10year+ manager of £20 million risk fund. Legal insurance risk assessor for 26 years. 55yo #BLM 🌈+ ally. 🚫No DMs
Bristol, England 🇬🇧
Joined January 2014
- Tweets109K
- Following58.1K
- Followers53.7K
- Likes87.8K
Pinned Tweet
This is going to be a very bad winter, possibly the worst ever. Prepare for power outages. Stock plenty of non-perishable food and tap water. Think about lighting and battery options. Think about how to stay warm.
It's a global mass delusion, a global mental illness.
The word 'plateau' is nice-sounding but 60 billion tonnes of CO2-equivalent still went into the atmosphere. 60 BILLION TONNES.
Around 20 billion tonnes of that CO2 will be absorbed by sinks.
So that leaves 40 billion tonnes CO2-equivalent (all GHGs combined) added to the existing 1,800 billion tonnes already in the atmosphere which causes 10C of global warming.
The "possible plateau" is cosmically unrelated to challenging the 2C target.
Despite a possible plateau in global greenhouse-gas emissions last year, average temperatures are set to hurtle past 2 °C
go.nature.com/4ByihdU
Look at the yawning chasm between physical reality and what's going out to people watching TV.
Spot The Misinformation/Propaganda!
❌ 1.5C exceeded because of Trump.
No, it's due to the GHGs in the atmosphere.
❌ We are burning through the carbon budget.
No, we are in astronomical carbon debt.
❌ Bringing down CO2 levels will reduce warming back below 1.5C.
No, the GHGs already in the atmosphere cause ~4.8C of global warming after fast feedbacks. This is doubled when slow feedbacks are included (Hansen).
❌ There is no 1.6C or 1.7C exit. No exits of any kind are possible.
❌ ~1.8C with this El Niño WILL feel like going off a cliff.
❌ Jackdaw and Rosebank are far, far too small to make any difference to climate. However fossil fuels will be desperately needed to survive climate impacts.
❌ We need to be reducing carbon emissions.
No, emissions cuts would catastrophically *accelerate* warming because reduced toxic air pollution would unmask existing GHG climate forcing.
youtu.be/xh2kE3mo0zo?is=oQcL…
Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate retweeted
This graph has scared the shit out of me since 2022. Because physics doesn't care what you believe.
From the last IPCC report AR6: STRONG, EVER-INCREASING GLOBAL WARMING IF ALL EMISSIONS END.
Chapter 6 of Working Group 1 report.
States that if all emissions stop, loss of air pollution aerosols causes immediate, strong warming which continues to increase for centuries...
IPCC report: "As a consequence, in idealized Earth System Model studies that assume an instantaneous removal of all anthropogenic or fossil fuel-related emissions, a rapid change in aerosol levels occurs leading to large increases in Global Surface Average Temperature with the rate of warming lasting for several years. Similarly, the thermal inertia causes the pulse emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers to have a significant effect on surface temperature even after 10 years.
In summary, for SLCFs with short lifetime (e.g., months), the response in surface temperature occurs strongly as soon as a sustained change in emissions is implemented and continues to grow for a few years, primarily due to thermal inertia in the climate system (high confidence). Near its maximum, the response slows down but will then take centuries to reach equilibrium (high confidence). For SLCFs with longer lifetimes (e.g., a decade), a delay equivalent to their lifetimes comes in addition to the delay due the thermal inertia (high confidence)."
The umbrella of human-made particulate air pollution has been cooling the planet to the tune of at least 2 watts per m² (Hansen).
That's at least 2.4C of cooling. Without this transient air pollution our species would already be extinct.
As this umbrella reduces, global warming and all forms of extreme weather drastically intensify almost immediately.
columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/
"A Miracle Will Occur" - James Hansen...
You are getting blasted by a firehose of outrageous misinformation and propaganda every waking minute.
Every fraction of a degree of global warming matters.
Yet greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels.
The new @UNEP #EmissionsGap Report shows what it will take to change course & pull back from the brink of a climate catastrophe.
unep.org/en/news-and-stories…
Spot The Misinformation/Propaganda!
❌ 1.5C exceeded because of Trump.
No, it's due to the GHGs in the atmosphere.
❌ We are burning through the carbon budget.
No, we are in astronomical carbon debt.
❌ Bringing down CO2 levels will reduce warming back below 1.5C.
No, the GHGs already in the atmosphere cause ~4.8C of global warming after fast feedbacks. This is doubled when slow feedbacks are included (Hansen).
❌ There is no 1.6C or 1.7C exit. No exits of any kind are possible.
❌ ~1.8C with this El Niño WILL feel like going off a cliff.
❌ Jackdaw and Rosebank are far, far too small to make any difference to climate. However fossil fuels will be desperately needed to survive climate impacts.
❌ We need to be reducing carbon emissions.
No, emissions cuts would catastrophically *accelerate* warming because reduced toxic air pollution would unmask existing GHG climate forcing.
youtu.be/xh2kE3mo0zo?is=oQcL…
The umbrella of human-made particulate air pollution has been cooling the planet to the tune of at least 2 watts per m² (Hansen).
That's at least 2.4C of cooling. Without this transient air pollution our species would already be extinct.
As this umbrella reduces, global warming and all forms of extreme weather drastically intensify almost immediately.
columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/
"A Miracle Will Occur" - James Hansen...
No one is directly looking at our situation full in the face. If toxic air pollution doesn't keep pace with global warming, then global warming accelerates. Part of the doubling of the rate of warming to 0.4C is an aerosol Termination Shock. Air pollution is a highly temporary human-made sunshade which is constantly being replenished by the ongoing burning of fossil fuels. Existing GHGs cause 10C of global warming and stay in the atmosphere forever as far as humans are concerned. The idea that cutting fossil fuel emissions can help us provides a degree of comfort but it is false comfort, made-up nonsense.
"The Faustian aerosol bargain arises from the simultaneous production of greenhouse gas warming and aerosol cooling, both primarily a result of fossil fuel burning. In a 1990 article in Nature, Andy Lacis and I described this, pointing out that aerosol cooling can continue to offset a large fraction of greenhouse warming only if particulate air pollution continues to increase rapidly. But at some point fossil fuels will run out, or people will get fed up with increasing air pollution and decide to clean up particulate pollution. Then, because greenhouse gases remain in the air for centuries and aerosols fall out within days after aerosol emission stops, the payment—via rapid increase of global warming—will come due."
— James Hansen, Storms of My Grandchildren
Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate retweeted
The riots in France have multiple complex economic and social causes, but I have to wonder whether the scorching hot summer contributed some to the discontent.
In a country where most homes and businesses lack air conditioning, this last summer would have been insufferable.
Q. If the rate of additional warming is 0.4C per decade and the current global warming is 1.5C, when will we reach 2.8C?
The world is on track for 2.8 degrees C of warming this century, a gross breach of international climate targets, according to a new U.N. report.
e360.yale.edu/digest/emissio…
Confirmation of 0.4C/decade.
My new video:
Global Warming Rate Has Recently Doubled Meaning We Pass 1.5C By 2028 and 2.0C by as Early as 2038
youtu.be/ZRDpJazOpTk?si=LHXw…
#climate #Climatewarriors #Climateinternship #weather #war #globalwarming #science #humanity
Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate retweeted
“El Niño is fueling a chain reaction of wildfires across the tropics…”
The Amazon is burning again. Air pollution is getting worse, people’s health is at risk, and the worst may still be ahead.
scitechdaily.com/the-amazon-…
We are in the lag.
If you only understand one thing about climate change.
We aren't destroying the planet in real time. We have already destroyed it in the future due to what has happened in the past. This is cause and effect, with long delays in between in an unfathomably complex, planet-sized system full of things that take time to change, that need to be pushed to change.
It takes time for the Earth's oceans, snow/ice, atmosphere etc to respond to humanity's geologically instantaneous explosion of greenhouse gases.
The amounts of human-produced GHGs in today's atmosphere are beyond belief. It will take thousands of years for the changes that human activity on this planet have set in motion to fully play out.
But warming is fast on a century timescale, with 60% or more of the total eventual "equilibrium" warming materialising.
We're in an oven set at 200C. Nothing much seems to happen for some time. It takes time to warm up and get hot, but for this planet it's an inexorable physical process, as certain as a dropped ball hitting the ground.
Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate retweeted
Yes, ultimately, though individual scientists will be unaware. The fossil fuel industry controls everything through investments. I did a long thread on the capture of climate science and scientists.
Hjfxtd khih ezzrxf ohkbv ujrjdx.
The gap is stark: the new UN Emissions Gap Report finds that global emissions must fall 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, alongside a scale-up of carbon removal, to minimise 1.5°C overshoot and return below 1.5°C by 2100. 2 chapters were led by PIK scientists. pik-potsdam.de/en/news/lates…
El Nino isn't separate from global warming, it IS global warming.
It's hard to believe that some experts aren't aware that El Niños have a step-change (ratchet) effect on global climate.
El Niño warming is categorically not temporary.
It is irreversible, permanent, forever.
El Niño is the engine that heats up the planet in apocalyptic surges.
This might be the single most important thing to understand about our situation.
For clarity, I added the steps to the graph...
Risk Expert tells the Truth about Climate retweeted
Almost as if the heat that had been stored (hiding) in the oceans is being belched into the atmosphere, where it then lingers . . . 🫠
Putting >90% of the excess heat retained by the planet into the oceans has consequences, it turns out.
