Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981) header
Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981) profile picture

Meteorologist @ Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (@ipma_pt) | Climate researcher @ Instituto Dom Luiz (@IdlLuiz), University of Lisbon (@ClimateIDLCC)

Joined September 2019
Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)Photo by Pedro Sousa (@PMSousa1981)
Pedro Sousa retweeted
The IPMA has released a very interesting statement detailing the potentially major threat Storm Charles posed and why it ultimately failed to reach that potential. The article: ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/ne… I’ve already mentioned a lot of these points in my last few updates, but it’s interesting to see it written from the perspective of the IPMA and how it affected their issuance of Red Warnings for both rain and wind. I commend the @ipma_pt for the way they handled this storm, even though the impacts were nowhere near as significant as they could have been. This is how lives can be saved when the next major storm like Kristin actually affects Portugal.
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Pedro Sousa retweeted
THIS IS WHAT FAILURE LOOKS LIKE. This map shows how profoundly our planet has warmed within a Baby Boomer’s lifetime. And the most disturbing part is that we knew this was coming. 1965: President Lyndon Johnson’s own scientific advisers warned that burning fossil fuels was increasing CO₂ and could cause significant changes to Earth’s climate. 1977: Exxon’s own scientists warned company executives about global warming. Their predictions would prove remarkably accurate. 1988: NASA scientist James Hansen famously testified before Congress that human-caused global warming was already underway. The warning made front-page headlines. 2015: Nearly every nation on Earth came together for the Paris Climate Agreement, pledging to limit warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C. 2026: More than 6 decades after the White House warning, greenhouse gas emissions keep climbing to extraordinary new highs year after year, and the science indicates that global warming is accelerating. That brings us to this map. Across vast stretches of the tropical oceans, October 2026 temperatures were more than SIX standard deviations above the 1940–1970 average. In a stable/ normal climate, a six-sigma event would be virtually impossible - statistically a 1-in-1 Billion+ chance. Yet these extremes now cover enormous areas of the planet. The explanation? Today’s climate is no longer centered on the temperatures of the mid-20th century. We’ve shifted the entire temperature distribution. The current map shows a profoundly different planet than the one nature provided. Yes, natural fluctuations like El Niño add to the warmth. But they are superimposed on a long-term warming trend driven overwhelmingly by human activity. We were warned. The science was remarkably accurate. We had decades to act. And while progress has been made, it has not been nearly enough. In fact, instead of slowing warming, we continue to speed it up. This is what decades of insufficient action, climate denial, and deception looks like.
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Pedro Sousa retweeted
Climate in motion: The shifting bell curve ... dancing as the planet overheats. Building more climate visualizations at Celsius Earth to keep track of our planet's "heart beat" w/EKG and pulse. celsius.earth/motion/bell-cu…
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Earth has been this warm before during Homo sapiens’ 300,000-year history. The scary part is the current speed of warming. Past swings unfolded over millennia. Today’s warming occurred in decades. Even allowing for smoothed ice-core proxies, the rate of change is immense. Source: reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful…
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Cansa repetirlo: la paleoclimatología —el estudio del clima en escalas geológicas— es parte de la climatología, no una objeción contra ella. De hecho, es justo al revés. Saber cómo era el clima hace millones de años es precisamente lo que nos permite medir cuán anómalo es el presente. Por eso, cuando alguien suelta el clásico "es que el clima siempre ha cambiado", la respuesta es sencilla: lo sabemos. Y lo sabemos gracias a la climatología, a través de la paleoclimatología. Este gráfico es exactamente eso: cientos de millones de años de temperatura reconstruida. Y por eso el tramo final no es una curiosidad más… es preocupante. Porque el detalle clave está en la escala. Los últimos ~100 mil a 2 millones de años —los ciclos glaciales— marcan la banda de temperatura dentro de la que ha existido el mundo tal y como lo conocemos. Y ahora estamos empezando a salirnos de esa banda por arriba; de mantenerse la tendencia, la superaremos con claridad. Y aquí está lo que de verdad importa: bastaron apenas ~10 mil años de clima excepcionalmente estable —el Holoceno— para construir toda nuestra forma de organizarnos: la agricultura, las ciudades, la civilización entera. Un parpadeo en el gráfico. Todo lo que somos se levantó dentro de ese margen estrecho y estable. Y es justo ese margen el que estamos abandonando.
Replying to @glezjuanje
¿Y??? El clima está en cambio constante, con grandes subidas y grandes bajadas a lo largo de la historia de la tierra. Si llevamos 50/60 años de subida de las temperaturas, es porque antes hubo 70/90 años de bajada de las mismas. Y eso todo englobado en un ciclo de 300 años de subida de las temperaturas desde la pequeña edad de hielo del siglo XVIII. Y eso todo englobado en un ciclo de 12.000 años de subida de las temperaturas desde la última glaciación. Informemos correctamente, sin alarmar, a la población. Sobre todo, porque no hay ninguna evidencia, NINGUNA, de que el ser humano esté teniendo una influencia decisiva en este súper ciclo de subida de las temperaturas. Aunque es obvio que hay gente que quiere alarmar con eso de “emergencia climática”para seguir cobrando dinero del erario público, cantidades ingentes de dinero, decenas de miles de millones anuales. Todo esto del cambio climático es al final un negocio con el que algunos se están forrando.
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The difference between "There used to be hot summers too." and climate crisis.
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Está é a vaga de calor mais precoce em França desde, pelo menos,o início do século passado. A máxima facilmente chegará aos 36°C, fazendo equivaler a várias no verão A onda de calor define-se como 5 ou mais dias com anomalia 3°C acima da máxima do intervalo da normalidade
Quatro dias consecutivos com máximas a rondar os 37°C na costa atlântica francesa em pleno mês de maio, a quase um mês do início do verão astronómico. E ainda há quem se digne a dizer que isto é “só o verão”.
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Pedro Sousa retweeted
Coming back to the Portugal windstorm, now showing animation of the Airmass RGB combined with LI flash size data and ESWD reports in the last hour. Note two waves of severe wind gusts: the first with a cold front and the second one with the famous sting jet, including 58 m/s gust
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Western Europe summer high temperatures have increased ~2.6 °C (4.7 °F) during just the last 50 years. That's in a world with only 1.4 °C of global warming.
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Uma tristeza ver esta sequência cronológica...... ... E ver o dramático resultado de quando não se confia na ciência, e se menospreza as indicações (neste caso mais do que alarmantes) dadas entidades responsáveis pela meteorologia, mais do que atempadamente!
En medio de la tragedia por las inundaciones en la Comunidad Valenciana, algunos están culpando a la @AEMET_Esp. Estas son las pruebas y la cronología que demuestran que la AEMET advirtió del riesgo hasta 5 días antes. Emitieron un buen número de avisos en los días previos🧵
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Science is not a belief system You cannot pick & choose which bits to believe & which to deny Science is rational/logical system based on collecting observations & evidence on which modern society is based So believe/deny whatever you want: Earth 🌍 is still getting hotter 🥵
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Pedro Sousa retweeted
Imagine how scary it’d be if we didn’t know why global temperatures were rising. #420day
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Vista do nevoeiro no estuário do Tejo hoje de manhã @ipma_pt
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É que é mesmo tão "simples" como isto! Mas claro que mesmo assim irão continuar a aparecer que nem cogumelos uma série de "iluminados" com as mais brilhantes teorias para refutar o irrefutável. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Climate change is simple. We started burning fossil fuels during the industrial revolution, adding extra carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. As a direct consequence - due to well understood physics - global temperatures started to increase. We are now experiencing the consequences.
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Some models predict some tropical remnants (probably from Franklin) interacting with the current low west of Iberia, and regaining strenght, once again with tropical or sub-tropical characteristics, wandering around western Iberia, with landfall. Interesting days ahead! 😬
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GIF shows wind gusts from ICON model. @meteociel
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Whats driving record-setting global temperatures in 2023? A switch from persistent La Niña conditions to a growing El Niño on top of warming from human emissions, with minor contributions from the solar cycle, the HT volcano, and marine low sulphur fuel standards.
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