Algorithmic trader, CAN SLIM and swing trading. Boxing
World
Joined May 2011
- Tweets942
- Following180
- Followers332
- Likes442
Henstrade retweeted
SA November 2: It looks like we are gearing up for a brief period of relief in $QQQ and $SPY. On the 12-hour chart, a span of three to eight bars translates to roughly one and a half to four days of potential upward correction. However, traders should stay alert as we move through this window; the upcoming Midterms could very well act as the catalyst that sparks the next leg down. Once this short-term upward correction runs its course, the probability of breaking toward new lows remains exceptionally high.
From a technical and cyclical standpoint, price action currently places us in the second half of the fourth daily cycle, which also brings us right near the conclusion of the weekly cycle. As is typical in market mechanics, the termination point of any cycle tends to be its most volatile phase, with higher-degree cycles breeding even sharper swings.
NDK Navigate these waters with care, happy trading. $SNDK $SPCX $TSLA #Midterms #Midterms2026
Henstrade retweeted
🌡️ Prediction markets now project tomorrow's temperature better than the official weather forecast.
Average error on next-day high temperature:
Kalshi prediction market: 2.44°F (1.36°C)
US National Weather Service blend: 2.70°F (1.50°C)
That's about 10% more accurate.
🤝 Paid partnership
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 21: The technical analysis from recent days for $QQQ and $SPY remains fully intact. Today brought confirmation as the 2-hour Mid Cycle Low (MCL) formed, signaling that the market is now due for its first 4-hour bottom. On a structural level, the 4-hour cycle has displayed a right translation—traditionally a encouraging bullish setup—yet the current price action demands caution. The heavy overlap in candles paints a conflicting picture, introducing a distinctly bearish undertone to the move.
Looking at the broader timeline, we remain firmly within the expected 3- to 8-day recovery window. As this rally unfolds, it appears increasingly likely that it will mark the peak of the current fourth daily cycle. Once this temporary relief phase exhausts itself, the overall structure points toward a break below the recent swing low to the downside. As always, market dynamics will confirm the path ahead in due course. Happy trading. $SPCX $SNDK $SMCI
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 22: Yesterday’s setup in $QQQ and $SPY played out right on cue, and today’s action confirms it. The current 4-hour bar strongly resembles a local bottom, signaling that a short-term bounce is underway.
Looking ahead at the bigger picture, the daily cycle is at a critical juncture. The most likely scenario is that the daily cycle top is already in place. Alternatively, this bounce could carry price slightly higher to print the official top before rolling over. While a third path exists—a much higher, extended rally—the probability for that remains very low.
On the daily chart, the roadmaps are clear:
* The Red Trajectory: Represents the most immediate, aggressive bearish outcome.
* The Blue Trajectory: Outlines a slightly slower bearish path that plays out over a longer timeframe.
As always, patience is key. We take it one bar at a time. Happy trading! #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle $SPCX
Henstrade retweeted
October 20: If my analysis is correct, the third daily bottom of $QQQ and $SPY and the first two-hour higher low are officially in.
Looking at the price action, the overlapping bars strongly suggest we are in a corrective phase. Furthermore, the left-translated nature of the first two-hour cycle adds another non-bullish signal to the picture. I am still anticipating a correction lasting anywhere from three to eight bars, which translates to roughly three to eight trading days.
Because the beginning of any cycle is typically its most powerful phase—and higher-degree cycles usually drive the largest moves—it is worth noting that the first bar of this daily cycle lacks substantial strength, adding yet another sign of underlying weakness.
Even so, as Linda Raschke wisely puts it, we take it "one bar at a time." Happy trading! #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle $SPCX
Henstrade retweeted
In 2010, Polish workers cleaned the houses of British professionals. Today, Poland's GDP per capita sits above $43,000 in purchasing power parity terms, level with Spain and closing fast on France. That reversal took roughly one generation. This was deliberate policy, not luck.
Poland ran a flat tax on business income, kept labor markets comparatively flexible, and spent the 1990s dismantling the Soviet pricing apparatus faster than almost any neighbor. Capital read those signals immediately. Volkswagen, Samsung, and hundreds of smaller manufacturers moved production east. Warsaw became a financial hub, not a branch office.
The EU structural funds helped, obviously, pouring +-160 billion euros into Polish infrastructure between 2004 and 2020. Funds alone don't explain the difference. Ukraine received aid too. Poland built what mattered around the money: enforceable contracts, a functioning court system, and a bureaucracy that didn't simply steal the paperwork.
Respect property, enforce contracts, keep inflation credible, and capital flows toward you. Poland did roughly that for thirty years while Germany and France were busy building regulations that made hiring someone feel like adopting them legally.
The housekeepers became engineers, then managers, then founders. Warsaw startup valuations crossed 50 billion euros in aggregate by 2024. Polish engineers now earn salaries that make relocating to London feel irrational rather than mandatory.
Wealth is produced where producers are left alone to produce it. Poland left them alone just enough.
Another 10 years of this and people from the UK will be cleaning the houses of professionals in Poland.
Henstrade retweeted
My post about France went viral. Thousands of likes. Many Americans told me: "Democrats aren't socialists. America will never be France." I want to answer that seriously, step by step.
Start with a simple observation. Look at what has gotten cheaper in America over the last 25 years: TVs, phones, software, clothes, toys. Now look at what has exploded: college tuition, healthcare, childcare, housing.
What separates the two lists? The first lives in competitive markets. The second is exactly where government is most involved: subsidies, mandates, licensing, zoning, regulation.
College. Washington lends students almost unlimited money. Universities know the money will always come, so they raise tuition and hire more administrators. The student pays the bill for twenty years. More government money, higher prices.
Housing. Why can't a nurse buy a home in the city where she works? Not because of capitalism. Because of zoning laws, permits, environmental reviews, years of procedure to build a single building. The most expensive places to live in America are the places where it's hardest to build. When building is nearly illegal, prices explode.
Healthcare. The patient almost never sees the price. A third party pays, regulations limit who can compete, and costs climb year after year with no one able to say no.
So here is the trap. The problems you suffer from are not the failure of free markets. They are the places where the market has already been replaced by the state. And the solution you're being offered is more of the same.
That's the Trojan horse. It always works the same way. A real problem. A generous-sounding promise. A program that makes things worse. Then the failure of that program becomes the argument for the next one. People who lived under communism in Poland learned to recognize the lie and the mask the lie wears. The lie never presents itself as a lie. It presents itself as compassion.
In France we are at the end of that road. Debt we can never repay. Young people who can't afford a home. Our best people leaving. And every few years our cities burn. Nobody voted for this. They voted for one more generous promise, fifty years in a row.
If you're a Republican, share this with the Democrat in your life. Not to win an argument. To start a conversation.
If you're a Democrat, I'm not asking you to switch teams. I'm asking you to look at the pattern. Wherever the state took over, life became unaffordable. Don't fix the failures of government with more government.
Stay American. Ask for less state, not more.
I’m French. I want to talk to Americans who are about to vote Democrat. Not to insult you. To warn you.
I come from your future.
In France we did everything your progressive politicians promise. Free healthcare, free college, generous welfare, strong unions, heavy regulation, high taxes on the rich, a state that takes care of everything. Public spending close to 57% of GDP, one of the highest on the planet. On paper, it’s the dream.
Here’s what it looks like from the inside. France hasn’t passed a balanced budget since 1974. Our debt is above 3,300 billion euros. Interest on that debt is becoming one of the biggest items in the national budget. Our hospitals are collapsing despite record funding. Our schools rank lower every year. Young people with degrees can’t afford an apartment in the city they were born in. Our best engineers leave for London, Zurich and San Francisco. And the rich you wanted to tax? They left too, and took the jobs with them.
The promise was protection. The result is stagnation.
The worst part is that nobody in France voted for decline. Every single step sounded generous, compassionate, reasonable. One more program. One more regulation. One more tax to fund it. Each step alone makes sense. Fifty years of them, and you wake up in a country that can no longer build a nuclear plant on time or keep its streets safe.
I love America because it’s the one place on earth where people still believe they can build something from nothing. I came to Silicon Valley as a self-taught kid and it changed my life. That spirit is the most precious thing your country has.
Before you vote, ask yourself one question: is the program you’re voting for making America more like America, or more like France?
Trust me. You don’t want to be France.
RT @charliebilello: The worst bond trader in history? The Federal Reserve.
They bought trillions in Treasury/MBS bonds in 2020 when yields…
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 13: We appear to be approaching the bottom in the $QQQ and $SPY index as futures hit their divergence target, pointing to a potential time-based turning point. Although official confirmation is still pending, the main point of caution remains the missed three-hour cycle during the initial leg of this daily cycle. That missing component might resolve itself immediately following this dip. Overall, the probability leans toward a higher close today, though there are no guarantees. Navigating this setup requires taking it one bar at a time. Happy trading! #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle $SPCX
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 8: $QQQ and $SPY market points to continued choppy conditions as prices follow their anticipated track. The 4 hour bottom has already broken down, confirming that the top of the current 2 hour cycle is in. As this unfolds, the mid-cycle low of the two-hour timeframe is being established right now.
We can anticipate a brief 2 to 8 hour rebound before renewed selling pressure resumes across the markets. Because of this underlying weakness, current breakouts are unlikely to achieve strong follow-through, making caution essential for short-term positioning. Happy trading #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 7: We are approaching the $QQQ and $SPY 4 hour bottom today. Following that, the market will experience 2 to 3 days of chop before one final 4 hour cycle plays out to complete the active daily cycle.
Overall market structure remains highly bullish because all cycles are currently right-translated. However, the upcoming final 2 hour and 4 hour cycles are expected to be left-translated and bearish.
A clear 9 day divergence is visible in the momentum indicator. This technical setup points toward a price target near the EMA21, which sits roughly 2% lower from current levels. Happy trading #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle
Henstrade retweeted
SA October 6: Expect some chop ahead as the $NQ #futures market prepares for a 4-hour bottom. Overall, the broader $QQQ and $SPY cycles remain heavily bullish, with all of them showing right-translated structures. If this analytical puzzle holds up correctly, we have just one final 4-hour cycle remaining to wrap up the current daily cycle.
On the 2-hour timeframe, a notable large bar is currently forming. Keep a close eye on this structure, because if it breaks to the downside, it will serve as a clear tell for a short-term correction.
Happy trading! $SPCX $TSLA $NVDA $MU $SNDK
Henstrade retweeted
I only hold $TQQQ for a longer period. All other stocks I trade for a shorter swing.
I've made an automated strategy around only trading $TQQQ's. But I trade around that, if it is long I try to hold the full position and trim if extended or late in a cycle. If the strategy is flat I do not trade $TQQQ at all. Since inception of $TQQQ, all of the gains in both $QQQ and $SPY are made when the strategy is long. In times when the strategy is flat there are no gains (read losses) in both $QQQ and $SPY.
The strategy started the position on April 2nd and is still long. Because of the cycle analyses, end of May, I trimmed half. On July 27 I bought the full postion back and got stopped out. I re-entered 2 days later on July 29 on the - back then - anticipated weekly bottom. I sold some after the ending triangle on August 18. Just because (as you can read in the blog / tweet that day) I expected lower lows. Bought all back Sept 16th. I'm still long $TQQQ.
Heads-Up: Potential Risks in the Index;
* First, the close in the futures friday was not above previous high, that could be a failed breakout.
* Second, this is also the 3rd daily cycle in the weekly, after that 2 more daily cycles. The question is: are these left- or right translated cycles?
* Third, the weekly shows a double top and this coming weekly bottom could be the Mid Cycle Low of the month. A month is a bigger cycle which means also a bigger move (down in this case, the weekly bottom of end of July is the target).
This daily cycle has got some 3 x 2hr cycles left. The 2hr cycle will warn us with either - or both - a left translated cycle or a break of the 2hr bottom. It is just a giant puzzle. As @LindaRaschke always says "One bar at a time". Happy trading
Henstrade retweeted
The 12-hour cycle bottom in $QQQ and $SPY arrived a bit early, clocking in on only the eighth day after missing a full 3-hour cycle. Even so, yesterday marked an important shift by printing the first higher low in the 4-hour cycle. Today, the index followed through by sweeping yesterday's tail and carving out a brand-new high for the current daily cycle.
This price action is inherently bullish on its own, and that strength is further reinforced by the right-translated 2-hour and 4-hour cycles.
Happy trading! #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle
Henstrade retweeted
Yes, self-inflicted:
Europe closed 30 refineries 2009-24
Now diesel is record-high compared to oil prices
reuters.com/business/energy/… workspace.refinitiv.com ice.com/products/34361119/lo… ice.com/products/219/Brent-C… data-api.ecb.europa.eu/servi… ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databr… ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databr…
Henstrade retweeted
SA September 24: It looks like the 6-hour $QQQ and $SPY bottom is in. If this develops into a bearish cycle, we could see a top forming somewhere between 3 and 8 bars. With 3 bars representing 18 hours in the 6-hour cycle, we can expect higher prices throughout today and into the beginning of tomorrow.
What happens over these 3–8 bars will be important. If the move develops cleanly with little to no overlap, that would indicate good traction. If we see a lot of overlap, that would be a more bearish sign.
For today, I’m seeing some upward trajectory in the indices, and that strength can also showing up across individual stocks. Happy trading #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas $MU $SNDK $TSLA #Cycle
Henstrade retweeted
If you think you are smarter than the previous generation...
50 years ago the owners manual of a car showed you how to adjust the valves. Today it warns you not to drink the contents of the battery.
Henstrade retweeted
SA September 9: Recent technical developments suggest that current $QQQ and $SPY market breakouts are unlikely to hold. Sustained weakness across multiple timeframes points to increasing downward pressure, signaling a shift toward a more defensive market posture.
* Daily Cycle Exhaustion: The ongoing daily cycle has displayed persistent weakness and heavy price overlap from the start. Crucially, the cycle top was established as early as the 4th bar—a classic indicator of underlying buyer exhaustion and a significant bearish signal.
* Cycle Tops: Evidence suggests that the top of the current 12-hour cycle is now in place.
* Intraday Breakdowns: Both the 4hr and 2hr bottoms have been broken, with the 2hr timeframe failing on the 9th bar. This confirms active short-term bearish momentum.
With multiple technical indicators pointing south, market participants should expect continued pressure on major indices. This index drag is expected to weigh heavily on individual equities in the near term. Manage risk accordingly. Stay disciplined en happy trading #NASDAQ #NASDAQ100 $QQQ $SPY @RichardMoglen @BobLoukas
