Shirai

Incidence of new-onset pulmonary fibrosis 4.5 years post SARS-CoV-2 infection in an academic urban medical center 🚨New 4.5-year study: COVID nearly doubles the risk of new pulmonary fibrosis, even in people who never went to hospital. AGAIN, the lung damage doesn’t end when the virus does. ➡️Large retrospective USA matched cohort study(March 2020–August 2024) examined new-onset pulmonary fibrosis (PF) up to 4.5 years after SARSCoV2 infection, ➡️COVID-positive patients (no prior PF) were propensity-score matched 1:2 to COVID-negative controls and analysed using Fine-Gray models for competing risks, ➡️Both groups showed roughly doubled risk of new-onset PF versus controls: - Hospitalized patients sHR 2.05 (95% CI 1.69–2.49), - Non-hospitalized patients sHR 2.33 (95% CI 1.88–2.88), ➡️Cumulative incidence remained elevated out to 54 months, ➡️Among those who developed PF: - Prior COVID hospitalization strongly raised odds of pneumonia (OR 4.84), respiratory failure (OR 3.76), asthma/COPD exacerbations, and pulmonary hypertension, - Non-hospitalized COVID patients also showed elevated pneumonia, asthma exacerbation, and pulmonary embolism risk, ➡️Sensitivity analyses (cause-specific Cox, inverse-probability weighting, pre-pandemic controls) supported the main findings, ➡️No clear sociodemographic disparities were observed, ➡️The discussion notes that vaccination could theoretically reduce infection rates or severity and thereby lower fibrotic risk, but this remains an untested hypothesis within the paper itself, ➡️Well noted and specified limitations. ‼️So, even mild, non-hospitalized SARSCoV2 infection roughly doubles the long-term risk of clinically coded new-onset pulmonary fibrosis and its cascading respiratory complications for up to 4.5 years. ‼️This is one of the longest large-scale EHR studies linking SARSCoV2 to new-onset PF in both hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients. It elevates post-COVID fibrotic lung disease from a theoretical concern to a measurable, multi-year population risk that can drive repeated pneumonia, respiratory failure, exacerbations, and vascular complications. The findings argue for sustained respiratory surveillance, earlier risk stratification, and proactive management, particularly in diverse urban populations with high baseline respiratory burden, rather than treating infection as a purely acute event. #ProactiveScreening #AvoidSars2 #AvoidReinfections link.springer.com/article/10…