Watson2314 retweeted
if you became a breakout trader in the last three years please read.
that skill set is dangerous in many regimes
Replying to @OptionsMir
How it typically looks
1. Price consolidates or approaches a clear high/low.
2. A sharp, often relatively fast move spikes through the level (taking the stops).
3. The spike shows a long wick or is quickly rejected.
4. Price returns inside the prior range or structure and continues in the original higher timeframe direction.
Buy-side liquidity (stops of short positions + breakout buys) sits above highs. Sell-side liquidity (stops of long positions + breakout sells) sits below lows. A sweep of either can look like a “breakout” that fails.
Watson2314 retweeted
A MASSIVE statistical error has kept vitamin D recommendations 15 TIMES TOO LOW for DECADES.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: 600 IU/day
ACTUALLY NEEDED: 8,895 IU/day
A peer-reviewed study calculated that 8,895 IU/day is required for 97.5% of people to reach adequate vitamin D levels… NOT 600 IU/day.
The Institute of Medicine accidentally or intentionally “confused” GROUP AVERAGES with INDIVIDUAL REQUIREMENTS.
Watson2314 retweeted
If you want to become someone whose composure strengthens under pressure, then success needs to be your dominant thought.
So motivation flows from a constant river of self-worth.
Find out how to that here: sosams.substack.com/p/the-pr…
Watson2314 retweeted
Nobody tells beginners this about the VIX.
A VIX of 18.39 means $SPX is priced to move 88.9 points today.
Same number. Same screen. Almost nobody turns it into points.
The VIX isn't a mood. It isn't a guess. It's a daily move you can count.
Here's the full breakdown 👇
Turning one number into a day's range:
→ Divide the VIX by 15.87 to get the daily move in percent.
→ Today: 18.39 / 15.87 = 1.16% a day.
→ Multiply that percent by the SPX close to get points.
7,676.77 x 18.39% / 15.87 = 88.9 points
Where today's lines land:
→ Priced range, close plus or minus the move: 7,588 to 7,766.
→ Halfway lines, half the move each side: 7,632 and 7,721.
→ Modeled floor, the strike with the most puts: 7,630.
→ Modeled ceiling, the strike with the most calls: 7,725.
→ Both sit right on the halfway lines, so price can stall there first.
→ This week the priced move is plus or minus 198.8 points.
What to do tomorrow morning:
1. Before 9:30 AM, divide the VIX by 15.87, like 18.39 into 1.16%.
2. Multiply by the close, like 1.16% of 7,676.77 into 88.9 points.
3. Skip new calls near 7,721 and new puts near 7,632.
The Vault posts this band, the halfway lines and the walls before 9:30 AM.
Every stop there is an SPX level in points, written before any idea.
Turn the VIX into points before you buy a single contract.
Every price line above gets drawn inside The Vault before 9:30 AM for SPX, SPY and /ES, 0DTE through weekly options (0DTE, 1DTE ... 4DTE).
$397 once or $97 a month. The page in the reply under this post grades the last 20 sessions against the lines.
Watson2314 retweeted
Old man explains how to get anything you want in life (in under 2 minutes in 5 steps) ‼️‼️
Watson2314 retweeted
Spring 1940. For four months the S&P 500 went nowhere, with every close stuck inside a box less than 5% tall. On May 9 it closed at 12.12, still inside. The next morning Germany invaded France, and twenty trading days later the index was 23% lower.
In 2015 the market did it again. It chopped sideways for 139 days, the longest flat box since 1928, and that one ended in the August crash.
Today the S&P has spent 61 days between 7,490 and 7,819.
Watson2314 retweeted
I did read Anthropic / Claude SEC filling - and I want to tell you something important.
Jane Street is there as one of the main customers.
Now you know why the market is flat for 2 months straight
Watson2314 retweeted
SPX GEX Levels: Tuesday, October 27
SPX closed Monday at 7,676.77, up 53 points (+0.70%), inside our 7,545–7,705 range. We said Monday's setup would amplify whatever came next. It amplified a bounce.
Net gamma repaired $487M in one session, from -$655M to -$168M. Still negative, but the shape changed in a way that matters.
The overhead is light. Between spot and the flip at 7,731, there's only -$59M: 7,700 (-$44M) and 7,725 (-$15M). 7,750 is flat. Above that, positive gamma starts: 7,775 (+$27M), 7,800 (+$79M), 7,825 (+$70M), 7,850 (+$65M).
The floor is still heavy. 7,650 (-$98M) is the first test below spot. Then 7,600 (-$122M, the top put-volume strike), 7,550 (-$61M) and 7,500 (-$114M). That's -$545M from 7,500 to 7,650.
So the structure is lopsided. A rally has little in the way until the flip. A drop through 7,650 hits a stack that accelerates it.
Flow is split. Puts at 7,400–7,650, calls at 7,750–7,900. Volume put/call 1.53, right at the line. ATM IV eased from 16.7% to 15.4%.
FOMC is tomorrow. The day before a Fed decision often compresses as traders wait, and today's range reflects that. The bigger move is more likely to come after 2pm Wednesday, and with net gamma still negative, it will travel.
Predicted range: 7,630–7,745. Hold 7,650 and the flip is in reach. Lose it and 7,600 is next.
$SPX $SPY
Watson2314 retweeted
Neck pain or stiffness? Try these 5 movements to improve your neck control!
xitter.cf/PostureUni/status/2098… Are you suffering from Tech neck problems...?
Try these 10 neck exercises and be careful when using gadgets.
Watson2314 retweeted
WHY DID YOUR
ELECTRONICS CHANGE
THEIR POWER BUTTON
TO THIS SYMBOL?
IS THIS CONCERNING?
Watson2314 retweeted
Read the Note on the chart:
Based on the setup, I am leaning bearish of $GOOG, which is ready to close the gap below at 304. If so, it would drag $SPX lower by 30-40 points alone.
Watson2314 retweeted
$MSFT EARNING PLAY: (1) The large-cap stock has its own story line and wave pattern. $MSFT has been working on a W-shaped bottom and rebound for a while. (2) at 552 high, it completed a perfect-looking 5-wave impulsive move, and ready to retrace. (3) a symmetry shape is forming.
MPW Bamboo Scroll #247 Posted: (1) next week would give newbie traders a taste of "panic and fear." All things line up perfectly, with BIG TECH earnings and FOMC. (2) I revealed how I called 7612 to singile-digit level and what is the REAL BOTTOM. Check herethekobeissiletter.com/pa…






























