Head of Index Research, Tilt @ridethetilt. 20+ years #macro #markets observer, 10+ years #macrostrategy #hedgefunds #quantresearch #digitalassets #riskmgmt
Los Angeles, CA
Joined November 2022
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Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
The dilemma:
If the Fed hikes it will worsen the interest expense problem (since so much borrowing is at the short end).
If the Fed cuts it will worsen the inflation problem.
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
It seems most people don't understand how severe the energy situation is right now in the Middle East.
As of Friday, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline has officially been shut down after recent attacks, putting -4 million barrels of daily oil exports at risk.
Meanwhile, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now at risk of being shut down, threatening up to -9 million barrels of daily oil supply.
All while the Strait of Hormuz is operating at ~20% of its pre-Iran War capacity, removing -15 million barrels of daily oil flows.
Combined, this represents nearly ~30 MILLION barrels per day of oil flows that are either offline or at risk.
Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market.
This is one of the most severe energy supply situations in modern history.
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
Citadel, is one of the most significant hedge funds, and they just dropped tokenomics …
And it’s not what you would have expected
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out.
It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive.
And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it.
citriniresearch.com/p/2028gi…
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
A terrific statement from a true statesman.
I am grateful for everything Chair Powell is doing to resist this outrageous attempt by the President to use lawfare to subvert the Fed’s responsibility to pursue the objectives set for it by law—maximum employment and price stability.
Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevent…
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
I hope Jon does a write up on how this site works: tilt.io/
Pretty happy with how it’s working.
cc: axios.com/pro/fintech-deals/…
LFG!!🚀🚀Tilt raises $7.1M to launch AI-powered direct indexing axios.com/pro/fintech-deals/…
Todd Groth, CFA retweeted
While the median dot shifted up to three cuts in 2025, there is still a pretty wide split. Indeed, nine officials saw two cuts or less for the rest of the year.
Did StubHub scalp their own IPO? 😂😂😂
From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - StubHub resells IPO tickets at an undue premium reut.rs/4gslsd1 reut.rs/4gslsd1
Surprising. Democratic Party looks like it’s doubling down on moving further left of center
Breaking News: Gov. Kathy Hochul endorsed Zohran Mamdani for New York City mayor, providing critical support ahead of November’s election. nyti.ms/4gnbPvX
