Brit into politics, tech, economics, strategic gambits, travel, food | Like myriad viewpoints | 🇬🇧🇺🇸
London | Dorset
Joined March 2009
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Gary B retweeted
This lines up with our own analysis which incorporates the full journey and recent visa states in a calibrated stock-flow model. We reach a much higher central estimate without the reforms, with 1.9m expected to settle vs 1.6m in the Home Office model. The full reforms applied to all see it drop to about 830k, while a full care worker + dependants exemption brings it back up to 1.2m
I was bored and rebuilt the Home Office earned settlement model with Claude.
I think the Home Office is underestimating Boriswave settlement by around ≈ 400,000 and that around 2 million migrants will settle without any changes to indefinite leave to remain, as opposed to 1.6 million in the Home Office central scenario.
🧵
Gary B retweeted
Do me a favour: take some time this weekend and read this. I promise it will be one of the best pieces of writing you'll ever read.
Gary B retweeted
Tomorrow is ILR Day, when the fate of the Boriswave will be decided... itv.com/news/2026-11-01/home…
Gary B retweeted
This is a total lie. Everyone working in government knows that everything is in a state of paralysis because they aren't allowed to change anything that might pull Britain out of alignment with the EU - because Labour intends to drag us back in.
Labour will stick to its "red lines" on the EU, namely "no return to membership of the European Union or the customs union, the single market or free movement", cabinet minister Emma Reynolds says.
Read more here: trib.al/6dRrhn9
I hope they play the clip of Emma Reynolds before this fella pipes up with his pro Labour credentials and spends the whole speech explaining what an employer is
Spending the day prepping my speech for tomorrows largest conference for future Hospitality Leaders delivered by The Institute of Hospitality @IoH_Online in London.
Yes, its been a disappointing week for Hospitality, but I strongly believe we are the best sector to help get young people into work.
When my sons old enough, I'll be encouraging him to get a part time job to help him through college, as it's the best way to learn life skills, that can't be taught sat behind a desk.
Gary B retweeted
Now rebranded Conference for Future Hospitality ‘Not Workers’…
Spending the day prepping my speech for tomorrows largest conference for future Hospitality Leaders delivered by The Institute of Hospitality @IoH_Online in London.
Yes, its been a disappointing week for Hospitality, but I strongly believe we are the best sector to help get young people into work.
When my sons old enough, I'll be encouraging him to get a part time job to help him through college, as it's the best way to learn life skills, that can't be taught sat behind a desk.
Emma Reynolds says employers aren’t “working people”. Marvellous.
So who funds all this? The supposedly non-working employers, benefit recipients, or the employees paying tax on wages supplied by those apparently idle employers?
We are giving defence the largest increase in spending since the Cold War & @JohnHealey_MP's plan for defence in his Budget has also been strongly backed by @SecGenNATO
Gary B retweeted
Excellent 🧵
Gary B retweeted
Since I re-mortgaged my house 10 years ago to set up my business it's true: I've basically done fuck all, sent a few nasty tweets, drank a minimum of 80 units a week, hired workers on the basis of their drinking ability. I look forward to a rebate of my employees NI.
'I don't think employers are working people.'
@CamillaTominey grills Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP, over whether Labour has breached its manifesto pledge in the Budget.
📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
Gary B retweeted
I’m a single issue voter now. Promise to abolish MTD and whatever’s next in the pipeline and you get my vote. Can’t believe it was allowed to be implemented at all really.
Gary B retweeted
This sums up the attitude of the Labour govt. They hate entrepreneurs and worship unions. They have no understanding at all of market economics, and are busy making the country poorer and more miserable.
'I don't think employers are working people.'
@CamillaTominey grills Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP, over whether Labour has breached its manifesto pledge in the Budget.
📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
Gary B retweeted
This is the problem. Emma Reynolds’ entire career has been spent in the political bubble.
2001–04: EU policy adviser
2004–06: European political adviser
2006–08: Government special adviser
2010–19: Labour MP
2020–24: Public affairs & lobbying, TheCityUK
2024–present: Labour MP & minister
No apparent experience of running a business, employing staff or meeting payroll. Yet she feels qualified to decide that employers aren’t working people.
Perhaps that’s what happens when your entire career revolves around politics rather than the people who actually keep the economy running.
This clip should follow Labour ministers everywhere.
Every media round. Every business conference. Every interview on growth, jobs or tax.
Just ask one question: “What is an employer?”
Then play the clip.
Every single time.
'I don't think employers are working people.'
@CamillaTominey grills Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP, over whether Labour has breached its manifesto pledge in the Budget.
📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
They say soon you won’t be able to tell the difference between real content and AI-generated content.
One useful clue remains: even AI would struggle to sound quite as hopelessly clueless as the Chief Secretary.
'I don't think employers are working people.'
@CamillaTominey grills Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds MP, over whether Labour has breached its manifesto pledge in the Budget.
📺 Freeview 236, Sky 512, Virgin 604
TL;DR: it makes everything worse. You get poorer, the state gets bigger, and those contributing least are rewarded with more for doing even less.
Details of what’s coming in Burnham’s 10-year plan in our read this weekend
:: Current draft is dozens of pages and due to be published in mid-December
:: Promises grouped into three: “Growing up”, “getting on” and “growing old”
:: Childhood, life opportunities, AI, pensions, care services all addressed
:: Clearest answer yet on what “public control” of utilities means is in there
:: Each policy area will have layered promises for now, soon, long term
:: Eg energy. 2026 VAT off, 2027 gas standing charges go, 2028 electricity…
:: A big chunk is on “out of control” arms-length bodies and regulators
:: Will be relentlessly domestic in focus - attempts to keep out foreign policy stuff
:: A tiny number of trusted civil servants are working on the plan, secrecy tight
:: Doc will tell Treasury what’s not a priority ie can be cut in spending review
Of course 6 weeks of drafting to come so things may change, that’s current status
Full unpacking here, with lots of tidbits on the current Whitehall spending rows:
thetimes.com/article/d341fdf…
