Insight | Data | Open Source Intelligence Providing intel assessment and data for @FaytuksNetwork (Blackbird).
Joined November 2023
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As stated the Combat Sent is already out flying its first annual sampling run. It will stay for around a month before heading back home.
No the RC-135U Combat Sent is not heading over to CENTCOM this is very irresponsible reporting by some pages.
It is over for its annual baseline sampling run along the eastern front. The support kit for it arrived at Mildenhall last week from Offut AFB.
The combat Sent has a very different mission profile to a Rivet Joint and the data collected from its sample runs is analysed in detail back in the US over many days and weeks.
COBRA49
AE01D5/64-14849/
Offutt AFB to RAF Mildenhall
Civic Intelligence retweeted
An interesting movement overnight caught by @AUX_OSINT and others... the US STRATCOM exercise has ended so this is not related to that... however I must emphasise this was a training sortie - the B-2s did not fly to Iran despite what some accounts are claiming!!
@MATA_osint
No the RC-135U Combat Sent is not heading over to CENTCOM this is very irresponsible reporting by some pages.
It is over for its annual baseline sampling run along the eastern front. The support kit for it arrived at Mildenhall last week from Offut AFB.
The combat Sent has a very different mission profile to a Rivet Joint and the data collected from its sample runs is analysed in detail back in the US over many days and weeks.
COBRA49
AE01D5/64-14849/
Offutt AFB to RAF Mildenhall
Civic Intelligence retweeted
FN Intel: An analysis on the recent activities of CENTCOM CDR ADM Brad Cooper, and wider implications for the U.S.-Iran War:
Cooper flew out of MacDill on a C-17 on the 22nd, landing at Al Bateen, UAE. He left on the 26th and went to Washington, not back to MacDill. The trip wasn't public until the 25th when CENTCOM released photos of him in a CH-47 over the Strait of Hormuz with Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier, the 82nd Airborne Division commander. Officially, it was about mine clearance and shipping, but another way to see it as a last look at the AOR to make sure CENTCOM can execute if ordered.
Today, the WSJ reported that Cooper briefed Trump in person at the White House on Iran’s military options, along with @secwar Hegseth & Chairmain of the Joint Chiefs Caine.
That's rare. He did it on 26 Feb, and the war started two days later. To be fair, he also briefed this group in April, but that didn't lead to strikes.
Other indicators of a continuation of hostilities in CENTCOM:
- Sen. Chris Murphy says some senators have been briefed on the war plan and called it "insane." No details, but it confirms a plan exists and has gone to Congress.
- Gulf states have reportedly been told to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterms.
- The US has ordered non-essential staff out of Saudi Arabia and cut staffing in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, and the UAE. Troop numbers at some bases have reportedly been quietly reduced.
- More AD is moving into CENTCOM, including a Patriot battery to Ovda, Israel.
-On 27 Oct, the FCDO updated its advice for 13 countries. It now says the region is "deeply unpredictable" (previously just "unpredictable") and that "the risk of sudden escalation is high." It also notes Iran has said it intends to target businesses and organisations linked to the US and Israel.
The U.S. is now at a 3rd fork in the road, and POTUS either has to, or already has decided which direction to take.
Brad Cooper flew out of MacDill on a C-17 on the 22nd, landing at Al Bateen, UAE. He left on the 26th and went to Washington, not back to MacDill. The trip wasn't public until the 25th when CENTCOM released photos of him in a CH-47 over the Strait of Hormuz with Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier, the 82nd Airborne Division commander. Officially, it was about mine clearance and shipping, but I see it as a last look at the AOR to make sure CENTCOM can execute if ordered.
Today, the WSJ reported that Cooper briefed Trump in person at the White House on Iran’s military options along with Hegseth and Caine. That's rare for him, and he did it on 26 Feb, and the war started two days later. He also briefed him in April, but that didn't lead to strikes, so it's not automatic.
Other things lining up:
-Sen. Chris Murphy says some senators have been briefed on the war plan and called it "insane." No details, but it confirms a plan exists and has gone to Congress.
-Gulf states have reportedly been told to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the midterms.
-The US has ordered non-essential staff out of Saudi and cut staffing in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar, and the UAE. Troop numbers at some bases have reportedly been quietly reduced.
-More air defence is moving in, including a Patriot to Ovda, Israel.
-On 27 Oct, the FCDO updated its advice for 13 countries. It now says the region is "deeply unpredictable" (previously just "unpredictable") and that "the risk of sudden escalation is high." It also notes Iran has said it intends to target businesses and organisations linked to the US and Israel.
We are now at what I see as the 3rd fork in the road, and Trump has to or already has decided which direction to take.
BREAKING: Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, has briefed President Donald Trump on options for renewed military strikes against Iran. Potential targets include nuclear facilities, missile infrastructure and strategic military sites, as Washington prepares for possible operations following the November 3 midterm elections.
Civic Intelligence retweeted
Latest news commentary:
Three Royal Navy Vanguard-class submarines at sea does not signal change in nuclear posture
navylookout.com/three-royal-…
Civic Intelligence retweeted
A 427th SOS CN-235 was spotted for the first time today since deploying to Soto Cano AB, Honduras, about a month ago.
Credit: Harold Rivas.
Civic Intelligence retweeted
E-3G "SHUCK80" 82-0007 #AE11F0 has departed ETAR and is enroute to OEPS
@DefenceGeek
Sentry Crossing to Europe #IranWar
E-3G "SHUCK80" 82-0007 #AE11F0 has completed a refuel at Bangor (KBGR) and is now en-route to Ramstein (ETAR) in Germany, despite bad weather predicted in the Atlantic near the UK tonight into tomorrow.
This aircraft originally tried to move to the Middle East several weeks ago but returned to Tinker (KTIK) with a reported burst tyre!
@MATA_osint
cc: @zephyrOsint @ArmchairAdml
Tanker numbers at Lajes are back up to previous levels.
Imagery from 14 Oct shows 16 tankers on the ramp, up from 6 on 8 Oct.
Lajes is a key link in the refuelling chain for any US bomber mission to Iran. When the tankers come back, it’s worth paying attention.
Civic Intelligence retweeted
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Civic Intelligence retweeted
The Pentagon has reportedly included the GBU-43/B “Mother of All Bombs” among potential strike options against Iran. However, the U.S. military routinely develops contingency plans covering a wide range of weapons and scenarios. The existence of such plans does not mean a strike has been authorized.
Here’s what to know 🧵
Civic Intelligence retweeted
The U.S. Space Force activated Space Forces Special Operations (SPACEFOR-SOC) on the 7th, establishing its ninth component command.
ALT A Special Operations Forces Soldier participates in a training exercise with the 50th Security Forces Squadron and a tier 1 NATO mission partner at Schriever Space Base, Colorado, Oct. 19, 2023. This exercise increased interoperability and allowed for the 50th SFS to begin employing the Agile Combat Employment concept. (U.S. Space Force photo by Tiana Williams)
Civic Intelligence retweeted
MAP: Russia's "Hybrid War" on NATO 2026
Update: 14/OCT/2026
So, there's been so many incidents that the previous version on Atlist exceeded their free limit for positions to be marked on the map, so I've had to rebuild the entire map with all the existing markers now in Google's "MyMaps", which in theory means I may be able to make this interactive and viewable in the near future!
New incidents include several in the Black Sea, cyber attacks in France and Netherlands, arrests in Latvia and an arson attack in Buglaria. Several suspect package incidents in Netherlands at military facilities and also the ongoing nationwide Finnish parliamentarian home break-ins incident...
As always, map pin locations are as accurate as possible based on public/OSINT information, and in the case of "nationwide" incidents (e.g. cyber) are placed wherever Google Maps decides is the location of that country.
h/t @InsiderGeo
Civic Intelligence retweeted
U.S. KC-135 and KC-46 aerial refueling aircraft are returning to European bases in increasing numbers, with movements accelerating over the past 48 hours, according to tracking by @DefenceGeek and @MATA_osint .
The increase resembles a surge observed shortly before Operation Epic Fury in February.
UPDATE: They're Coming Back Now... #IranWar
As of this morning, we're now at 17 tankers returned to Europe, and 3 more moved from US west coast to east coast in preparation to cross.
That's just in the last 48-72hrs.
Most of the airframes are ones that left in September...
@MATA_osint
Civic Intelligence retweeted
U.S. MILITARY ACTIVITY IS RAMPING UP AGAIN IN THE CENTCOM AOR: A series of aircraft movements and operational changes point to a renewed buildup toward the Middle East, echoing patterns seen ahead of previous regional operations.
- Aerial refueling: More than 17 U.S. tanker aircraft are moving back into EUCOM.
- Special operations aviation: AFSOC aircraft, MC-130J Commando II transports, are redeploying to CENTCOM, with multiple aircraft already having arrived.
- Electronic warfare: Both EA-37B Compass Call aircraft have arrived at Crete, after recently returning to the continental United States.
- Ramstein Air Base: The base is operating at capacity, with movements restricted to high-priority missions.
In collaboration with @Civicintel1 at @FaytuksNetwork.
Iran - US Movement updates last 7 days.
- Significant surge coming out of CONUS for CENTCOM. Similar to preparations we have seen before.
- Ramstein is operating maxed out for the next 5 days and restricted to high priority movements only.
- Circa 12 JBLM C-17’s deployed to support Ramstein movements into CENTCOM.
- Tankers have started to make their way back over into EUCOM.
- Both EA-37B Compass Call that had only just returned to CONUS redeployed back to Chania.
Civic Intelligence retweeted
UPDATE: They're Coming Back Now... #IranWar
As of this morning, we're now at 17 tankers returned to Europe, and 3 more moved from US west coast to east coast in preparation to cross.
That's just in the last 48-72hrs.
Most of the airframes are ones that left in September...
@MATA_osint
They're Coming Back Now... #IranWar
As those of you who have been following me for a while know, one of the areas of build-up/monitoring I focus on is the USAF KC-135/KC-46 tanker fleets. Recently I noted a significant reduction in the numbers across Europe, while the number in CENTCOM remained relatively steady at ~100.
Well, following news that the Trump administration is considering new strikes at/around the midterm elections, I've noticed an increase in the number of tankers returning to Europe. In the last 36hrs alone, I've noted 11 returns specifically to European bases.
It is likely an indicator that preparations for further combat operations are indeed underway - ultimately the fast-jets and ISTAR platforms are still in place so things could start moving quite quickly!!
@MATA_osint
Civic Intelligence retweeted
SYNAPSE Analysis: The concentration of specialized U.S. assets suggests Washington is building a wider set of rapidly executable options rather than simply reinforcing the existing regional posture. According to The Atlantic, the White House has asked the Pentagon to prepare strike options against Iran, with CENTCOM developing potential courses of action. The alternative is that U.S. intelligence has identified a developing contingency requiring a heavier response posture.
The SOCOM deployment is particularly notable because it appears to provide CSAR capacity beyond the standard posture, while also enabling infiltration, extraction and direct-action support. Previous deployments involving the 160th SOAR alongside Special Tactics and Delta Force show these assets can support missions well beyond personnel recovery. A concentration of roughly 30 MC-130Js would similarly represent significantly more capability than would typically be required for CSAR alone.
EA-37B Compass Call aircraft appear to be redeploying to CENTCOM, adding a specialized electronic-attack capability to the growing U.S. force posture. The movement appears consistent with preparations supporting the White House’s request for military options to renew combat operations against Iran which could arrive, per The Atlantic, before the midterms.
Civic Intelligence retweeted
EA-37B Compass Call aircraft appear to be redeploying to CENTCOM, adding a specialized electronic-attack capability to the growing U.S. force posture. The movement appears consistent with preparations supporting the White House’s request for military options to renew combat operations against Iran which could arrive, per The Atlantic, before the midterms.