Entrepreneur | Trader & Investor | Not Financial Advice
Oxford, England
Joined December 2017
- Tweets23.2K
- Following865
- Followers40.1K
- Likes103K
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Yapay zeka altyapı hisselerinin Fiyat/Kazanç değerlemesi ve ortalama fiyat hedefleri!!!
Özellikle $DRAM alanında inanılmaz bir ucuzluk var. Piyasalar uzun süre irrasyonel kalabileceği için bu durum hemen değişecek değil ama eninde sonunda rasyonel zemine oturacak ve bu şirketler bunun karşılığını alacaklar.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
I think this is the time for AI companies to appoint representatives on X.
To directly combat misleading AI narratives affecting ecosystem valuations and their financing ability.
The financial incentives to amplify overblown fears are enormous.
Both from well-capitalized executives who benefit from smaller competitors collapsing.
And from firms aiming to profit off deleveraging the AI trade.
It shouldn’t take quarterly earnings to finally push back against false rumors of oversupply or buildout delays.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Data centers will just get built somewhere else.
$GOOGL just committed $15B to Malaysia through 2028 which is more than 7x its original $2B pledge in 2024.
Pretty wild to see that the country already accounts for over half of Southeast Asia’s data center capacity under construction.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Every data center in America is getting converted into a Somalian daycare tomorrow
Cuma Cevik retweeted
We are leaving the historically worst six months and the next six months are the historically best for the S&P 500.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Hedge funds just hit the panic button harder than at any time in the last ten years. Here is why that is good news for you.
Morgan Stanley tracks the total money its hedge fund clients have bet on stocks. When that total drops sharply, it means funds are being forced to cut positions, usually because their losses hit a limit. In the last 2 days, it fell 7.8%, a bigger unwind than the Covid crash, the GameStop squeeze, or the 2016 and 2018 selloffs.
Every time this number fell past 6% (2016, 2018 twice, 2020, 2021, 2025), the S&P 500 bottomed within a week or two and was higher one, three and six months later. Six out of six.
The reason is simple. Once the forced sellers have sold, there is nobody left to push prices down. Those same funds then have to buy back in, and that buying has powered every rebound in the table.
As for me, I am looking for great businesses that got dumped for no reason. That is where the bargains are.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
And somehow, the numbers get even crazier.
1,400 US stocks are trading 60% or more below their 52-week highs.
But here's the one that really blew my mind.
2,600 stocks are down 70% or more from their ALL-TIME HIGHS. 🤯
Think about that for a second.
A brutal bear market happening underneath the surface.
WOW.
You're about to be blown away by this.
2,800 US stocks are currently trading 30% or more below their 52-week highs.
Yes, you read that correctly. 2,800 stocks.
But here's the part that really gets me.
That's roughly HALF of the US stocks in this group already down 30% or more.
And people wonder why their portfolios look nothing like the major indices.
There's a massive bear market happening underneath the surface.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Guidance (Rehberlik) nedir ve Neden önemlidir?
Rehberlik, şirketin bilanço açıklarken önümüzdeki dönem için verdiği satış ve kâr tahminidir. Bilanço geçmişi gösterir, rehberlik ise geleceği.
Borsa geçmişi değil, geleceği fiyatlar. Bu yüzden bazen iyi bilanço gelir ama hisse düşer, çünkü şirket önünü kötü görüyordur.
Nasıl okunur:
Guidance Artırımı (Raise): Şirket işlerin beklenenden daha iyi gideceğini söyler. Fiyatı yukarı sürer.
Guidance Düşürülmesi (Cut/Lower): Şirket işlerin yavaşlayacağını itiraf eder. Piyasa anında ceza keser.
Guidance İptali (Withdraw): En kötüsüdür. "Önümüzü göremiyoruz" demektir, panik satışı getirir.
Pratik Örnek (INTC vs. MPWR):
🔴 Kötü Örnek (Intel - $INTC): Son bilançosunda ileriye dönük beklentilerini (rehberliğini) sert şekilde aşağı çekti ve temettüyü durdurdu. Piyasa, geçmiş bilançodan ziyade bu "gelecek karanlık" mesajını fiyatladı ve hisseye tek günde %29 satış yedi.
🟢 İyi Örnek ($MPWR ): Bilanço beklentileri aşmakla kalmadı, yönetim bir sonraki çeyrek için büyüme hedefini ve Yapay Zeka segmenti rehberliğini (%130'dan %150'ye) yükseltti. Genel piyasa koşulları kötü olsa bile, yatırımcı bu "gelecekte daha çok kazanacağız" vaadine güvendiği için hisse %4 artıda seyrediyor.
Dünyanın en iyi kârını açıklamış olsanız bile, eğer rehberliğiniz zayıfsa o hisse düşer. Kurumsal yatırımcılar modellerini (F/K, PEG vb.) geçmiş çeyreğe göre değil, şirketin verdiği bu "Guidance" rakamlarına göre güncellerler.
Cuma Cevik retweeted
Oh no. Bad news for the memory bulls. SK Hynix only made $62 billion dollars of profit in one quarter. For perspective, that’s about 7 years worth of Tesla profits. Or 15 years worth of PLTRs current yearly profits. Or 6 years of AMDs current yearly profits. All in one quarter. Not one year, one quarter. But it really doesn’t matter, because memory is cyclical. And cyclical money is like Monopoly money. All of these really really smart people on X taught me that cyclical money doesn’t count. The memory bears are going to teach those memory bulls a lesson. The cyclical guys are so smart. They know what’s best. $60 billion dollars of profit in one quarter doesn’t matter when it’s from selling memory stuff that is sooooooo cyclical. Oh, and BTW, SK said their HBM will be sold out until 2030. It may be longer, but they can’t see out past that. But don’t worry, memory is so cyclical that I’m sure it will peak soon. I’m so happy I follow so many smart guys that taught me about the cyclicality of memory. Good thing they were all predicting memory stocks to crash. Even the really smart guys with those charts and squiggly lines. They knew it. I can’t wait to see MU at $600 a share soon like they predict. And DRAM at $25 a share. lol. 🤡
Fuckin cyclical clowns out there. When will they figure out that this time really is different? Ai never existed during the past cycles. So, by definition, it is different. That’s ok. I hope they figure it out when MU passes $5000 a share. lol.