Senior Economist @resfoundation working on macro, wealth and household balance sheets.
London
Joined August 2009
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New research out from me today: why has Britain experienced so little productivity growth in recent years? And why (at least up until now) has the US has performed so much better?
Spoiler: it’s not just tech companies and energy prices 🧵
UK GDP undershot the forecast and shrank by 0.1% in May, according to the latest @ONS monthly GDP data.
With negative growth in the last two months of data, the UK's late 2024/early 2025 growth spurt looks to be losing steam. 🧵
Not to be confused with yesterday's Fiscal Sustainability Report (FRS) from the @OBR_UK, the @bankofengland has published its Financial Stability Report (FSR) today.
A thread of my favourite charts from the Bank's latest assessment of risks in the UK economy. 🧵
Yesterday, @LalithaTry and I today published new research on the cost of essentials in Britain.
We dig into the rising weight of essentials in family budgets, what that means for life on low incomes, and what the Government should do about it. 🧵
Flash UK PMI data is out from @SPGMarketIntel this morning, giving us an early look at economic activity in May.
My main takeaway: could have been worse.
The composite PMI rose to 49.4, still in shrinking territory but undoing some of April's sharp decline. 🧵
UK GDP grew 0.7% in Q1 according to this morning's @ONS data.
This is welcome, but a combination of our recent past, the latest data and global trade uncertainty suggests it's unlikely to last. 🧵
Really cool to see my research on UK productivity featured in @martinwolf_’s FT column today ⬇️
Global turmoil makes Britain’s productivity predicament even worse on.ft.com/42GLp30 | opinion
New @ONS data this morning suggests that the economy grew a bit faster in the first half of 2024 than previously thought.
But the real news is yet another rise in household saving in Q4 of last year – consistent with consumers becoming more cautious in recent months.🧵
Today's flash UK PMI data from @SPGMarketIntel offers a bit of relief amid the current economic gloom.
In March, the composite growth index rose to a six-month high on the back of an upturn in services growth.
This is great stuff from the IFS. ⬇️
As a fellow wealth researcher and WAS user, I totally share their frustration.
NEW: £2 trillion poorer than previously thought?
📗 @StuartAdam_IFS, @IsaacDelestre, Carl Emmerson and @David_Sturrock's new report finds that a major recent revision by the ONS to official estimates of household wealth is fundamentally flawed:
ALT Quote from IFS Senior Research Economist Isaac Delestre: "Statistics aren’t a sexy topic, but they play a crucial role in painting policymakers a picture of the world they’re seeking to influence. Unfortunately, the economics underpinning this £2 trillion change is fundamentally unsound. If we want our policymakers to be able to make good decisions, we need to provide them with an accurate view of the basic economic facts on the ground. When it comes to household wealth, the ONS isn’t currently doing that."
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UK GDP fell by 0.1% in January. 📉
It's dangerous to read too much into a single monthly estimate but this is yet another disappointing data point - the 5th time in the last 7 months that GDP growth has surprised to the downside. 🧵
This morning's @SPGMarketIntel flash PMIs suggest the UK economy is stuck in the mud.
February's reading (50.5) was little changed from January. We now have 4 consecutive months row of ~no change in activity and a worrying resurgence in cost pressures. 🧵
The context here is stagnation over the second half of last year. Last week's @ONS data had GDP growth of just 0.1% in Q4 2024, following zero growth in Q3.
nitter.gq/simonpittaway/status/1…
The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024, on the back of surprisingly strong December data. This is welcome news, but yet another fall in GDP per capita underlines our ongoing living standards squeeze. A thread on the key takeaways from today’s data.🧵
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The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.1% in the last quarter of 2024, on the back of surprisingly strong December data. This is welcome news, but yet another fall in GDP per capita underlines our ongoing living standards squeeze. A thread on the key takeaways from today’s data.🧵
New paper out from me and @JamesSmithRF today!
We take a look at recent bond market moves, weak UK economic data, and what this all means for the Government ahead of the OBR's March forecast.
New @resfoundation work out today on the Government's recent economic woes and what should be done. Short thread on the findings...
buff.ly/4hAwdcl
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ICYMI, on Friday @mollybroome_ and I wrote about five things to know from the latest wave of the (flawed but still useful) ONS Wealth and Assets Survey.
🚨 New RF analysis published today 🚨
Here's everything you need to know about new data on household wealth on the eve of the cost of living crisis, by @simonpittaway and @mollybroome_ ⤵️ buff.ly/4gi9ReG
We got a double dose of leading indicators for the UK economy today: consumer confidence (bad) and flash PMIs (meh).
Some key takeaways from the first look at the UK's growth prospects in 2025. 🧵
UK GDP grew by 0.1% in November, according to today's @ONS data. A welcome rebound from 0.1% falls in September and October, but the bigger picture is an economy struggling to grow. 🧵
When comparing incomes across countries, we adjust for the local price of all goods and services (known as purchasing power parity, or PPP). But when comparing the incomes of poorer households, shouldn’t we focus on the price of things that matter most to them?🧵
This morning's flash UK PMI from @SPGMarketIntel shows economic activity basically flatlined again in December. Employment also fell sharply and inflationary pressures resurfaced.
A concerning release all round. 🧵
The immediate context here is last Friday's GDP release, which saw GDP contract for the second consecutive month in October.
nitter.gq/simonpittaway/status/1…
Monthly GDP data is notoriously volatile and subject to revisions. But the pattern of slowing growth since earlier in 2024 is clear. And worryingly the consensus forecast had been for GDP to grow by 0.1% in October, so today's data is particularly disappointing.
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UK GDP unexpectedly shrank for the second consecutive month in October (-0.1%), according to this morning's @ONS data.
The UK's growth slowdown in Q3 looks increasingly likely to continue into Q4. 🧵
