Charts Patterns & Community
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$IREN interesting I came across this post from @Invst_Informant just after I was looking at this potentially large scale repeat 🟣
Could we retest or even undercut and bowl out the other side next year ?
The frustration with the recent price action across AI infrastructure and power developers like $IREN, $CIFR, and $NUAI is palpable. But lets take a step back and look at $WGMI because there's a silver lining developing imo.
Since 2022, there've been 4 significant periods of fear and volatility across this sector. In 3 of those instances, the weekly Ichimoku cloud and 100w EMA provided important support near the eventual lows. The exception was April 2025, when price broke below support and completed an expanded flat correction before resuming its advance.
Fast-forward today, and we're testing this same area once again.
The question is whether we're approaching another important bottom or setting up for a repeat of April 2025, where price briefly loses support before establishing a more durable low.
I don't pretend to know which scenario plays out. BUT this is the type of technical environment where investors should begin looking for opportunities to accumulate rather than allowing short-term volatility to dictate and influence their conviction.
Despite all the volatility, $WGMI remains in what is effectively a year-long consolidation above the neckline of a much larger, multi-year accumulation structure.
That neckline sits near $30, while the 100w EMA is currently around $39.40. As long as the former holds on a sustained basis, the broader breakout thesis remains technically intact.
And consider what's happening beneath the surface.
$IREN is scaling contracted AI cloud capacity into operating revenue. $CIFR has secured long-duration HPC leasing commitments. $NUAI is progressing through an earlier stage of the development cycle, where converting power access into tenant agreements and financeable projects remains the critical next step.
These are very different businesses, with different execution risks. But the underlying structural demand for power, compute capacity, and data center infrastructure hasn't disappeared because share prices is down lol.
The market can be right about the LT opportunity and still subject investors to extraordinary volatility along the way.
Whether the bottom arrives this week or requires another corrective leg, I think we're entering a part of the cycle where the risk/reward deserves serious attention. The goal isn't perfectly finding the bottom. It's to recognize when fear is creating opportunities and I think that's where we are now
@cantonmeow @Fibonacci_TA @chad_ventures @Freedom_By_40 @CrypticTrades_ @GreatMattsby
TommyJR retweeted
$IREN Institutional ownership is at ALL-TIME HIGH.
July: 164M
August: 180M (+9.8%)
September: 217M (+20.6%)
October: 220M (+1.4%)
Ironically, sentiment is worse than Tariff wars ,Leopold leverage unwind or even Iran war.
…while institutional ownership quietly kept climbing.
Wall Street. The greatest show on Earth.
$IREN positive RSI divergence showing now on daily just what we were looking for
It's a start .. but still a lot of work to do for the 👑
$IREN added more @ $27
Also cashed out last of Jan2027 LEAPs which I got for 1-2 bucks and added some Jan2029 $40 LEAPs @$11.40 instead
🟣 Has a chance if we bottom here over coming weeks .. could still go lower .. looking for an RSI positive divergence over that timeframe
TommyJR retweeted
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 10/24 footage confirms massive expansion is underway at $IREN's Mackenzie site in BC.
Will @danroberts0101 discuss this on the 11/5 earnings call?
More details to come!
TommyJR retweeted
Last 2-week's retreat in $COMPQ has been on schedule and now almost perfectly on track with Cycle Composite 2026 analogue.
From here and post-Election, the Cycle Composite points to a sharp rally ahead.
I'm not prepared to deny the Cycle Composite, but not used in isolation.
$QQQ $NDX $MSFT $AAPL $NVDA $MU $SPCX $TSLA $GOOGL $SPX $SPY $BTC
TommyJR retweeted
AST SpaceMobile Advances Brazil Expansion with Anatel’s Approval for S-band Spectrum and Secondary Use of the 700 MHz Band, Agreements with Four Regional Operators and Planned Ground Infrastructure
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
TommyJR retweeted
Nebius $NBIS is nearly 50% below its all-time high, and the fear spreading through AI infrastructure is hard to ignore: what if demand keeps growing, but the companies building for it run out of money?
The pressure on $CRWV and $IREN shows how widely that fear has spread. For businesses buying expensive GPUs and renting out computing capacity, access to financing can decide whether a full order book ever becomes a good outcome for shareholders.
We think the market is underestimating how much revenue Nebius can bring online in 2027. Our base case forecasts $21.9B of revenue and $12.5B of EBITDA as new capacity enters service.
But getting there requires $58.8B of cash capex. Even with $21.6B of operating cash flow, including customer prepayments, that leaves roughly $37.2B to fund. The timing of those advances, the availability of secured debt and the price of new equity all matter.
That is where our conviction has to earn its keep. We follow the capacity through delivery, contracts and cash, then account for the debt and dilution needed to build it. Slower commissioning or worse financing terms change the outcome.
We've made the full operating analysis and the bear, base and bull results free to read. The image below puts the capacity, earnings, cash requirements and share count together so you can see what our view depends on.
The new Nebius 2027 report is in the first reply.
ALT Northwise's public Nebius 2027 operating forecast, with Bear, Base and Bull scenarios and a quarterly Base case. Revenue ranges from $19.07B to $24.61B, with $21.86B in Base. EBITDA ranges from $10.26B to $14.82B, with $12.49B in Base. Base operating cash flow is $21.60B and cash capex is $58.77B, leaving a $37.18B funding gap. The table also shows capacity, customer advances, new debt, equity and share counts. Figures are Northwise forecasts, not company guidance.
TommyJR retweeted
Yo Elon, shut the fuck up for a few days
He’s realizing SPACE data centers gonna take longer than he forecasted shocker, so he wants to scoop up data centers on earth 🌍 on the cheap 🤦♂️
We need data centers for e-commerce, social media/tiktok/onlyfsns, porn, search , multiple streaming platforms, you tube, iCloud, transportation, uber/lyft/robotaxi, food delivery services, shipping, enterprise software, music, podcasts, FinX, cloud computing, crypto mining and trading, grand theft auto/call of duty, manufacturing, medicine, healthcare, banking, military/defense, robotics, brokerages/trading, then large language models, open models, agentic workloads, inferencing, cyber security, physical AI, and much more!
TommyJR retweeted
Warren Buffett: “90% of the people that buy stocks don't think of them the right way. They think about them as something they hope goes up next week.”
“I think about what the company is going to be worth 10–20 years from now.”
TommyJR retweeted
🚨 WE EXPOSED THEM. NOW THESE NDIS SCAMMERS HAVE BEEN SHUT DOWN.
While Senator Mehreen Faruqi voted NO to a Senate inquiry into NDIS fraud, we took matters into our own hands. Now Lifelink Supports has had its NDIS business SHUT DOWN.
It takes ordinary citizens to do the work the government should’ve been doing all along.
What the hell are we paying them for? 👇
TommyJR retweeted
Just trying to enjoy a nice family dinner away from FinX, and meanwhile Elon is flooding my timeline with AI data center and NeoCloud doom and gloom.
My takeaway from all of this?
You better make damn sure your favorite AI data center or NeoCloud company has a legitimate path to generating real earnings and cash flow, rather than just piling on debt to fund some grand vision of future profitability.
Having compute capacity is one thing. Turning that capacity into a profitable, sustainable business is another.
The market isn't going to reward speculative promises forever, which I think you have already seen via price action the past month or so.
It's officially put up or shut up time for these companies moving forward.
The good news? The companies that actually execute and emerge as winners in this AI infrastructure buildout are going to be MASSIVE winners.
But the gap between the winners and losers is only going to get wider.
TommyJR retweeted
There seems to be validity to the semi analysis take that $IREN Canadian sites have been lackluster in terms of compute as a service quality. Management’s strength is in finance and infrastructure banking and deal making as well as vision. They should be commended for the financial structures they were prudent enough to build for durability in all macro weather. We should not be so naive as to think that same management isn’t surrounding themselves with people that are going to integrate the technical and product side of the funnel into the business DNA. I think a more nuanced take on the matter is that things take time and it’s ok that the founders’ background is more financial. It has shown tremendous advantage even if the fruits have not yet been made visible, but the market will take notice when some soldiers in the sector start falling and IREN remains sturdy in its financial position. The fact that the product/service needs to improve is self evident, but there’s nothing that suggests this won’t be the case or that management isn’t capable of producing this result. The SemiAnalysis report centered around the OG Canadian sites. Conversions from mining needed to take place and demand for compute was sufficient that customers were willing to have some issues, which is a smaller issue than having no compute at all. The Canadian power footprint is also tiny relative to the power pipeline. With NVDA as a partner, things will get done as they need to get done, something that SemiAnalysis noted, in that Childress and Sweetwater are not subject to the same criticism as Prince George and Mackenzie. You don’t have to take management’s word for their technological progress. Just look at their progress in hiring this year, additions which cumulatively include experience at Oracle, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, Apple, IBM, Google, Nutanix, NVIDIA, Open Compute Project, and others. In addition, the acquisition of Mirantis, which carries large significance for the quality of the compute service IREN intends to grow into:
• Acquisition completed August 4, 2026 (~$625M, mostly stock) to add the missing software/orchestration layer to IREN’s vertically integrated AI Cloud (power + data centers + compute + software).
• Brings k0rdent AI (open-source platform) for workload orchestration, GPU scheduling, provisioning, monitoring, multi-cluster management, and lifecycle operations across bare-metal and virtualized environments.
• Directly supports managed services and enterprise support capabilities—addressing the gap between pure bare-metal GPU rental and full AI cloud offerings that customers expect.
• Improves operational visibility, root-cause analysis, and day-2 operations, which helps with reliability, uptime, and performance issues (relevant to critiques of older sites).
• Deep NVIDIA integration (inaugural AI Cloud Ready partner; works with NVIDIA DSX OS, Infra Controller, Run:ai, and GB200/GB300 systems) to maximize GPU utilization and enable near bare-metal performance with multi-tenancy isolation.
• Serves 1,500+ enterprise customers and continues as a standalone subsidiary, preserving open-source commitments while feeding software into IREN’s platform for faster customer onboarding and higher utilization.
• Enables IREN to move beyond infrastructure ownership toward a more complete, scalable AI Cloud platform that can serve hyperscalers, AI developers, and enterprises with both bare-metal and managed options.
This is a nascent industry still with many moving parts and many ways to bake the cake. I’ll take the chronology of first ensuring the balance sheet is strong and safe and now expanding into higher technological capabilities at the highest level. This is part of patience. Things take time. If everything were certain, there would be no money to make.
TommyJR retweeted
I wish we didn’t have to respond to this today. Our thoughts should be with Helen Haines, and praying for her speedy recovery.
But the Labor and Liberal Dirt Units are already back at work, attempting to use this tragedy to silence their critics and deflect from their own failings. Too many media organisations are happy to help them fling the dirt.
The Please Explain cartoons have nothing to do with the tragic attack on Helen Haines. They will not be going anywhere.
Liberal and Labor politicians want our cartoons censored because they don’t like the scrutiny.
Free speech, satire, criticism and debate are essential to our democracy. They must be protected.
Those seeking to exploit this tragedy to silence their critics should be ashamed of themselves.
What happened to Helen is heartbreaking. Politicians deserve to be safe. So does every other Australian.
When violence touches politicians, the response is immediate: more security, more protection and demands for action. Where is that same urgency when ordinary Australians are attacked?
Too many Australians have experienced violent home invasions, firebombings, machete and gun attacks and carjackings. Innocent Australians are being stabbed on the streets. They cannot call on a security detail. They rely on governments to keep their communities safe.
Where has the Prime Minister been? Where is his determination to confront the crime and violence regular Australians face?
One Nation will continue to hold the Albanese Labor government to account. We will keep speaking up for Australians whose safety and concerns have been ignored.
We stand firmly against hatred, crime and violence. And we will keep working to unite all Australians under one flag.
TommyJR retweeted
Stuff that does NOT happen if there is an oversupply of compute
The Dot com analogy is so incredibly off
GPUs are aging like fine wine, with rental rates up across the board since January 1st
Approximate change YTD:
- H200: +160%
- B200: +120%
- RTX PRO 6000: +65%
- H100: +35%
Even the 6-year-old A100 rents for more than it did at the start of the year
Charts of the Week: a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-we…
TommyJR retweeted
AST SPACEMOBILE SIGNS UP 3 NEW BRAZILIAN MNOS
Unifique, Brisanet and Iez! Telecom sign agreement with AST to offer satellite-based mobile broadband service.
The regional mobile operators will make available the 700 MHz radio frequencies they hold and will be responsible for investing in the infrastructure required to connect their mobile networks to the AST SpaceMobile satellite constellation through ground gateways.
The collaboration aims to enable voice calls, broadband data and video streaming directly on standard, unmodified smartphones, without requiring specialised equipment, software updates or applications.
By integrating satellite connectivity into its existing mobile network, Unifique aims to expand coverage wherever people live, work and travel, allowing customers to remain connected even when outside the reach of terrestrial networks.
“After fibre and 5G, satellite is the next natural step. The partnership with AST SpaceMobile complements our network and brings connectivity to a wider range of areas. Unifique is enabling this additional investment to ensure its presence in the future of communications,” said Fabiano Busnardo, the company's CEO.
José Roberto Nogueira, founder and CEO of Brisanet, added:
“The partnership with AST SpaceMobile complements our network and allows us to deliver connectivity beyond the reach of our terrestrial infrastructure, offering customers access to voice and mobile broadband in more places, using the smartphones they already own; ensuring Brisanet has a place in the future of connectivity.”
The final contractual details are still under negotiation, and the transaction remains subject to certain conditions, including obtaining the necessary authorisations and licences from the regulatory authority.
$ASTS
TommyJR retweeted
$IREN: Built for a Tougher Financing Market
One of the more interesting takeaways from @danroberts0101's latest interview was his commentary around customer prepayments and how $IREN could lean on them more heavily in a tougher financing environment.
He seems as confident as ever despite the current macro / market backdrop, and I think there is a good reason for that.
$IREN is in an ideal position to push for customers to fund a larger share of the capex bill because the company is no longer pre-selling capacity years in advance.
In contrast, a company like $CRWV, with its ~$104B backlog, negotiated and signed many of those contracts months ago under the assumption that financing would remain readily available.
That led $CRWV to actually de-prioritize prepayments at the start of 2026, according to management at the time, leaving the company with a much larger capex bill that now has to be financed primarily through debt and other external capital.
For anyone paying attention, $IREN has proven this year through its contracting strategy that it is by far one of the most nimble and flexible neoclouds in the sector.
Know what you own!
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.
TommyJR retweeted
Pretty similar to the last $WGMI chart below but this time I am using internal fibs. You can see how the two sets of fibs overlap.
This correction is imo another running flat which is almost identical to the one we saw in late 2024-2025 which bottomed in April 2025.
That one bottomed at the 1.618.. I doubt we will go that low but anyways yeah I mean no chart is going to help at this point, its goin to be up to you to dig deep and survive so you can participate in the final leg up in 2027.
I am considering setting up a counseling service/ hotline.
I know the last thing anyone wants to see at this point is another chart but here goes nothing.
I will be out rest of day doing random fall shit with the family and I will pray for all of us at church on Sunday.
$WGMI
TommyJR retweeted
Australia is at a crossroads. We can either drift into a divided society with stagnant real incomes or make the difficult decisions needed to lift productivity and restore growth.
The ALP can't even see the issue, let alone fix it.
Vote them out in 2028.
afr.com/policy/economy/alban…
TommyJR retweeted
IREN’s @danroberts0101 speaks to @ArjunKharpal about AI financing and demand on CNBC.
Watch the full interview.