Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy) profile picture

out reading | @DayanCenter @TelAvivUni | Managing Editor @Bustan_theMEBR | PhD

Tel Aviv
Joined October 2013
Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)Photo by Brandon Friedman (@bfriedy)
Brandon Friedman retweeted
The Houthis appear to have timed this missile attack during school drop-off, as children in Riyadh returned to school for the first time in weeks.
التحالف: الدفاع الجوي اعترض ودمر صاروخين باليستيين أطلقتهما الميليشيا الحوثية الإرهابية باتجاه الرياض.
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
I reviewed 110 financial documents and reports of main Iranian land and sea transportation companies along with regional custom data. Here is what @CENTCOM new Task Force Iron Gate — announced today to squeeze Iran’s land borders and the Caspian — is actually up against. Since April 2026, a U.S. naval blockade has shut Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, ports that handled roughly 163 million tons of cargo and about 80% of Iran’s trade. But Iran has seven back doors: Iraq, Turkey, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Together they carried about $22 billion in trade in 2024–25 — $15.3B out, $6.8B in. Since the blockade, every one of these corridors shows traffic surging. That is the gap Iron Gate has to close. A thread with the numbers, corridor by corridor. (1/10)
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
USS Theodore Roosevelt Arrives In Singapore; Last Stop Before Third Strike Group Reaches The Middle East Where the aircraft carriers are as of November 6, 2026: twz.com/sea/uss-theodore-roo…
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CENTCOM: "On Nov. 7, the commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) directed the establishment of a task force that will support ongoing U.S. government efforts to prevent Iran from using ground routes to transport advanced weapons and other materials."
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
Iraq’s FM says the current circumstances indicate a possible resumption of war in the Middle East
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
A railway linking all six Gulf countries could be one step closer to reality, with a landmark agreement set to be signed on November 8.
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
סיכום ביניים: ליברמן מצהיר הבוקר שהוא שולל רוטציה. אבל הוא לא מצהיר על הסכמתו להעניק לאייזנקוט את ראשות הממשלה. כי הוא כנראה רוצה לייצר את הנסיבות שיביאו לכך *שהוא* יהיה רה"מ ל4 שנים. ליברמן הצהיר הבוקר על הסכמה להתפשרות בחוק הגיוס כדי לצרף את החרדים, ע"מ להימנע מממשלת מיעוט מקרטעת. אבל הוא לא מוכן לנהל את המומ עם החרדים בעצמו, אלא מצפה שאייזנקוטיהיה זה שינהל את המומ עם החרדים. ואז, לאחר שאייזנקוט ינהל מומ עם החרדים ויביא הצעה, ליברמן יוכל לומר שהוא לא מסכים למתווה שהושג עם המפלגות החרדיות בנוגע לפטור/גיוס. התוצאה: ממשלה לא תקום, אבל אייזנקוט יוכתם כמי שהסכים לוותור לחרדים על גיוס בעוד ליברמן יוכל לומר שהוא לא ויתר על עקרונותיו. וכנראה שליברמן סבור שמהכאוס הזה יווצרו הנסיבות שהוא עצמו יתבקש לנסות להרכיב ממשלה, ומאותו רגע, הכל פתוח בפניו. האם התסריט הזה יתממש? סיכוי נמוך. אבל העניין הוא שעד כה האפשרות הנידונה היתה השבעת ממשלת בזק/מיעוט כשאייזנקוט ראש ממשלה. ההודעה של ליברמן הבוקר, פשוט מסכלת קודם כל את זה. כלומר משאירה בחיים את אופציית ראשות הממשלה לליברמן. ואגב, כל העולם כבר כותב שאייזנקוט/בנט/לפיד כבר ויתרו לחרדים, כי לכאורה הודעת ליברמן משקפת את עמדת גוש השינוי. בפועל אייזנקוט עוד לא אמר כלום. הוא טרם נסוג בו מהתנאים שהציב ערב הבחירות בעניין הגיוס. הכדור עכשיו אצל אייזנקוט. על פניו הוא יכול להחליט להשביע בשבוע הבא ממשלה עם 41 מנדטים (גוש השינוי מינוס ליברמן). בהצבעה בכנסת יהיו 60 תומכים (41 גוש השינוי + המפלגות הערביות) 53 מתנגדים (גוש נתניהו), ואז ליברמן יצטרך לבחור: להימנע ולאפשר את הקמת הממשלה הנ"ל, או להצביע נגד ואז אין לממשלה רוב (60-60). תומכי התכנית הזו סבורים שליברמן לא יוכל להרשות לעצמו להפיל ממשלה שמביאה לסיום שלטונו של בנימין נתניהו. מה אייזנקוט יחליט? נדע בקרוב.
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
Most men in Idlib who joined the security forces before 2011 served in the police specifically because they faced less discrimination and harassment compared to the army. Among the soldiers, the vast majority were conscripts. Of the 24,000 regime soldiers I have documented killed between 2011 and 2013, 1,030 were from Idlib. Of these, only 14 were senior officers (3 Shia) while 484 held the rank of "conscript." Like most Sunni areas, thousands of Idlibi soldiers defected during the war. There are of course exceptions. There are some families and villages in Idlib, which I will not name, where dozens of men remained loyal officers until the end and today are hiding outside of the country.
نقيب ورائد ونادراً عقيد كانت من أعلى الرتب التي يمكن لأبناء #ادلب الوصول اليها في المؤسسة العسكرية خلال حقبة #الأسد! @riyadhalasaad #سوريا_كاست #سوريا_الجديدة
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إنشاء مجلس حكام الإمارات المتصالحة عام ١٩٥٠،وعقد أول اجتماع عام ١٩٥٢ في الشارقة بحضور جميع حكام الإمارات وكان الهدف من هذا المجلس تحقيق نوع من التنسيق في السياسات بين الإمارات.
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Saudi National Security Advisor Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban held high-level talks in Beijing with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, focusing on the bilateral relationship and security in the Middle East. During the meeting, Al-Aiban delivered a letter to President Xi Jinping from Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman. The letter addressed the advancement of Saudi-Chinese relations and matters of shared concern. Wang described #SaudiArabia as a priority in China’s diplomacy toward the Middle East. He said that, guided strategically by the two countries’ leaders, the relationship has kept up steady growth and has come to serve as a source of stability in the region. Beijing signaled its willingness to work with Riyadh and other regional actors to ease tensions and help build a new regional security framework. The two sides also discussed developments across the Middle East and the Gulf. Wang argued that the region’s states should rely on dialogue to shape a new security architecture that reflects the long-term interests of their populations. He added that China is prepared to engage and coordinate with all parties, Saudi Arabia among them, and to play a constructive part in helping the region move past its current turmoil quickly and reach durable stability. The talks came shortly after Wang met separately in Beijing with Ali Bagheri Kani, deputy secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, as China readies special envoys to travel to the Middle East and Africa on peace mediation missions. This diplomatic push followed a renewed threat of war from Washington only days earlier. The conflict, sparked by US-Israeli strikes on Iran more than eight months ago, has since spread to neighboring states and beyond, and has unsettled global energy markets. Sending the National Security Advisor with a personal letter from the Crown Prince puts this exchange on a security footing, not a routine diplomatic one. Coming right after Wang’s talks with Iran’s Bagheri Kani, it shows Beijing engaging both sides of the Gulf at once, reviving the China-Saudi-Iran triangle behind the 2023 normalisation as a crisis-management channel. China’s call for a “new regional security architecture” built by regional states also implies that the current US-led model has not delivered stability. For Saudi Arabia, this is strategic hedging rather than realignment. Riyadh keeps its defence ties with Washington while opening a second channel for de-escalation, protecting Vision 2030 from prolonged instability, and positioning itself to help design any post-war regional order. China’s leverage over Tehran also gives the Kingdom an indirect way to influence #Iran. For the wider Gulf, Chinese and #GCC interests line up on keeping #Hormuz open and energy markets stable. The limits are real, though: #China offers diplomatic cover and economic weight but no security guarantees, and a durable settlement still depends on Washington and Tehran.
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
Over the past week, #Iraq crude oil tankers began a new corridor through #Syria towards #Europe -- crossing via the al-Tanf crossing to the #Baniyas port. In 7 days, at least 1,600 tankers have made the journey. That's ~400,000 barrels.
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Told @Bloomberg today: “The midterms just delivered a clear political signal against the war, but the next several weeks carry a high risk of military escalation before the new Congress is sworn in,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political scientist at Kuwait University and research fellow at Harvard. “After January, blame-shifting between the president and Congress on the Iran war is the most predictable outcome.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
So just at the moment where last night’s result **might** make Trump more plaint to a deal, the same set of results may make Iran less open to compromise.
Told @AJEnglish that the sense of victory being displayed by Iranian decision-makers will likely make them more uncompromising on core demands. Those include seven conditions set for the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a requirement for the US to take the first step. The likelihood of Iran making concessions on the nuclear issue could also become even lower than before. aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/…
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
Jordan & Syria are getting closer politically, but their security cooperation has yet to catch up. Jordan’s recent airstrikes exposed this gap, which risks turning future cross-border threats into diplomatic crises. My latest explores what needs to change.en.majalla.com/node/333964/o…
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
This is important to keep an eye on 👇
NEW -- #Syria & #Saudi have signed: - Strategic military pact - 10 development agreements paired to $403 million in concessional loans: - Civil defense - Health facilities - Aleppo power plant - Housing - Water meters - Financial Service Center + MOUs in agriculture, industry.
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
QatarEnergy is on track to become the world’s biggest buyer of US LNG by early next decade, putting it on track to control 23.7 mln tons per year from the US by 2033. None of the LNG will end up in Doha, but will be resold and shipped to countries that buy liquefied gas from abroad to produce electricity and fuel industry, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
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Your daily reminder that the Middle East is not turning into blocks.
Millî İstihbarat Teşkilatı Başkanımız İbrahim Kalın (@ikalin1), dün Abu Dabi’de BAE Devlet Başkanı Yardımcısı Şeyh @MansourBinZayed tarafından kabul edildi. Abu Dabi Hükümdarı Yardımcısı ve Ulusal Güvenlik Danışmanı Şeyh Tahnûn bin Zâyid (@hhtbzayed) ile Yüksek Ulusal Güvenlik Konseyi Genel Sekreteri Ali eş-Şâmisî’nin de hazır bulundukları görüşmede, bölgesel güvenlik ve istikrarın güçlendirilmesine yönelik ortak çabalar ele alındı. BAE ile stratejik ortaklığımızın, bölgesel güvenlik ve barışın tahkimine ciddi katkı sağlayacağına inanıyoruz. 🇹🇷🇦🇪
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Brandon Friedman retweeted
I co-authored an article with @domtierney in the journal Security Studies that is out this week. It's an applied history that uses Iraqi archives to understand why America's enemies underestimate our commitment, then draws out lessons for today. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.…
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