
Meteorologist @ Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (@ipma_pt) | Climate researcher @ Instituto Dom Luiz (@IdlLuiz), University of Lisbon (@ClimateIDLCC)
Joined September 2019
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Pedro Sousa retweeted
The IPMA has released a very interesting statement detailing the potentially major threat Storm Charles posed and why it ultimately failed to reach that potential.
The article: ipma.pt/pt/media/noticias/ne…
I’ve already mentioned a lot of these points in my last few updates, but it’s interesting to see it written from the perspective of the IPMA and how it affected their issuance of Red Warnings for both rain and wind.
I commend the @ipma_pt for the way they handled this storm, even though the impacts were nowhere near as significant as they could have been. This is how lives can be saved when the next major storm like Kristin actually affects Portugal.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
THIS IS WHAT FAILURE LOOKS LIKE.
This map shows how profoundly our planet has warmed within a Baby Boomer’s lifetime. And the most disturbing part is that we knew this was coming.
1965: President Lyndon Johnson’s own scientific advisers warned that burning fossil fuels was increasing CO₂ and could cause significant changes to Earth’s climate.
1977: Exxon’s own scientists warned company executives about global warming. Their predictions would prove remarkably accurate.
1988: NASA scientist James Hansen famously testified before Congress that human-caused global warming was already underway. The warning made front-page headlines.
2015: Nearly every nation on Earth came together for the Paris Climate Agreement, pledging to limit warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C.
2026: More than 6 decades after the White House warning, greenhouse gas emissions keep climbing to extraordinary new highs year after year, and the science indicates that global warming is accelerating.
That brings us to this map.
Across vast stretches of the tropical oceans, October 2026 temperatures were more than SIX standard deviations above the 1940–1970 average. In a stable/ normal climate, a six-sigma event would be virtually impossible - statistically a 1-in-1 Billion+ chance. Yet these extremes now cover enormous areas of the planet.
The explanation? Today’s climate is no longer centered on the temperatures of the mid-20th century. We’ve shifted the entire temperature distribution. The current map shows a profoundly different planet than the one nature provided.
Yes, natural fluctuations like El Niño add to the warmth. But they are superimposed on a long-term warming trend driven overwhelmingly by human activity.
We were warned. The science was remarkably accurate. We had decades to act.
And while progress has been made, it has not been nearly enough. In fact, instead of slowing warming, we continue to speed it up.
This is what decades of insufficient action, climate denial, and deception looks like.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Climate in motion:
The shifting bell curve ... dancing as the planet overheats.
Building more climate visualizations at Celsius Earth to keep track of our planet's "heart beat" w/EKG and pulse.
celsius.earth/motion/bell-cu…
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Earth has been this warm before during Homo sapiens’ 300,000-year history. The scary part is the current speed of warming. Past swings unfolded over millennia. Today’s warming occurred in decades. Even allowing for smoothed ice-core proxies, the rate of change is immense. Source: reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful…
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Cansa repetirlo: la paleoclimatología —el estudio del clima en escalas geológicas— es parte de la climatología, no una objeción contra ella.
De hecho, es justo al revés. Saber cómo era el clima hace millones de años es precisamente lo que nos permite medir cuán anómalo es el presente.
Por eso, cuando alguien suelta el clásico "es que el clima siempre ha cambiado", la respuesta es sencilla: lo sabemos. Y lo sabemos gracias a la climatología, a través de la paleoclimatología.
Este gráfico es exactamente eso: cientos de millones de años de temperatura reconstruida. Y por eso el tramo final no es una curiosidad más… es preocupante.
Porque el detalle clave está en la escala. Los últimos ~100 mil a 2 millones de años —los ciclos glaciales— marcan la banda de temperatura dentro de la que ha existido el mundo tal y como lo conocemos. Y ahora estamos empezando a salirnos de esa banda por arriba; de mantenerse la tendencia, la superaremos con claridad.
Y aquí está lo que de verdad importa: bastaron apenas ~10 mil años de clima excepcionalmente estable —el Holoceno— para construir toda nuestra forma de organizarnos: la agricultura, las ciudades, la civilización entera. Un parpadeo en el gráfico.
Todo lo que somos se levantó dentro de ese margen estrecho y estable. Y es justo ese margen el que estamos abandonando.
Replying to @glezjuanje
¿Y???
El clima está en cambio constante, con grandes subidas y grandes bajadas a lo largo de la historia de la tierra.
Si llevamos 50/60 años de subida de las temperaturas, es porque antes hubo 70/90 años de bajada de las mismas.
Y eso todo englobado en un ciclo de 300 años de subida de las temperaturas desde la pequeña edad de hielo del siglo XVIII.
Y eso todo englobado en un ciclo de 12.000 años de subida de las temperaturas desde la última glaciación.
Informemos correctamente, sin alarmar, a la población. Sobre todo, porque no hay ninguna evidencia, NINGUNA, de que el ser humano esté teniendo una influencia decisiva en este súper ciclo de subida de las temperaturas.
Aunque es obvio que hay gente que quiere alarmar con eso de “emergencia climática”para seguir cobrando dinero del erario público, cantidades ingentes de dinero, decenas de miles de millones anuales.
Todo esto del cambio climático es al final un negocio con el que algunos se están forrando.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Está é a vaga de calor mais precoce em França desde, pelo menos,o início do século passado. A máxima facilmente chegará aos 36°C, fazendo equivaler a várias no verão
A onda de calor define-se como 5 ou mais dias com anomalia 3°C acima da máxima do intervalo da normalidade
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Coming back to the Portugal windstorm, now showing animation of the Airmass RGB combined with LI flash size data and ESWD reports in the last hour. Note two waves of severe wind gusts: the first with a cold front and the second one with the famous sting jet, including 58 m/s gust
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Western Europe summer high temperatures have increased ~2.6 °C (4.7 °F) during just the last 50 years.
That's in a world with only 1.4 °C of global warming.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Science is not a belief system
You cannot pick & choose which bits to believe & which to deny
Science is rational/logical system based on collecting observations & evidence on which modern society is based
So believe/deny whatever you want: Earth 🌍 is still getting hotter 🥵
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Imagine how scary it’d be if we didn’t know why global temperatures were rising. #420day
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Whats driving record-setting global temperatures in 2023?
A switch from persistent La Niña conditions to a growing El Niño on top of warming from human emissions, with minor contributions from the solar cycle, the HT volcano, and marine low sulphur fuel standards.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Since the 1860s the science community has understood that adding more carbon dioxide & other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere would warm the climate. In 1938, @GuyCallendar first linked the burning of fossil fuels to the observed rise in CO₂ levels & global temperatures.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Inspired by the thread below, here is a late contribution to TidyTuesday. This graph aims to show the changing distribution of global temperature anomalies over various 30-year periods, from 1881 to 2020.
#TidyTuesday #rstats #dataviz #climatechange
This Post is from an account that no longer exists. Learn more
Pedro Sousa retweeted
climate model predictions of global average temperature (ensemble mean and spread; see: realclimate.org/index.php/ar…) vs. observations, including provisional 2023 estimate (green bar indicates uncertainty range--see: nitter.gq/hausfath/status/167879… ).
h/t/ @hausfath & @ClimateOfGavin
Replying to @hausfath
With half the year now behind us, we estimate that 2023 annual temperatures have a roughly 81% chance to be the warmest year on record.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Cooler La Niña years are hotter than the hottest El Niño years less than a decade ago. So when an El Niño comes, like now, there's no analogue. Record heat becomes inevitable. We're in unchartered climate territory
Pedro Sousa retweeted
...People who disagree most with the scientific consensus know less about the topic, but they think they know more.
A língua Portuguesa na sua infinita sabedoria já tinha cunhado este conceito. “Pato-Bravo” 🦆
science.org/doi/10.1126/scia…
Pedro Sousa retweeted
Here are the big takeaways from the @IPCC_CH Synthesis Report released today.
First, climate change has already caused widespread and substantial losses to almost every aspect of human life on this planet, and the impacts on future generations depend on the choices we make NOW.
Pedro Sousa retweeted
📢O que é um heatbusrt, o fenómeno meteorológico que afetou Beja na madrugada de 21/05❓ Em 5 min registou-se uma rajada de vento de 53 km/h, uma subida da temperatura de 22.9°C para 33.4°C e uma descida na humidade relativa de 49% para 13% 👉 https://nitter.gq/t.co/snlTRV0Yvb
#SabiaQue












































