Quetzalcoatl

THIS IS ENRON 2.0 Nvidia is the bank of the entire AI trade, and the bank just closed. Every part of this boom depends on a never ending flow of capital into AI companies, and Nvidia sat at the center of it by financing the demand for its own chips. When the source of that capital dries up, the whole system stops getting blood. I lived through Enron and this has the SAME VIBE to it. The cracks are already everywhere: - $200B of GPUs are sitting dark in warehouses, bought but never plugged in - CoreWeave's net loss is up 544%, and Wall Street still celebrates an adjusted EBITDA that strips out interest, depreciation and $2.5B of stock compensation on a company that rents GPUs - Firmus, nScale and SB Energy have all flopped or delayed their IPOs since early October, and SoftBank just took a $3.7B loss on gas turbine orders Then comes the Anthropic IPO, which was built for exit liquidity. It brings peak margins, a peak valuation and no lockup, and the fast entry rule means anyone holding a Nasdaq index fund will be forced to buy it within days. The academic research has always shown that IPOs are bad deals on average, and this one has every warning sign at once. The bulls keep saying Nvidia is cheap, but those forward earnings come from the same numbers that are about to get restated. Price is the what and the fundamentals are the why, and the fundamentals are deteriorating faster than the price. When a sector that makes up 40% of the equity market loses its funding, it takes everything else down with it, because an index fund doesn't protect you when the index is loaded with the problem. Protect your capital first and keep dry powder for what comes after. Don't be the exit liquidity.

2 of NVIDIA's loudest bulls just sent the board the most SHAMELESS letter I've ever seen. They want the door left open for Jensen Huang to come back while the Justice Department investigates whether NVIDIA chips were smuggled into China. Have you no shame? Advanced American AI chips may have ended up in China on his watch, and all these guys can think about is their stock price. Gavin Baker and Brad Gerstner run funds that held about $2.1 BILLION of NVIDIA stock between them as of June, so you know exactly what this letter is protecting. Putting your position ahead of national security is disgusting. You've spent this whole cycle pumping tulip bulbs, and the only way that game pays off is if the everyday American investor buys them from you at the top. This is how hundreds of billions of dollars get misallocated, with the loudest voices in tech cheering on every dollar. And the money behind the whole thing is about to dry up: NVIDIA has been financing its own customers so they can keep buying its chips, and I don't expect the new leadership to keep writing those checks after a scandal like this. Once that money stops, I expect the neoclouds to go bankrupt and NVIDIA's revenue to come in 30% to 40% below where it was headed. The growth rate collapses from there, and with year end coming up, I expect a lot of pain across the AI sector. We hit a nerve with our NVIDIA video yesterday, and the reaction only makes me more convinced that this stock's fall is going to SHOCK people. Are you listening?