Economist & amateur investor. Interested in Energy, Shipping, Real Estate, Macroeconomics. Mostly value plays. No investment advice. Do your own math.

Joined February 2022
Cavemen Issues Dire Warning That The Wheel Is Going To Eliminate Countless Jobs
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valuehunter retweeted
Самый печальный факт о человечестве, пожалуй, в том, что в XXI веке значительная часть мира впервые в истории получила практически бесплатный доступ ко всей накопленной человечеством информации, но это не привело к золотому веку. Когда-то отсутствие выдающихся ученых, писателей, изобретателей в тех или иных странах и социальных группах объясняли вполне логично: бедностью, отсутствием образования, закрытыми университетами, невозможностью добраться до книг, лабораторий и научного сообщества. Миллиарды людей просто не имели шанса реализовать свои способности. Интернет должен был изменить всё. Сегодня лекции лучших университетов, научные статьи, библиотеки, архивы, музыка, живопись, философия, математика буквально в кармане. Человек из маленького города или бедной страны имеет доступ к объему знаний, о котором ученый XIX века не мог даже мечтать. Казалось бы, результатом должен был стать невиданный интеллектуальный взрыв. Население Земли выросло. Образование стало доступнее. Многие социальные, расовые и гендерные барьеры рухнули. Миллионы людей получили возможности, которых прежде были лишены. По чистой статистике мы должны были бы жить в эпоху невероятной концентрации талантов - нового Ренессанса, переполненного великими математиками, физиками, философами, композиторами, писателями и художниками. Ну и где он?  Вместо золотого века знаний интернет в значительной степени превратился в гигантскую машину по производству коротких видео, бесконечных скандалов, мемов, рекламы и информационного шума. Мы получили доступ практически ко всему человеческому знанию , но и огромная часть человечества использовала его, чтобы бесконечно листать ленту. Интернет  оказался удивительным экспериментом. Мы предполагали, что нехватка информации ограничивает человеческий интеллект. А выяснилось, что избыток информации способен ограничивать его не меньше. Проблема XXI века уже не в том, что знания недоступны. Проблема в том, что среди бесконечного количества информации человеку всё труднее удерживать внимание достаточно долго, чтобы превратить информацию в знание, знание - в понимание, а понимание нечто новое. Глобальное интеллектуальное и культурное истощение - возможно, не просто красивая метафора. И оно гораздо опаснее, чем кажется.
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Why is a company that made $26M in 2q26 and has net cash, trading at a market cap of $24M? $CTRM #shipping #value #investing
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valuehunter retweeted
I spent 30 years in academia. Here are my observations about my students. Toward the end, I was teaching “Gen Z." These students combined ignorance with strident moral certainty. They seemed to have had no general education at all, and lacked the most basic knowledge of history, even recent history. They were immature and emotionally fragile. Many could not handle criticism, no matter how sugar coated. It took very little to reduce them to tears – or to send them into a fit of narcissistic rage. They were shockingly bereft of intellectual curiosity, and many gave the impression of having no internal life at all. I'll share more observations later.
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MPC Oceanic Group (74% held by Castor Maritime $CTRM) reported good 2q26 results. See below. $CTRM is traded at about 0.05 Mcap/Equity with net cash of about $100M (4x mcap !!!)
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valuehunter retweeted
I started a startup in Germany 🇩🇪 in 2020. These are all the INSANE things I've encountered. I kid you not the first thing we got from the government was the equivalent of the IRS asking us to estimate our revenue for that year. We didn't even have a tax number at that point! We were bootstrapping. We are not opening up a fucking bakery. There is no revenue!! The second letter we got was an invoice from the IHK (Industrie- und Handelskammer). To this day I couldn't tell you what they do. They sent us their magazine every 3 months though which is nice I guess. The third letter was for the "Rundfunkgebühr", which is the TV license. I swear, all of this is true. There is a fundamental lack of ambition in Germany. You can succeed but not too much. Too much success is greed. Too much success is evil. The sad part is I don't even see a way out of this. I wish there would be something I could do about it. But there isn't. People would hate you for even trying (look at Elon). Every ambitious person that I know already left or is thinking about leaving. I live in NY now and the difference is insane. The US still attracts the best people. There is no doubt about that. The only thing we are leading now is regulation. It's hilarious to say but very sad at the same time. I don't know where this ends. All I can tell you is that there will be no one left to pay for all the great social services that exist today. Of course I will never start a business in Germany ever again. I'm half German. I lived in 🇩🇪 for 10 years. But jesus christ have we lost the plot.
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valuehunter retweeted
Bessent: “We will grow our way out of debt.” Real GDP growth: 2023: +2.9% 2024: +2.8% 2025: +2.1% 2026: +1.5% (Q2 annualized) US debt growth: 2023: +7.2% 2024: +6.9% 2025: +6.1% 2026: +7.5% (last 12 months) Debt is growing 2–3× faster than the economy. You don’t grow your way out of debt when the debt is outrunning growth every single year. It’s not looking good.
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There will be an illiterate generation with zero attention span in the next 10 years. People will become more informed about everything but lack any depth of knowledge they won’t even have surface-level knowledge. With zero attention spans, it becomes very hard to explain things. Thanks to social media. The next pandemic is Brainrot.
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European tech is simply unstoppable. It's over for Silicon Valley
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This is the chart of MPCC - MPC Container Ships traded in Oslo. Market cap is $1.4B. $CTRM Castor Maritime has a 74% stake in MPC Capital which has a 20% stake in MPCC. So $CTRM holding in MPCC is worth $200M. $CTRM is traded at a mcap of $24M ...
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See excerpt from a letter sent to DoubleDown Interactive $DDI by a shareholder - Four Tree Island Advisory.
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Do yourselves a favor and go look at $DDI. Its like lifting free Dollars from the ground. Good Q2 report, mcap 607M, cash 553M, debt 32M, book $1011M, 2026E ebitda 150-165M.
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Agree with many of your assessments but, knowing the product quality and the customer pipeline, my takeaway is that Innoviz $INVZ is a potential 5-8x gainer once automotive traction is clearer. In the meantime, anti-drone solutions will generate faster revenues and better margins
Although I'm not used to calling a competitor a shitco, all the other publicly traded Western LiDAR companies are indeed shitcos, lol. @robinivski $OUST This applies to $AEVA, $INVZ, $LIDR, and $MVIS. Two common characteristics you can always find in these “shitcos”: 1. They are always talking about new deals, wins, partnerships, agreements, and milestones, but their revenue isn't growing. 2. While they seem to have made so much “progress” in automotive, they started shifting to other verticals like infrastructure and defense about a year ago because automotive is highly competitive, has long sales cycles, and low margins. Any delay can kill a company, just like what happened to Luminar. Now let's look at the real product revenue from these four companies: $AEVA: Q2 revenue of $6.14M, with $2.55M in product revenue. $INVZ: Q2 revenue of $18M, with product revenue not disclosed. Historically, the majority of its revenue has come from NRE. I'd estimate product revenue was around $5M or less. Product revenue in Q1 was disclosed at $3.8M. $LIDR: Q2 revenue of $202K, with $170K in product revenue. $MVIS: Q2 revenue of $1.5M, with $1.27M in product revenue. However, the “predominant portion” of its product revenue came from Iris, a product developed by Luminar and acquired by MVIS after Luminar's bankruptcy. Combined, these four companies generated only about $8.9M in product revenue in Q2. @ousterlidar 's product revenue was $53M in the same quarter and has been growing for 14 consecutive quarters. Three of the four are still selling products at negative gross margins, while MVIS is the outlier with ~40% gross margins—but most of that product revenue currently comes from the acquired Luminar sensor so positive gross margin doesn't mean anything. Also, MVIS ended Q2 with only $27.2M in cash after burning $19.1M of operating cash in the quarter. At that burn rate, its cash balance barely covers the next quarter. It does have $41.2M of remaining ATM capacity, but that would only add 2 months of life. $AEVA announced that it had reached 100K sensors of annual production capacity by the end of 2025. Three quarters later, its quarterly product revenue was only $2.55M, down 39.4% YoY. It seems that only a tiny portion of that production capacity is actually being utilized, probably around 1%–2%. $INVZ is holding a vote on September 16 for a 1:5 to 1:20 reverse split. It already got shareholder approval in 2024 for a 1:4 to 1:10 reverse split, but I guess the board now thinks that wasn't enough. Its only real lifeline is NRE revenue from VW CARIAD and VW/Mobileye. But CARIAD has been demoted, as VW is now working with XPeng in China and Rivian in the U.S. on autonomous driving. Mobileye's founder and CEO stepped down and the company is planning to roll out its own robotaxi to compete with its own customers, lol. So I'm not sure how long this lifeline can last. This reminds me of a line from a famous Hong Kong movie by Stephen Chow: “I'm not saying you're the only one who's garbage. I'm saying every single person here is garbage.”
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valuehunter retweeted
Meta staff DM'd me secretly Posted with permission Meta is ALLEGEDLY building their own Google search engine, so that if their AI does a web search it doesn't end up at Google, as Google could then use it for THEIR training, so they want their own web index that they will then use as their own Meta search engine for their AI Interesting 🤔
Meta is doing heavy heavy heavy scraping on all my sites this week too (and seemingly everyone else's sites now) So much so that I got load average alerts for it today on one VPS The fact that they're hitting url2og (my own screenshot service for all my sites) might they're scraping not just text but images too, so maybe they're working on an image, video or just world model P.S. these stats are just from url2og not even my other sites! You're welcome @finkd but maybe I should start charging you for it with @cloudflare 😊
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valuehunter retweeted
This is a disaster. Not a single European country reproduces its own population. We seem to have forgotten the value of family, and unless we start getting some kids, we Europeans will become irrelevant and taken over by immigration.
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valuehunter retweeted
continuing my war on paid software that should be free, today's victim is: granola. quill gives you the same thing for free and completely private, just start recording and after you stop it, the entire audio gets transcribed into a default folder. completely open source as always
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valuehunter retweeted
When two old guys mean the world to each other
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valuehunter retweeted
As someone who has personally spent $500k / mo+ on Google Ads for years, I can tell you with certainty: This revenue growth in Search is artificial & extremely unhealthy for Google’s business long term Search volumes are declining as legacy search is being increasingly cannibalized by non-monetized LLM queries Google’s response? Manufacture revenue growth via short-sighted, highly extractive, customer-hostile tactics. I.e. charge advertisers more for lower quality clicks, including clicks they do not want and explicitly did not approve Google to charge them for A few examples to illustrate: For all of its history until recently, Google operated on a 2nd price auction model I.e. if you bid $5 CPC and the next highest bidder bids $1 CPC, Google charged you $1.01 for the click (one penny more than the 2nd highest bidder) rather than the $5 you bid This was a genius move by Google early on as it incentivizes advertisers to input their true maximum willingness to pay rather than trying to play the game of bidding low and constantly adjusting to try to stay just ahead of the next highest bidder while still not paying too much However recently, Google silently deprecated the 2nd price auction and began charging advertisers as much as their bid and budget caps allow, regardless of what anyone else is bidding It’s a short-sighted cash grab at the expense of the long term health of the advertiser ecosystem Making thing worse, Google also recently nerfed keyword targeting precision Google previously had precise keyword targeting settings that allowed advertisers pick individual search phrases to bid on, defined down to the character w/ exact match or phrase match targeting This was one of the core features that made search advertising magic, enabling advertisers to run extremely precise campaigns based on exactly what their target customer typed But now, even if you bid on a specific term or phrase using the strictest exact -match targeting settings, Google will show your ad across 1000’s of unrelated keywords, labeling them as as “exact match (close variant)” The definition of “close variant” means whatever they want it to and changes constantly. The result is advertisers get billed for clicks that are totally irrelevant to their business and that their targeting settings explicitly forbid Google from targeting. Google does it anyway and there’s no ability to turn this off So now exact match is broad match, and broad match is just meaningless spam This is all very bad for advertisers, but for Google, it allows them to show your ad and bill you for clicks across 1000x more searches that were previously going unmonetized (mainly because they’re garbage queries no one wants) This is how you grow revenue atop declining search volumes Lastly, and perhaps most egregiously, Google quietly stopped respecting budget caps by a factor of 2x. For example campaigns we’ve been running for years with $1000 daily budget caps suddenly began spending $2000+ per day And the extra spend is entirely on the garbage keywords Google arbitrarily throws in as “exact match (close variants)” which have no value to our business, but can’t be turned off Google offers no refunds nor any recourse for overspend or spend on keywords you explicitly did not target These are not the actions of a healthy business. These are the actions of company whose core business is in decline but desperately needs to pump quarterly earnings so Wall Street will continue to fund insane capex while hopefully looking through their rapidly deteriorating negative free cash flow Google operated a benevolent monopoly for the better part of 25 yrs Meaning the value Google captured from Search was but a small fraction of the value it created, and that spread produced a potential energy that justified expectations of high earnings growth far, far into the future This is now no longer the case At the alter of AI capex, Google is sacrificing the golden goose
Q2 was an amazing quarter, with our AI investments redefining what’s possible across every part of our business. Alphabet revenue grew 24% YoY and Google Cloud accelerated to 82% growth. We saw exciting momentum across the board from Search to YouTube to the Gemini app (which reached 950M monthly active users). Our model APIs are processing 22B tokens/min (up from 16B+ last quarter) driven by our workhorse Flash models. We’re also seeing great adoption of Gemini Enterprise, used by 90% of the Fortune 100, as well as strong demand for our security solutions. Outstanding results and momentum, and such an exciting moment—thanks to all of our partners and employees around the world! 🙌 About to hop on the call!
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The cost of creating enterprise-grade software has declined 75% in the last 12 months. It will continue to decline. The implications are clear: more competition, lower prices, no top-line growth. Sell most software companies.
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valuehunter retweeted
Windows has 200+ services running in the background right now. Most of them exist to collect data on you. Someone built a free, open-source tool that kills almost every anti-user decision Windows has shipped in the last five years. Cortana. Copilot. Start menu ads. Telemetry. Location tracking. Suggested apps you never asked for. Gone. One click. One 8MB .exe. It's called optimizerDuck. The closest thing to "install Windows the way it should have shipped" I've seen. → 35+ optimizations across performance, privacy, GPU, power, services, UX → 200+ services you can toggle, each labeled low, medium, or high risk → vendor-specific GPU tuning for AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel → bloatware remover with a preview of what dies → every action gets a rollback file → prompts you to make a restore point before touching your system No installer. No telemetry. No ads. No premium tier. GPL v3. Runs offline. Windows 10/11 x64.
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