weakness vs SPX as the oscillator stayed below zero.
Once it crossed over, the low was already in. It has never crossed over momentarily for 'bear market rallies'.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC at $72.8K may be one of the cleanest asymmetric setups in the market.
Historical P10 reference: $69.3K
Modeled structural path: $78.6K
Cycle MA: $79.4K
Power-law trend: $146K
Bitcoin is only 5% above its historical lower-tail reference while still trading nearly 50% below trend.
That is the opportunity.
The downside has already been stress-tested.
The upside to trend is ~100%.
You do not need to call the exact bottom.
You need to recognize when price is near the lower tail while the structural upside is still large.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
I’ll be the optimist everybody needs.
Bitcoin’s two previous cycles took almost exactly a year to go from the high to the low. That followed expansions of roughly 130x and 20x.
This cycle, we got a compressed 7x expansion and an apathetic top. Yet all of a sudden, the expectation is now that we need almost 20% longer to bottom.
A much smaller expansion, but an even longer decline. Why is that the more convincing explanation?
If Q4 was always expected to be a corrective period, was it realistic to expect Bitcoin to rally 50% from the lows and then protect a weekly swing sitting just 13% below the highs?
We expected a correction. Now we’re getting one, and suddenly the entire recovery is being questioned.
To me, a bottom earlier in the year, followed by a break of the prior weekly lower high and an embedded correction to form a higher low, remains a very reasonable sequence.
An embedded correction is a correction within the expansion phase. Losing a local weekly pivot doesn’t automatically mean we’re heading back through the cycle lows.
That doesn’t mean price can’t go lower from here. It means further downside and a bottom already being in are not contradictory.
You can’t keep pointing to diminishing returns on the way up, then refuse to consider that the timing of the decline might change as well.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC: I think this is one of the most important charts in Bitcoin.
Miners have received ~$102B since genesis.
Bitcoin is worth ~$1.61T.
But the real discovery is not the 15.7× multiple.
It is that the multiple itself rises with scale.
Market Cap ∝ Cumulative Miner Revenue^1.122
Because 1.122 > 1, Bitcoin’s monetary value has historically grown faster than the cumulative dollars paid to miners.
A 10× increase in cumulative miner revenue has corresponded to roughly 13.2× more market value.
That means Bitcoin has historically become more valuable per cumulative dollar required to sustain the network as it gets larger.
That is convex monetization.
And if it persists, the implication is profound:
Bitcoin’s monetary premium does not merely survive scale.
It expands with scale.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
We've made contact with the 45 degree for this cycle. Historically, any wicks below during the accumulation phase gave you the best entries for the cycle.
A new bear market low remains our invalidation using price and time as $BTC has never made a new low during the accumulation phase in all it's history.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
🌞Good morning everyone at the Bitcoin Frontier and welcome back for another #MomentumMonday.
🗒️I have prepared my four favorite charts for this new week in $BTC. Let's dive right on into it:
1) TEM shows a super strong support at its yellow median line, showing momentum strength to keep Bitcoin above or at $74.5k (.618 fib) with a worst case scenario of $72k cluster ($1k tolerance +-) which has been drawn in with the bull market trend coming all the way back from the bear market bottom my friend @xapa03 and I have correctly called back in June 2026.📢
2) The BTC Cipher is gaining upside and has been on the incline for weeks and months. We will soon reach the white line where the "momentum kicking in - mode" might be just around the corner. Patience.🧘♂️
3) The Harmony Index is showing a super rhythmic pattern. Each and every time we cross below the white line, the bear market bottom was formed. Every time we switch from red to green while the Harmony Index is being pinched tightly, we start over into the "momentum phase". This switch implies a rally that has preceded the move up to the momentum switch. If we assume less than 50% of the average gain, we would still end up at around $90k to $95k as soon as red switches to green which I expect to be happening this quarter in 2026.🟢
4) Global Central Banks Liquidity Oscillator has given us the perfect macro bear market bottom entry and it now is working its way up to the red line. As a pre-halving run up to this line, it doesn't have any meaning, just an outbalancing of priorly added liquidity packages. We'll monitor it very closely.👀
Fellas, enjoy this new week and all what has been given to you. Seize your chances, stay true to yourselves, and change somebody's life this week who has it not as good as you. Do good and it will be given to you!🙏
Sincerely, with all gratitude for each and everyone who follows along my journey at the Bitcoin Frontier🧡
Sheriff🤠
↘️
⚠️Nothing in this post is financial advice, neither am I a financial advisor. For educational purposes only. 👨🏫
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Close to 99% of people on this platform are zoomed in on 2026, the past month, past week, past day, & past hour
Focus on 2028 and where things will be at then
Nothing in 2026 matters at all to the higher time frame
If you realize that then you are far ahead of the other 99%
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
$BTC: Adoption Is Rising at a 22% Annualized Pace While the Cycle Contracts
Bitcoin: $75.8K
Over the last 90 days:
400-day cycle MA: −9.3%
1,510-day structural/adoption MA: +5.6%
Annualized structural slope: +22.2%
Divergence: 14.9 percentage points
Why?
The fast clock is replacing higher prices from roughly a year ago with weaker prices today.
The slow clock is replacing much lower prices from roughly four years ago with prices near $76K.
So the cycle is contracting while the long-term structural base keeps climbing.
Today:
Fitted structural spine: $78.5K
Power-law trend: ~$145K
Spot vs. trend: −48%
That is the deeper signal:
Much of the speculative premium has been washed out.
The long-term compounding structure has not.
Bitcoin has reset toward its structural base while that base is still rising.
That is a very different setup from a broken trend.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
Bitcoin's floor is $66,842 today. Growth per 1 BTC:
Next day: +$58, to $66,900
Next week: +$409, to $67,251
Next month: +$1,795, to $68,637
Next year: +$24,302, to $91,144
Next decade: +$772,786, to $839,627
Floor is 0.42 x the Santostasi trend. Model, not a promise.
ALT Bitcoin floor today $66,842. Growth per 1 BTC: day +$58, week +$409, month +$1,795, year +$24,302, decade +$772,786. Floor is 0.42 x Santostasi trend.
Bitcoin Grandad retweeted
even fidelity's macro guy is still picking bitcoin over gold
nitter.gq/TimmerFidelity/status/…
Diminishing returns?
The last “dampened” cycle rose from a low of $15700 to $126000, approx a $110k increase.
The cycle before that went from $3,200 to $67,000, a $64k increase.
The cycle before about a $19k increase.
Just say’n.
Nfa.
mnav.com/charts/bitcoin-powe…
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