Beat, raise, explore strategic options. All opinions sourced from much smarter ppl
United States
Joined November 2010
- Tweets19K
- Following1.9K
- Followers2.9K
- Likes102K
Pinned Tweet
Hot take: Everything is cyclical, nothing is secular. There are only longer cycles and shorter cycles. At the end of THE GREAT CYCLE we are all dead and the Universe itself burns cold 🥁
Hot take: a company who’s growth goes from 50% to 0% in recession is just as cyclical as a business who’s growth goes from 25% to -25% in a recession
Multiples reflect trend growth so only 2nd derivative
“Secular growth” favorites are actually extremely cyclical
#EFT
BAT retweeted
CEO of snowflake joining Elon in calling top
When your competitor is over levered and you’re under levered in a bull market, your goal is to trigger a bank run
This way you tank the over levered players and look like a genius catching their customers on their way down
Bold
BAT retweeted
Absolute joy to read @matt_levine take on Kalshi @mansourtarek_ absurd WSJ column
bloomberg.com/opinion?cmpid=…
I doubt AI will be highly effective in adaptive and non - deterministic markets like dating.
Equity markets are similar. Your ultra AI enabled portfolio is just another black box quant/ quanta-mental fund. Better models / data/ processes win as always but there is no “solve.”
Grindr is another example:
"A company that benefits from having a lot more intelligence is Grindr. Grindr is the gay dating app, but it has been constrained over its life by the fact that it's just not that big a company.
They've got lots of attention and data, but their ability to build all the things that you could imagine building on what ultimately amounts to a finite size team and budget...has meant in some ways that Grindr can't be all the things you could imagine it could be.
What if you had ten thousand of Google's best engineers to go work on your problem for five years What could you do?"
BAT retweeted
It’s funny that people now flee to the United States because laws don’t apply if you’re right wing. They used to flee to Brazil.
I can confirm that @FlavioBolsonaro is no longer in Brazil and is on his way to the United States.
A US protective operation is underway to ensure his safety.
BAT retweeted
Lula surrendered to justice, faced his accusers, went to jail on tampered evidence, proved his innocence and then won 2 elections in a row.
Flavio fled a day after he won 60 million votes and a congressional majority.
BAT retweeted
NEW: The NCAA tells us ZERO trans student-athletes are now competing in women's sports.
Why does 15% of America think there are tens of THOUSANDS?
"Politics are winning on the back of fiction."
Bullish for Anthropic, but probably more bullish for consumers.
Anthropic allocates 72% of compute to training. Crazy. This confirms what @insane_analyst and others have been saying about 75% going to training. Lot of compute not being used to serve customers but to improve models, LOL.
Ha, the Americans want to “look into” Brazil’s election results.
Perhaps focus on your own third rate “democracy” where the doofus that once attempted to overthrow the government is now looting it on behalf of his family and billionaire friends.
BAT retweeted
"Everything we love is on the line" in the US election. I argue that President Trump has systematically undone the strategy that since the 19th century has made the US the world's leading country. He has eroded our sources of greatness.
So what's at stake isn't just affordability or data centers or the Iran war. It's America's future: nytimes.com/2026/10/24/opini…
BAT retweeted
THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS
What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish?
there were signs, there are always signs 🤣
free link:
hub.tslombard.com/the-perkin…
inspired by @citrini
BAT retweeted
Gorsuch: So the government’s contention is that it’s illegal to be named Dan Sullivan?
Solicitor General: Yes, Justice, if someone already has that name.
Alito: And how would the death penalty *not* be an appropriate remedy?
Breaking news: The Justice Department has moved to preemptively block certification of the results of Alaska’s Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan S. Sullivan loses his tight race against Democrat Mary Peltola next month. wapo.st/47GV3EC
BAT retweeted
In Zucman's world, if you wave your hands and say something is one-off, people won't adapt their behaviour. "Rational expectations!"
This has curious implications. If it's rational to do the tax once, by symmetry, it's rational to do it again.
A second, "one-off" surprise.
🧵
This Hoover Institution study, which has fueled the deluge of ads (more than $200 million spent by billionaires so far) to defeat the California billionaire tax, is spectacularly misleading.
Let me explain its crucial flaw. 🧵
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Zucman argues that the tax will raise his projected revenue because billionaires who leave CA after 1/1/26 will be taxed anyway.
At least $542B of net worth (Page, Brin, Thiel) departed the state by 12/31/25.
The entire thread is a misleading denial of this fact.
ft.com/content/d66976…
nytimes.com/2026/04/27/us/…
forbes.com/sites/forbeswe…
