tt

#Iran War Update No. 11 (focus on Iranian strategic narrative): 🔹There are mounting signs that the war may be moving toward a more dangerous maritime phase. Reports that Iran may have begun mining the Strait of Hormuz have fueled growing concern that Tehran is preparing to impose longer-term costs on global energy flows and maritime trade. 🔹At the same time, some Iranian analysts are speculating that the next phase could involve the Houthis more directly in order to increase pressure on a second strategic chokepoint, Bab el-Mandab. The logic is that simultaneous disruption in both Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor would have a much greater impact on global trade and energy markets than pressure on either route alone. 🔹Political signaling from Tehran appears consistent with that possibility. Ali Larijani said the Strait of Hormuz will either remain a route of peace and prosperity for all or become a place of defeat and suffering for those who wage war in the region, reinforcing the sense that Iran is prepared to escalate further at sea. 🔹Donald Trump warned that any Iranian move to fully stop oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would trigger a decisive American response. Yet later reports suggested that Iran had begun at least limited mining activity, indicating that Tehran may now believe the costs imposed so far have not been sufficient to alter Washington’s calculations. 🔹Iranian calculations appear to be shaped by several factors at once. One is the belief that the United States is unlikely to end the war soon. Another is concern that continued strikes on Iranian missile and naval assets could eventually make Tehran’s strategy of selective disruption of the strait unsustainable, pushing it toward a more direct closure option. 🔹The maritime front is becoming more serious in military terms as well. According to CENTCOM video footage, the United States targeted a Shahid Soleimani class vessel along with several IRGC Navy missile and torpedo boats. The Fateh submarine, Iran’s only operational domestically built semi-heavy submarine, was also reportedly hit. 🔹This comes as Iranian attacks on Gulf neighbors continued, particularly against Qatar and the UAE, while diplomatic channels with some Gulf states remain open. Qatar said communication with Iran is continuing and emphasized that Doha is still focused on de-escalation and diplomacy. 🔹The economic effects of the maritime escalation are becoming more visible. Reports indicate that major oil producers in the region, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain, have already begun reducing production because of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, with an estimated 6.2 to 6.9 million barrels per day effectively offline. 🔹Iranian officials continue to signal that they do not want a ceasefire under current conditions. Kazem Gharibabadi said a halt in hostilities now would make little sense if Iran could simply be attacked again a few months later, while the government spokesperson said any mediation would only be meaningful after a complete halt to the war and firm guarantees against renewed attacks. 🔹Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf made Tehran’s position even clearer. He said Iran is certainly not pursuing a ceasefire and instead believes it must deliver a decisive blow that becomes a lasting lesson to the aggressor. In this view, Iran is trying to break what it sees as Israel’s preferred cycle of war, negotiation, ceasefire, and then renewed war. 🔹At the operational level, Iranian officials continue to emphasize the effects of earlier strikes on enemy radar and early warning systems. The Army spokesperson said that after degrading a significant portion of those capabilities, Iranian forces have been able to strike with greater accuracy and effectiveness in recent operations. 🔹Iranian missile strikes on Israel continued during the day, with growing use of cluster-type warheads. According to Iranian analysts, the goal at this stage is not only to hit strategic targets but also to keep Israeli civilians under continuous pressure by forcing them into shelters and sustaining a climate of disruption and anxiety. 🔹Ghalibaf also warned that Iran is now operating under the logic of “an eye for an eye,” saying that if Iranian infrastructure is targeted, Iran will certainly respond by striking enemy infrastructure in return. That suggests the infrastructure war may deepen further in the coming phase. 🔹Israeli and American strikes inside Iran continued to hit infrastructure as well. One of the latest strikes reportedly hit an area along a major highway in Tehran, halting traffic as smoke rose from the strike site. Some Iranian analysts interpret the increasing intensity of such attacks as a sign of impatience in Washington and Tel Aviv over the difficulty of achieving their strategic objectives. 🔹At the same time, the regime is tightening its internal security posture. Additional checkpoints have reportedly been established across Tehran, and the police chief warned that if people take to the streets they will be treated as enemies and security forces will not hesitate to open fire. This suggests that fear of domestic unrest remains high. 🔹The Lebanon front remains highly consequential. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun sharply criticized Hezbollah and called for direct talks with Israel as part of a plan to end the conflict, citing the massive displacement and casualties caused by the war. 🔹The Iraq front may also be heating up again. There were reports of airstrikes targeting several PMF positions in Iraq. 🔹Diplomatically, maneuvering is intensifying on several levels. Gulf countries are reportedly preparing a UN Security Council draft resolution condemning Iranian attacks and calling for an end to Iranian retaliatory strikes, while Russia has circulated its own draft calling on all parties to halt military activities and condemning attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure. 🔹Russia and China are both continuing de-escalation efforts, though in different ways. Moscow says Putin has put forward several mediation options, while China’s special envoy is traveling to the Middle East and Chinese officials continue to stress the importance of preserving the security and stability of the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹European concern is also becoming more explicit. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany and Europe have no interest in an endless war or in the dissolution of Iran’s territorial integrity, warning that collapse of the Iranian state could create serious economic and migration consequences for Europe. 🔹Overall, Day 11 suggests that the war is moving toward a sharper confrontation over chokepoints, infrastructure, and endurance. Tehran appears increasingly determined to reject a quick ceasefire, widen the costs of the conflict, and force a new strategic equation.