YP Rajesh

As the long-drawn 2024 Lok Sabha election finally ends tomorrow, here are my broad overall takeaways from the ground after travelling nearly 10,000 kms across several states & regions: 1. PM Modi continues to remain popular, & the most obvious PM choice. However, in states & regions where his popularity had already peaked, it is now beginning to plateau. This is not unnatural given 10 years of exposure & incumbency. At the same time, he has managed to make fresh inroads in some new areas where his popularity is witnessing an upward graph, for instance, in Telangana. 2. The Opposition is scattered, showing regions/pockets of strength, but missing an overall narrative to pose a big challenge to the ruling side. Some regional parties, for eg the Trinamool Congress, are holding their ground, but the opposition remains splintered & often struggling. 3. Are voters aware of INDIA? Yes. Is there a strong overarching pan-India voter sentiment behind INDIA? Not quite. 4. Welfare is the star of this election. The voter is looking intently at welfare delivery & the parties with a strong story in that area are reaping benefits of it. It isn’t just the BJP at the Centre, but also BJP governments in states along with other state govts/regional parties that have a bouquet of welfare schemes to show. And because of the competition in that area, as well as short voter memory, PM Modi — if re-elected — will need to reimagine his welfare story. 5. Inflation is a real election issue, especially among women. Unemployment is also a much-talked about concern. 6. Ram Mandir is a mixed story. It is certainly not the first issue that most voters talk about, with everyday concerns topping the list. But yes, it does have some resonance, and more in states like Telangana than in the epicentre Uttar Pradesh. 7. TINA is not just an imaginary factor. And this is where 2024 seems a bit different from 2019. In the last Lok Sabha, this wasn’t really as talked about, but now, several voters do talk about the absence of a ‘vikalp’ while explaining their support for Modi. The voting motivation, therefore, has seen some tweaks. 8. The woman voter is becoming increasingly aware, conscious & independent. She is far more pragmatic & concerned about the tangible —immediate improvement in her/family’s life — than about more esoteric & irrelevant rallying points like religion. 9. Voters are increasingly & with great clarity distinguishing between Central & state elections, and are freely expressing distinct voting choices for each. This aspect is helping the BJP. 10. If the BJP does return to power, with whatever numbers, the next five years are going to be crucial for both the ruling & opposition side. Given the plateauing popularity as well as points 4, 5 & 7, the Modi-led BJP will need to restrategise & re-invent its pitch, while opposition parties will have to do some serious thinking as to how to capitalise on these opportunities. #LokSabhaElections2024