Weather Updates

The switch to unsettled weather across the UK/NW Europe early next week can be traced to what’s happening in the Pacific in the next few days. A developing low pushing into the jet stream causes a jet streak, this generates a Rossby wave that transfers eastwards across the planet. The jet stream becomes more amplified across America and by the time the Rossby wave train arrives into the Atlantic, it powers up the jet stream and steers low pressure systems towards the UK. This, helped along by the developing tropical forcing in the east Indian Ocean.

Wow. As the MJO becomes increasingly strong across the Indian Ocean and high pressure smashes into the East Asian mountains, this is going to trigger a huge surge in positive AAM tendency over the next 1-2 weeks. With the MJO likely to continue transitioning east into phases 3-4 as November progresses, a substantial re-configuration of global weather patterns seems likely. For the UK, the emergence of the MJO coupled with the recent fall in AAM is likely to lead to stormy conditions through the middle of this month, potential for another named storm or two? Before that zonal influence gradually weakens into the last week or so of November. 15th-22nd - Stormy conditions most likely 22nd-28th - Potential for further unsettled weather but becoming weaker in nature Into December, with the likely major SSW & unknown impacts from that, this rising AAM and eastward MJO progression becomes increasingly favourable to high latitude blocking, any SSW downwelling will only support this outcome. Early December potentially blocked and could bring the first proper cold spell of this season. The generated Rossby waves from this huge AAM surge, largely driven by a strong +EAMT event could potentially lead to further disruption to the vortex, the idea of a quick recovery through the rest of November and into December is to me, looking increasingly iffy.

The MJO looks to be on the move east through the first half of this month at a relatively strong amplitude. This, combined with a likely +EAMT event gives me doubt over a rapid stratospheric vortex recovery. In any case, further disruption seems plausible during the second half of November. Late November / early December continues to look interesting from a blocked and potentially cold point of view across NW Europe.

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