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Joined February 2025
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@Rory_Johnston Tanker rates from the Persian Gulf to China went from $2-3/barrel to $25-30/barrel. "The tanker market is completely torqued." The result? A dozen Balkanized regional oil markets. #shipping #tankers #oilmarkets #energy
Video: youtu.be/PgYAtNM1jMM
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
This is by design. Kevin Warsh was clear before he took the position that he would let the bond market decide the direction of rates.
His role is not to provide clarity, just to react.
Ironically, back in 1929 the Federal Reserve took the same approach. Instead of reacting to the crisis, they allowed the money supply to collapse by 30%.
The excuse was they feared a resurgence of inflation so they kept rates elevated, even in the face of a deflationary economic shock.
Sound familiar?
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
🚨 Scott Bessent Just Warned The Fed Of An Energy Supply Shock: This Is A Really Terrifying Warning For The Markets
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of an energy supply shock and urged the Federal Reserve to keep an “open mind” on interest rates.
That warning comes at an extraordinarily dangerous moment for the global financial system.
U.S. Debt has reached $40 Trillion with Treasury yields being at record highs. Oil is elevated above $100 despite reassurances that oil is flowing through strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels.
And the Federal Reserve faces an increasingly uncomfortable choice.
Fight inflation and risk crushing the economy OR tolerate inflation and risk losing control of the bond market.
America is on course to spend more than $1 TRILLION annually in interest payments… just servicing its debt.
READ THAT NUMBER AGAIN.
Every 25bps hike by the Fed increases interest expense by almost a $100 Billion. That means refinancing pressure is a serious vulnerability.
Japan could become the trigger for a global liquidity shock.
BoJ and Finance Minister have warned that they will not hold back any longer from protecting their own economic interests after Scott Bessent held them from liquidating their $1.4 Trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings. He even went on to expand Fed’s FIMA facility to Japan, dump dollars and euros to prop up the yen.
A liquidation from BoJ could literally collapse the debt market through the yen carry trade unwinding.
Japan’s @yutokanzakireal warned that the “allies”, which is the U.S., is finding a scapegoat like AI, cyberattacks or oil crisis to collapse the current economic order.: SCOTT BESSENT JUST CONFIRMED IT‼️
All financial crises are engineered by the central banks, IMF, BIS and G-SIBs.
They’re planning something far bigger this time because the condition is worse, not better.
NEW EPISODE: @trader_ferg joins The Competent Investor to break down why Brazil's election selloff is an overreaction, why coal is the ultimate resiliency trade, and where Asia's $1.8T surplus is really going. 🎧 #Brazil #EmergingMarkets #Commodities #Investing
Video: youtu.be/wMZx3cTYDvM
"Never admit scarcity." @trader_ferg on the Jimmy Carter lesson: run down your reserves, say everything's fine, hope it resolves before tank bottoms. That's been the US and Europe playbook. #SPR #Energy #Macro #Oil
Video: youtu.be/wMZx3cTYDvM
Is the dollar king? Francis with a sober take
This Jim Rickards reaction video, on 1) 'King Dollar', 2) 'The Debasement Trade is BS!'. 3) 'Treasuries are fine!'. Has gone viral, you all seem to have enjoyed it immensely.
If you are one of the few who missed it, it is here below.
youtu.be/cskgSYKYxFc?si=JYcm…
@Competentmanpod @MilesFranklinmint @sdbullion @neiloliver @alexejjordanov
@JamesGRickards @JrMiningGuy
Why are Judy Shelton and David Zervos at the Treasury? @GoldSwitzerland: "Change is definitely coming. Most of it won't work... We could see a 50 year gold-back bond or even a revaluation of gold." The desperate tricks of central planners. #TREASURYGold #FiscalPolicy #Inflation
Video: youtu.be/4_QZG3CRrQ8
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
On Thursday I wrote that JPMorgan naming a critical minerals chief inside its $1.5 trillion Security and Resiliency Initiative marked the moment private capital decided to move alongside Washington.
It took less than 24 hours for the next shoe to drop.
This morning in Bangkok, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, World Bank President Ajay Banga announced that the bank will quintuple its critical minerals business over the next five years. The new Metals and Minerals implementation plan targets $19 billion in critical minerals financing for fiscal 2026 through 2030, up from $3.6 billion in the prior five years. The bank has identified 20 countries it can partner with on critical minerals projects and launched its first country compacts this week, built around keeping processing, jobs, and value in the producing countries rather than shipping raw ore to China.
Note who pushed for this. The United States is the World Bank’s largest shareholder, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been publicly pressing the bank to do more on mining and processing, project de-risking, and the infrastructure that makes mines viable. Banga delivered.
So in the span of one week, the two largest pools of institutional capital on the planet, one private and one multilateral, built dedicated critical minerals programs. JPMorgan covers Wall Street and the corporate world. The World Bank covers the emerging-market producers in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia, where a large share of the world’s copper, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths actually come out of the ground.
gainspainscapital.com/2026/1…
RT @aj_geo_analysis: Alright Signal Seekers, by popular demand... This one is for YOU!
This is my first podcast I did with Tom Bodrovics f…
This quoted post is unavailable.
Understanding the 'Toyota Hilux Index' is crucial for predicting civil unrest. A surge in shipments can indicate increased militia activity months in advance. Thanks to @aj_geo_analysis for this insight! #SupplyChain #Conflict
Video: youtu.be/5ae456o15nk
AJ Signal (@aj_geo_analysis) emphasizes that tracking logistics can reveal impending conflicts. "Nations can't start moving into war without moving supplies, energy, finance…" Learn how to interpret these signals. #Geopolitics #Logistics
Video: youtube.com/watch?v=5ae456o1…
I had a fascinating conversation with @aj_geo_analysis today about all aspects of the current conflicts in the world, what they mean for energy constraints, economic concerns and what all of these signals are pointing towards. Check it out soon!
Iran, USA and Israel...
I put the three warring states on a political spectrum, then did it again on an economic one, and the picture flips between the two.
On WHO HOLDS POWER they all fall on the same side. The Republican right in Washington, Netanyahu's right in Israel, and the clerical hardliners in Tehran are all on the right, every one of them a religious or nationalist conservative governing from the authoritarian side. Three enemies, one half of the spectrum.
Flip the axis to WHO RUNS THE ECONOMY and the cluster breaks apart.
The US and Israel run market economies, privately owned, centre-right. Iran runs a state economy, the oil, the bonyads, the IRGC conglomerates, all of it owned and controlled by the state, which puts Iran on the LEFT, over next to China and Russia, the two states arming its side of this war.
So the enemies are mirror images on power and opposites on money, which tells you the fight was never about economics.
Strip the economics out and what is left is three conservative establishments cut from the same authoritarian cloth, each one needing the other as the enemy to keep its own people in line and itself in power. They are divided by who rules, not by how they run the economy.
This is a must read, see or listen to the full analysis in link below.
𝗦𝗜𝗚𝗡𝗔𝗟, 𝗡𝗢𝗧 𝗡𝗢𝗜𝗦𝗘!!
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
🚨 SOMETHING IS BREAKING IN THE U.S. BOND MARKET
The US 5-year Treasury yield just hit 5.15%, its highest in 19 years since 2007. Last time the 5 year was this high, the US owed $9 trillion. It owes $40 trillion now.
And this could be FAR more dangerous than the long-term bond meltdown.
US inflation just came in HOT at 3.7%, reigniting fears of more Fed rate hikes.
Long-term Treasuries were ALREADY getting crushed.
Scott Bessent doubled down on bond buybacks, with even the Treasury’s nearly $1 TRILLION General Account floated as potential ammunition.
He famously declared: “I am the house now.”
But the bond market isn’t blinking and now the 5-year yield is exploding too.
THIS IS WHERE THE DOMINO EFFECT GETS UGLY!!
Long-term yields punish mortgages and asset valuations.
But when shorter-term yields surge too, refinancing costs rise across the economy… from businesses to banks to Washington itself.
Banks are already sitting on hundreds of billions in unrealized securities losses. Add commercial real estate exposure, falling bond prices and expensive refinancing, and the pressure can compound FAST.
Higher yields → Bond losses → Bank balance-sheet stress → Tighter credit → Commercial real estate pain → Expensive mortgages → Falling stock valuations.
EVERYTHING IS CONNECTED.
And the biggest borrower of them all?
THE US GOVERNMENT.
With national debt approaching $40 TRILLION, persistently high yields threaten to blow up Bessent’s ambition to grow the economy faster than the debt.
More expensive refinancing means more interest expense, bigger deficits and potentially even MORE borrowing.
A vicious cycle.
The terrifying part? Treasury buybacks don’t erase the debt. They can simply shift refinancing risk toward shorter maturities.
If BOTH ends of the yield curve remain under pressure, the entire financial system faces a much harder test.
Either way, the tell is who is selling paper… and who is stacking metal.
🚨 The City of London Is Preparing for the Biggest Financial Bloodbath in Decades
Former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has delivered a stunning warning:
“The United States-led global order, which I grew up with, is over. I don’t think it’s coming back.”
⚠️ UNDERSTAND WHO IS TALKING.
This isn’t some random politician.
- Former Goldman Sachs banker
- Former TCI hedge fund insider
- Former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer
- Former British Prime Minister
- NOW a senior adviser to GOLDMAN SACHS
- ALSO advising MICROSOFT and ANTHROPIC
A man connected to the highest levels of government, global banking, hedge funds and Big Tech is telling the world that the old order is FINISHED.
The City Of London isn’t just a financial district. It’s a separate jurisdiction, with its own police and military system, effectively a country of its own at the center of London, controlled by an elite global network that no government fully oversees… and it runs global finance.
Foreign nations including Netherlands, France and Germany pulled out over 500 Tonnes of Gold OUT of the U.S. and storing it in London.
UK’s FCA is lining up tokenized gold. The Bank Of England and LME are tokenizing Physical bars that they have vaulted. Digital claims move at the speed of code. Collateral without trucks. London wants to keep its grip on ~70% of global gold trading while China builds a rival map: Shanghai pricing, Hong Kong vaults, a “Gold Road” network aimed at Singapore, Dubai, Riyadh, Moscow.
Interestingly, London Metals Exchange (LME) Treasury Chief Just Quit London For The Crypto Firm “Ripple” As Tokenization of Gold on blockchain advances. The same firm Ripple was chosen in UK Government’s Tokenization Taskforce with JP Morgan and BlackRock.
You can now Swap crypto to London’s metal on the XRP Ledger’s @Trensik_com without leaving the book.
When the next shock hits… sanctions, dollar weaponization, or something worse, the gold that used to sit under American concrete will already be sitting under the Square Mile.
The famous City Of London banker @LordBelgrave already warned about how central banks, IMF and BIS have been planning the new monetary order.
Own Gold. The dollar debasement is coming.
"The U.S. is trapped by overfinancialization and fiscal irresponsibility," says @michaelpento. The next recession could see deficits ballooning significantly. #FiscalPolicy #Recession
Video: youtu.be/gONWC_px2wY
Jaime Carrasco @ijcarrasco warns that rising interest rates signal a deepening credit crisis. 'Selling gold now is like selling your seat on the lifeboat of the Titanic.' Prepare for the storm ahead. #Gold #MonetaryPolicy
Video: youtu.be/z6EcgiNGajo
Porter Stansberry (@porterstansb) warns that by 2029, the U.S. could face a major fiscal crisis, similar to the downfall of the Knights Templar. Watch for signs of a sovereign turning on its creditors. #USFiscalCrisis #NationalDebt
Video: youtu.be/Mic78bF23NQ
As Stansberry points out, the largest creditors to the U.S. government may not be bondholders, but Social Security recipients. This looming crisis could reshape American politics. #USFiscalCrisis @porterstansb
Video: youtu.be/Mic78bF23NQ
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
🚨 GOLDMAN SACHS DROPS DOOMSDAY STATEMENT: U.S. BONDS HAVE NO BUYERS
Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.”
Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell.
No buyers. None. Zero.
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.”
Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home.
This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West.
Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized.
If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses.
The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.
Very great news to have a sane voice in the building. I don’t know how much can be done at this point but at least this is a step in the right direction. Congratulations @judyshel
BREAKING NEWS:
JUDY SHELTON HAS JOINED THE U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT AS COUNSELOR TO THE SECRETARY.
Judy has spent decades thinking deeply about monetary policy, sound money, gold, and the architecture of the global financial system.
To now see her bringing those ideas and that experience into discussions at the highest levels of the U.S. Treasury is incredibly exciting.
My conversation with Judy on The Gold Telegraph will always be one of the highlights of my career.
Beyond her extraordinary intellect, she is thoughtful, gracious, and deeply committed to the ideas she believes in.
Full documentary: youtu.be/USGjSU5yXh8?si=999H…
Congratulations, my friend.
Very well deserved. @judyshel
Tom Bodrovics retweeted
Power selects for a specific personality type, and it is not yours.
F.A. Hayek spelled this out in 1944. In a centrally planned system, the people who rise are not the most competent or the most honest. They are the most willing to exercise force against strangers, the most comfortable with contradiction, and the most skilled at coalition-building through favors rather than merit. Government filters for the bad ones from the start.
The mechanism is straightforward. Political power means controlling resources you did not earn. Capturing that control requires outcompeting rivals who have no ethical constraints. A principled candidate refuses to promise contradictory things to different voter blocs. An unprincipled one does it without blinking. The unprincipled one wins. Repeat this selection pressure across hundreds of electoral cycles and you get the U.S. Congress in 2026: a body where the average member has held office for over a decade, raised millions from interested parties, and delivered almost nothing measurable to the people who voted for them.
Bureaucracy compounds the problem. Once entrenched, state agencies attract people who want authority without accountability. You cannot fire most of them. The FDA, the TSA, the Federal Reserve all function this way, staffed by individuals whose career advancement depends on expanding the agency's reach, never on serving you efficiently.
