Rafael Myro retweeted
La victoria de Lula da Silva en Brasil
es impresionante, si tenemos en cuenta el conglomerado de poder al que se enfrentaba. Uno de los factores de la victoria de Lula es el vecino Milei, activo tóxico de la extrema derecha internacional.
Abascal ya lo sabe, otros parece que no.
Rafael Myro retweeted
Retirees own 60% of the wealth in Feance. Given high life expectancy, when they pass it on, wealth is not inherited by the young, but by the about to be old (those in their 50s). Read the entire thing, an excellent analysis of the pickle our societies find themselves in.
The ugly truth about France and some of the other European countries currently in turmoil - and which none of the politicians want to admit because it'd be political suicide - is that you can't solve the problem by going after immigrants (as the right asserts) or the rich (as the left asserts), but you could solve it by going after the old.
One extraordinary statistic for you: people over 60 in France, a quarter of the population, own 60% of France's wealth, non-financial and financial (ofce.fr/pdf/revue/2025/3-192…).
And here is another crazy statistic:
that same quarter of the population, those above 60, receive nearly two-thirds of all social spending by the French government (previssima.fr/actualite/prot…) - which is famously among the highest in the world (France's government spending is an insane 57.3% of GDP).
Last statistic: they make up about 40% of voters because they're a third of registered voters (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/266…), and they turn out far more than anyone else (franceinfo.fr/elections/sond…).
Put our 3 statistics together and there's almost a bit of an apartheid situation here: the old own most of the country's wealth, collect most of the social spending and have the political power to keep it that way.
Which makes them a de-facto rentier class, living off assets and transfers paid for by younger generations.
And, of course, at the risk of stating a truism, the future is built by the young. Yet France keeps effectively taking money away from them to give it to those whose working lives are already behind them - and need the money far less since they already own the country's wealth.
What about inheritance, I hear you ask? That's the funniest/saddest aspect: given that life expectancy has kept rising, the French now inherit a home at 54 on average. The most common case is someone in their 80s leaving it to heirs in their 50s, in effect the very old transferring wealth to the about-to-be old (insee.fr/fr/statistiques/fic…).
You can add this to our earlier apartheid statement: on top of all the rest, even when the old finally let go of their wealth, it stays within their own "camp".
That's my personal situation, incidentally: I'm 42, my father is 71 and he is starting to look at ways to pass things on to me and my siblings, when our professional lives are already well settled, so it'll arrive when it changes things the least, which is pretty much the French system in a nutshell.
Now, I get that there'd be some unfairness in going after them: they paid into the system their entire working lives, playing by the rules of a social contract that told them if they paid up they'd collect at the end. Changing the rules now means breaking that promise, which is admittedly unfair.
But there's no magic wealth tree in any society: you can only take it where it is. That's the way most major societal transformations end up happening. They're often triggered by a catastrophic event (the so-called "four horsemen": mass-mobilisation war, revolution, state collapse, plague) BUT what really drives change is a transfer: wealth gets pried from the privileged class who've been sitting on it and handed to those who'll build what comes next.
So, in theory and in an ideal world, you can do without the catastrophic event and directly proceed with the transfer...
The fact that in France, and elsewhere in Europe, it's the youth protesting is probably no coincidence - even though they don't frame it as a generational fight. And even though, cruel irony, the left politicians many of them march behind promise to bring the retirement age back to 60 (lcp.fr/actualites/legislativ…), which would make the situation even worse.
Let's say they understand intuitively that the system is stacked against them, even if they haven't yet figured out how. And politicians are obviously doing what politicians do, meaning pandering to the people who actually vote, while pointing the young towards easier - and politically convenient - scapegoats.
To be clear I'm not saying it's the only problem in France, VERY far from it. I'm also not saying that all old people in France live a lavish lifestyle at the expense of younger generations: there are also plenty of very poor retirees who, if anything, would deserve more.
What I am saying is that it's probably the biggest elephant in the room: everyone can see it, nobody dares mention it - no politician, from any side, wants to run on cutting grandma's pension - and it makes every other problem harder to fix.
Rafael Myro retweeted
Underlying shock source?👇
Have we been mismeasuring China Shock 2.0 ?
👉Most comparisons focus on Chinese imports into G7 markets.
👉But in a world of relatively open trade, G7 manufacturers compete with Chinese factories at home, in China, and in third markets.
👉So the global scale of the shock depends on China's production, not just its exports.
🌟That why it matters that China's manufacturing growth is slower today, yet the increments are much larger relative to the G7's manufacturing base.
lnkd.in/p/eiEsA4th
cc: @kaushikcbasu @k_sonin @Lagarde @LHSummers @lindayueh @lugaricano @MarkJCarney @MaxCRoser @michaelxpettis @NateSilver538 @NIESRorg @NOELreports @NOIweala @Nouriel @ojblanchard1 @paulkrugman @PIIE @politico @profsfardoust @RayDalio @RBReich @RobinBrooksIIF @scottlincicome @SimonEvenett @simonjhix @sjwrenlewis @standardandedny @StephanieKelton
Rafael Myro retweeted
La primera evidencia con datos oficiales apunta a que la IA ya frena la caída del paro en las ocupaciones más expuestas en España, por @amjorge15 en base al estudio de González González et al. (2026) @FundacioIEB
elmundo.es/economia/macroeco…
Rafael Myro retweeted
💬 Hablamos mucho de la deuda pública, ya sea en millones de euros o en puntos de PIB, pero mucho menos de su COSTE. Y olvidamos uno de los grandes beneficios del euro: entre 1995 y 2025 la ratio de deuda ha pasado de 60% del PIB a 100%, y sin embargo nos cuesta la MITAD...
1/n
Rafael Myro retweeted
My Op-Ed for @east_asia_forum: #Asia braces for #Europe’s turn on Chinese #overcapacity.
Despite Beijing and Berlin reaching a ‘shared understanding’ to curb Chinese hybrid vehicle exports, the EU is pursuing new trade defence measures in response to its €360 billion trade deficit with China. Asia stands to absorb the consequences, as a tougher EU stance would redirect Chinese exports towards Asian markets and intensify competition. Asian governments face a balancing act: protecting domestic producers while preserving access to Chinese components that support their own exports.
eastasiaforum.org/2026/10/25…
Rafael Myro retweeted
Entrevista de @carlossegovia_ a @jfjimenoserrano, presidente del Consejo de la Productividad de España: "A este ritmo tardaremos 40 años en llegar a la renta media europea" 👇
Algunas claves de la entrevista:
Motor del bienestar y las cuentas públicas: La productividad es clave para la renta per cápita y sostener el Estado del bienestar; elevarla un 10% aportaría 60.000M€, suficiente para cubrir el déficit contributivo de las pensiones y financiar infraestructuras o educación.
Tras la reciente revisión del INE, la productividad por hora crece solo al 0,4% (2022-2026), por debajo del ya modesto 0,5% del periodo 2014-2019.
Convergencia europea en riesgo: A este ritmo se tardarán entre 40 y 50 años en alcanzar la renta media de la UE y, ante el reto demográfico, la renta per cápita española podría estancarse o caer entre 2030 y 2050 si no repunta la inversión productiva
elmundo.es/economia/2026/10/…
Rafael Myro retweeted
🎩 @guardian editorial:
👉💥”Underlying all these is the breakdown of the social contract.
👉A generation expect, with reason, to be worse off than their parents.
👉They are understandably angry at inadequate education and job precarity,
👉are struggling to rent places of their own well into their 20s, and are
👉paying for pensions which they don’t believe that they will ever receive themselves, while
👉the climate crisis haunts their futures.”
Rafael Myro retweeted
My @Bloomberg interview this morning on global financial markets and #AI. Rapid AI adoption could be #inflationary if data-center construction falls short of what is needed to meet demand for compute.
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
Rafael Myro retweeted
Enhorabuena @LulaOficial ! Y no, la ultraderecha no es imparable
Rafael Myro retweeted
⚡ 𝗟𝗼𝘀 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗷𝗲𝗿𝗼𝘀 𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗻 𝗰𝗮𝗱𝗮 𝘃𝗲𝘇 𝗺𝗲𝗻𝗼𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝘂𝗱𝗮 𝗽𝘂́𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗱𝗲 𝗘𝗘𝗨𝗨: 𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝟰𝟵,𝟴% 𝗲𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟴 𝗮𝗹 𝟮𝟴,𝟴% 𝗲𝗻 𝗮𝗴𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗼
🔹 No es que vendan. Sus tenencias están cerca de máximos, en 𝟵,𝟯 𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗼́𝗹𝗮𝗿𝗲𝘀. Lo que pasa es que la deuda crece mucho más deprisa de lo que compran.
🔹 Lo más llamativo es China: de 1,32 billones en 2013 a 591.000 millones en agosto, un -𝟱𝟱%. Hoy tiene solo el 𝟭,𝟴% de la deuda en manos del público, frente al 10,7% en 2013.
🔹 Responde a dos motivos. Uno geopolítico: China quiere ir desligándose poco a poco del dólar. Otro financiero: EEUU tiene déficits en torno al 6% del PIB durante una década y una deuda que va camino del 120%.
🔹 Cambia también quién compra. Los bancos centrales tenían el 71% de la deuda en manos extranjeras en 2013 y el 42% a finales de 2025. Ganan peso los inversores privados (Reino Unido, Islas Caimán), que son más sensibles al precio. Eso empuja hacia arriba la prima por plazo.
Rafael Myro retweeted
I'm thrilled to be launching Econvitals today. It's been the main way in which I have been tracking and understanding the economy over the last several months. And I decided I might as well share it with all of you--for free.
Has a combo of website, email lists & social media.
Rafael Myro retweeted
👇 from @jasonfurman is terrific. There is no one better than @jasonfurman to synthesize for us the most important indicators on the health of the US economy.
econvitals.org/subscribe/
econvitals.org
Rafael Myro retweeted
PIB y población en España. Muy completo y didáctico esto de @Alvaro_Celorio @YulyJara eldiario.es/economia/bueno-e…
Rafael Myro retweeted
⚠️Recordatorio: cuanto mayor es la cuantía que una persona percibe por el Ingreso Mínimo Vital en España, menor es la probabilidad que dicha persona abandone la prestación y comience a trabajar.
Estimaciones AIReF (2026):
airef.es/es/centro-documenta…
Rafael Myro retweeted
So let met get that straight: paying a wealth tax is impossible (“billionaires have no liquidity”, “it would be taxing unrealized gains”, “their wealth is virtual”) but paying half a billion to influence elections is possible. Did I understand well?
Elon Musk has cemented his record as the largest individual political donor in modern American history.
Musk poured $446 million of his own money into this year’s midterm elections, mostly aimed at preserving the Republican Party’s control of Congress. wapo.st/4igb5Kq
Rafael Myro retweeted
Bonsoir M. le Premier ministre @SebLecornu , vous ne pourrez pas maintenir éternellement les privilèges fiscaux des ultra-riches.
La revendication de justice fiscale qui émerge des manifestations est légitime : rien ne justifie le maintien d’un système fiscal dans lequel les milliardaires comme @BernardArnault contribuent moins que le reste d’entre nous.
Rien.
Rafael Myro retweeted
Francia en aprietos: enseñanzas para España, por R. Torres
Francia afronta dilemas presupuestarios y sociales con prima de riesgo elevada.
O bien agrava la crisis presupuestaria, cediendo ante un descontento social … O concentra sus esfuerzos en la contención de los desequilibrios fiscales, so pena de avivar las protestas
España debe crear colchones fiscales, mejorar la eficacia del gasto y reformar ante tipos altos.
elpais.com/economia/negocios… vía @el_pais
Rafael Myro retweeted
Las rentabilidades de la deuda soberana están aumentando y Francia lleva meses con niveles superiores a lo que antes se consideraban países periféricos. ¿Estamos ante una crisis de deuda soberana como la de 2012? Muchas gracias a @ingridgsanchez por contar con mi visión para su interesante artículo en @20m. A continuación, las ideas clave que le transmití 👇
1️⃣ ¿𝗖𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝘂𝗱𝗮 𝘀𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗮? No estamos en ese punto. En la crisis de deuda de la zona euro, Grecia, Irlanda, Portugal y Chipre perdieron el acceso al mercado y tuvieron que financiarse íntegramente con programas europeos y del FMI. España no lo perdió, pero necesitó asistencia europea para recapitalizar parte de su sistema financiero. Hoy ningún país ha perdido el acceso al mercado. Francia paga más por su deuda, pero la sigue colocando. El problema es que la tendencia es mala y que Francia es demasiado grande para un rescate como aquellos.
2️⃣ ¿𝗣𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗹 𝗱𝗲𝗹 𝗕𝗖𝗘? El mandato del BCE es claro: la estabilidad de precios. Pero el BCE reconoce que la estabilidad financiera es una precondición para lograrla. Por eso en 2022, al empezar el anterior ciclo de subidas de tipos, incorporó el TPI. Es un instrumento que permite comprar deuda pública en el mercado secundario cuando los diferenciales se amplían de forma injustificada y desordenada, porque eso impide que la política monetaria llegue por igual a todos los países. Pero tiene condiciones: cumplir las reglas fiscales europeas y tener una deuda sostenible. Si la prima sube porque no hay presupuesto o porque este no aporta credibilidad fiscal, no es una tensión injustificada. En ese caso, la solución estaría en París, no en Fráncfort.
3️⃣ ¿𝗣𝗲𝗼𝗿 𝗾𝘂𝗲 𝗲𝗻 𝗹𝗮 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲 𝗱𝗲𝘂𝗱𝗮 𝘀𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗮? En muchos aspectos, no. Los bancos están saneados, hay supervisión única y un mecanismo único de resolución, existe el MEDE y el BCE tiene instrumentos que entonces no tenía. Además, el sector privado español se desapalancó con fuerza. Sin embargo, la deuda pública sobre PIB es hoy más alta que entonces en muchos países, en particular en Francia, Italia y España. Y hay otra gran diferencia: en 2010 sobraba ahorro en el mundo. Hoy los bancos centrales ya no compran deuda y los Estados compiten por el capital con las grandes tecnológicas, que tienen mejor rating que muchos soberanos.
@rielcano
20minutos.es/lainformacion/e…
Rafael Myro retweeted
Factful Friday up on my Substack:
🌟China Shock 2.0 Was Bigger Than 1.0, by @BaldwinRE rbaldwin.substack.com/p/chin…






























