Trizzy

Prices of Critical Minerals are ballooning outside of China: Eye-Popping Charts and Worrying Increases for the West 👀👇

I'm hearing rumors that the US government is in panic mode when it comes to securing sufficient gallium supply for its industry 🇺🇸

Jimmy Butler on IG 😂😂😂

🚨 Dysprosium oxide delivered to Europe now trades at roughly 16 times the Chinese price. Microchip, Ford and Regal Rexnord all flag rare earth magnets as a risk in their latest annual reports. Not one of them puts a dollar, a tonne or a share of supply on it. Here is the gap between the price screen and the 10-K 🧵 📊 The price gap, in Benchmark's numbers Benchmark Mineral Intelligence's Q3 2026 review, 25 September: dysprosium oxide CIF Europe rose 150% over the quarter. 📅In September alone it gained 56% to average US$3,500/kg; terbium oxide CIF Europe rose 23% to US$6,745/kg. The ratio that matters: "CIF Europe dysprosium oxide prices are now around 16.3 times DDP China price levels, up from 6.8 times at the end of Q2." Chinese domestic Dy and Tb "continued to retreat from their mid-Q3 highs", which is what widened the gap. Five weeks on, the spread has not closed. SMM, 5 November: dysprosium oxide in Europe US$3,300 to 4,200/kg against US$215 to 220/kg inside China, which is 15 to 19 times; terbium oxide US$7,300 to 8,300/kg; gadolinium oxide US$2,700 to 3,000/kg. SMM's own caveat: the three heavies were "largely in a state of having prices but no available goods", and its European quotes are "for reference only". So the 16× is a thin market's number. It is still the number a non-Chinese buyer is quoted. 🧲 Why it lands on the high-temperature grades 🇺🇸🏛️The US Department of Energy's 2022 supply chain assessment: sintered NdFeB magnets "can have small additions (0.5 to 11 percent) of Dy or Tb that improve the high-temperature resistance to demagnetization", and those heavies are used "primarily in sintered magnets to improve their resistance to demagnetization at temperatures above 120 degrees C". 📊The same report put China at "approximately 92% of global sintered NdFeB magnet manufacturing". Traction motors, generators, aerospace actuators and defence electronics sit in the high-temperature grades. That is where a 16× dysprosium price arrives in the bill of materials. 📄 What three annual reports actually say 🔬🎛️Microchip Technology, 10-K for the year ended 31 March 2026: "China is a predominant producer of many rare earth materials essential to the global electronics industry. In 2025, China imposed and later expanded export restrictions and licensing requirements on certain rare earth elements and related magnets." And on its customers: "export controls on rare earth magnets have previously led certain automotive manufacturers to temporarily suspend operations." 🇺🇸🚗Ford Motor, 10-K for 2025, lists "rare earth minerals (e.g., magnets, neodymium, dysprosium)" among its purchased raw materials, then: "China's restriction on the export of rare earth minerals, which we and our suppliers utilize for a number of components, has impacted (e.g., rescheduling production, changing operating patterns) and caused disruptions in our production operations, increases the risk of future production disruptions, and has increased and may further increase costs (e.g., premium freight and expedited shipping costs to make up for delays in component availability)." 📉🧲Regal Rexnord, 10-K for 2025: "Following the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods, China placed export controls on certain rare earth magnets. These restrictions create risk in our supply chain and may increase our costs or limit our ability to produce certain of our products that use rare earth magnets." Its Automation and Motion Control segment commentary goes further than the risk factor: organic growth was "partially offset by... persistent challenges sourcing rare earth magnets, particularly for products serving the medical and defense markets." Three filings, three admissions that the problem has already touched production. No dollar amount, no tonnage, no share of supply in any of them. Regal's line about having "mitigated these tariffs, so as to avoid a material impact" refers to tariffs in general, not to magnets. Ford describes disruptions that have already happened and gives no figure for them. That is not a breach of anything; risk factors are written to be qualitative. It does mean a reader cannot tell from the filings whether the exposure is US$5 million or US$500 million. 🖊️ Where a number already exists Upstream, prices are in writing. MP Materials' 10 July 2025 release: the Department of Defense "entered into a 10-year agreement establishing a price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials' NdPr products stockpiled or sold", alongside a US$400 million purchase of convertible preferred stock. A government has put a hard number on light rare earth supply. No comparable published floor exists for dysprosium or terbium. And defence contractors are about to need provenance all the way to the mine. DFARS clause 252.225-7052 (May 2024 version): "Effective through December 31, 2026, the Contractor shall not deliver under this contract any covered material melted or produced in any covered country." Then: "Effective January 1, 2027, the Contractor shall not deliver under this contract any covered material mined, refined, separated, melted, or produced in any covered country." Covered countries: North Korea, China, Russia, Iran. For NdFeB the clause spells it out: from 1 January 2027 "this restriction includes the entire supply chain from mining of neodymium, iron, and boron through production of finished magnets." A contractor cannot certify that without knowing where the oxide was separated, which is a fact most magnet buyers do not currently hold. 📅 Two dates before the next filing season 📍10 November 2026: the date written into MOFCOM and Customs Announcement No. 70, which suspended China's October 2025 export control package (five additional rare earths and the reach into foreign-made magnets containing Chinese inputs). Both governments have described the broader arrangement as running to 10 January 2027, per MOFCOM's 28 September statement, but Announcement No. 70 still carries its November date, and Environment+Energy Leader notes the legal deadlines had not been formally moved as of late October. • 1 January 2027: the DFARS upstream origin rule takes effect. 📍1 January 2027: the DFARS upstream origin rule takes effect. The April 2025 licensing regime on the seven medium and heavy rare earths, dysprosium and terbium included, was never part of the pause and stays in force either way. Companies drafting their 2026 annual reports early next year will write their supply risk factors with both dates behind them. 👀 Bottom Line 🇪🇺🇨🇳Fact: the Europe-to-China spread on dysprosium oxide went from under 7× to over 16× in one quarter on Benchmark's assessment and sits at 15 to 19× on SMM's November spot quotes. Fact: three large US manufacturers have told shareholders the controls already disrupted production, and none has quantified it. Fact: a US$110/kg floor exists for NdPr; nothing equivalent exists for the heavies. Opinion: the first annual report that states its dysprosium and terbium tonnage, the share sourced outside China and the cost of the premium will set the disclosure standard the rest get measured against, and the 1 January 2027 DFARS rule will force the provenance data to exist whether or not it is published. For the few Western plants producing separated Dy and Tb oxide today, the European number, not the Chinese one, is the price their customers are quoting against. #RareEarths #Dysprosium #Terbium #CriticalMinerals #SupplyChain #Magnets #ExportControls #DFARS #Ford #Microchip #RegalRexnord #China

$QQQ We’re near a bottom in my view as I had said in real time that there’s “CAPITULATION” now being confirmed by major trading desks Capitulation is not something you see at tops and is something you more likely see at lows 😘

wow i think it should go down another 25% tomorrow

AI doomsaying fears hyperbolically far worse than apparent reality

Rare Earths

$AREC One of my USA Rare Earth Refining play gets half it's market cap in non dilutive funding will see many multiples.

$QQQ $VIX I’m going big at the Banana325SMA on the Q’s at around 650 Valuation on the Q’s forward PE is approaching the DOTCOM crash BOTTOM levels CAPITULATION

China’s critical minerals dominance leaves UK ‘dangerously exposed’, MPs warn ft.com/content/9d1f6829-6385… via @ft @IONIC_RE @IONICTECH_UK

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