Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS: FUD vs REALITY
FUD: No more debt financing is available — the credit window for neoclouds is shut.
Reality: Within days of this doom FUD Nebius announced a $3.5 billion senior secured facility from Citi (364-day bridge, starting at Term SOFR + 2.75%, capped at +3.50%). This follows a $775 million GPU- and contract-backed facility (SOFR + 2.50% to 2030). And yesterday a new €250M loan was secured for Bethune France. The company cites more than $40 billion in long-term contracts with investment-grade customers (including Microsoft and Meta) that can support additional asset-backed financing, plus substantial customer prepayments that cover a large share of related capex. So the reality is financing access remains open on attractive terms.
FUD: This is an AI bubble — demand will collapse and GPU prices will crash.
Reality: GPU rental prices keep rising. Nebius raised on-demand rates effective October 1 (H100 roughly +17% to $4.50/hr, H200 +20%, B200/B300 up similarly). Its CRO has said prices are rising faster than expected, 2027 capacity would sell out if brought online, and a similar dynamic could extend into 2028. Older chips (A100s, H100s) are pricing above levels from when they were new. Elon Musk / SpaceX has described a lasting shortage of superintelligence compute, with rivals wanting capacity, strong pricing power, and aggressive buildouts (targeting roughly 13 GW of compute by the end of 2027). Demand is not cooling.
FUD: AI infrastructure isn’t profitable — it’s just endless cash burn.
Reality: In Q2 2026, Nebius’s core AI cloud business (≈98% of revenue) delivered an adjusted EBITDA margin of ≈50% (49.7%, or ~$286 million on $575 million of AI cloud revenue). Group adjusted EBITDA was $236 million on $582 million of revenue (~41% margin), up sharply from a loss a year earlier. Revenue grew 454% year-over-year, ARR reached $3 billion, and management reaffirmed guidance for ~40% group adjusted EBITDA margins, $3–3.4 billion full-year revenue, and $7–9 billion year-end ARR. Pricing and utilization are improving, not deteriorating.
FUD: Customer concentration and hyperscaler competition will kill the model.
Reality: Large contracts with investment-grade customers (Microsoft, Meta, and others) provide multi-year visibility and prepayments that de-risk buildouts. Nebius is also signing billions worth of deals across other major AI labs, quant firms, and enterprises while expanding its software/stack offerings. Hyperscalers are simultaneously capacity-constrained and still renting externally, so the shortage narrative from SpaceX and others reinforces that external supply remains valuable.
FUD: Capex is unsustainable and will force massive dilution or distress.
Reality: Capex is large ($20–25 billion guided for 2026) because demand is pulling capacity forward. The market got spooked by Coreweave 10X1 debt to cash balance but Nebius balance sheet is roughly 1X debt to cash! Nebius funding is diversified across customer prepayments (covering 50–60% of related capex on many deals), operating cash flow, convertible notes, and the new secured facilities. The company has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to raise capital on non-dilutive or attractively structured terms while maintaining a substantial cash position. Nebius keeps building the right way by respecting the balance sheet.
Bottom line: The dominant FUD narratives treat Nebius like a pure high-risk story with closed funding markets, evaporating demand, and structurally unprofitable economics. But the operating and financing REALITY shows the opposite… a company with strong core-cloud margins (~50% adjusted EBITDA), rising prices, sold-out or sellable capacity, multi-billion-dollar contracted backlog, elite clients/partners including Meta, Microsoft Nvidia and Palantir and continued access to debt and prepayment funding.
NFA - Always Do Your Own Research
2027 gap will be even bigger when more compute comes online!
$NBIS
$NBIS
It’s been one year since I first bought NBIS.
My first entry sure wasn’t the best, at peak October, I was able to average down a lot by buying at 69 back in February.
Let’s try to see how the stock has done in a year.
• Price: $106 → $159 (1.5x)
• Quarterly revenue: $105M → $582M (5.5x)
• Run-rate revenue: ~$430M → $3B (7x)
• EBITDA: -$21M → +$236M, 41% margin
• ARR guidance: ~$1B → $7–9B
• Commitments: $17B → $40B+
• Power plan: 1 GW → 5 GW
• Valuation: 57x → 14x current ARR
The stock is the cheapest it's been in a year, everything else improved, and soon enough so will the price.
Bullish $NBIS
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS's Independence campus could become a foundation for years of US growth, giving Nebius more control over where and how it adds compute.
The site is planned for up to 1.2 GW across four buildings. Owning that footprint lets Nebius plan power, cooling and later expansions together. The buildings and electrical infrastructure can support several generations of GPUs, giving it a place to expand customer capacity over many years.
For shareholders, the opportunity is a larger business built on infrastructure Nebius controls. Ownership also puts more of the construction and financing burden on Nebius. The return depends on getting power, computing equipment and customers into place together. Delays leave capital tied up longer before it earns revenue.
That makes the power arrangements central to the story. The utility supply, off-site Blue Valley generation and future on-site generation are separate parts of the plan. A power-station permit is progress, but it does not establish operating compute.
The 1.2 GW is ultimate planned capacity. Our review did not verify current active IT MW. Nebius's May 2026 guidance pointed to Missouri operations in 2027, while its four-building plan spans five to seven years. Confirmed power delivery, commissioned capacity and customer activation will show when that long-term opportunity starts contributing to the business.
Our refreshed Independence report explains the full site, its power arrangements and the path ahead, with new diagrams and direct tracker and model connections.
🤖 Made with AI
ALT Conceptual diagram of planned power pathways for Nebius's Independence campus. The off-site Blue Valley / Independence Power Partners generation project connects through the SPP grid and Independence Power & Light utility supply. An arrow labeled 800 MW utility plan leads to the campus, labeled up to 1.2 GW planned. A separate dashed arrow shows a future 400 MW on-site generation option under evaluation. Planned power is not current operating capacity. The illustration is conceptual, not a photograph or as-built site plan.
$nbis almost a year later... @romanchernin might be spot on
$NBIS is preparing for an AI Neocloud winter
It is quite interesting to hear $NBIS co founder Roman Chernin discuss this in his latest interview with Reuters.
“We should be ready for when the winter will come,” Chernin said, adding that Nebius would then act as a consolidator.
The idea is simple. By locking in long term revenue streams with highly solvent hyperscalers, $NBIS should be able to survive a bear market, while weaker neoclouds may go under as their cash flows are tied to unprofitable small AI startups.
After this potential winter, $NBIS could emerge as a consolidated category leader in the space.
$nbis 2027 goal - watch out Siemens, BMW, Mercedes etc
finance.biggo.com/news/0DV69…
Middle East is flooded with oil $$$ and they need to diversify their assets. $NBIS
$NBIS potential data center partner: DAMAC
Arkady met with DAMAC's managing director during GTC.
DAMAC is one of the largest real estate developers in the UAE, and its data center arm, DAMAC Digital, is building 6GW of AI capacity worldwide.
Where its biggest capacity sits:
◆ Finland: ~2.4GW
◆ Thailand + Indonesia: ~1GW+
◆ Saudi Arabia: ~205MW
That's Nebius's home turf, its APAC expansion, and right next to its recent Oxagon deal in NEOM.
Nothing's signed yet. But Nebius needs powered sites, and DAMAC is building them exactly where Nebius wants to be.
I see this as a likely partnership.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
funny how the # of customers hitting us up for neocloud capacity (even at large volume) is at an all-time high while neocloud stocks are at rock bottom
wild divergence between fin bros and tech bros
one side is pretty wrong. time will tell which :)
$nbis We Neb-tards have been in @nebiusai long enough and we have researched the company & yandex thoroughly to understand that they only execute and will get it done!
$PANW CEO saw Elon's neocloud FUD coming months ago.
"Neoscalers will survive. Neoclouds won't"
"Nebius is going to reach scale, will be called a neoscaler"
$NBIS is not a neocloud. Never was.
@nikeshgarera ( · ❛ ֊ ❛)
Director Grimme is one of us!
$nbis
$nbis 👀
$NBIS Director Arne Grimme continues to buy the dip
8 open-market buys since October 15th.
Week 1 (Oct 15–21):
→ 5 buys, ~$25K each
→ 743 shares at $164–170
Week 2 (Oct 22–26):
→ 3 buys, ~$122K total
→ 770 shares at $154–162
Total added:
→ ~$248K, 1.5K shares, $163.7 avg
Yes, these buys run on a 10b5-1 plan he set up in June.
The plan simply establishes how many shares to buy, when, and often at what prices. Once it's in place, a broker carries out the trades automatically.
But he was the one who locked in these execution parameters back in June, long before this dip.
Since then, his plan has executed every single trading day since Oct 15, and the buys have got bigger as the price dropped.
Watch what insiders do.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
$NBIS has a real shot at becoming a megacap in AI economy and I've been adding during this drawdown because Token Factory could help it earn more from the same GPUs as inference demand grows.
And unlike the “guppies” Elon warned about, Nebius has ~$8B in cash and expects over $9B in customer prepayments to help fund that growth.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
Avride has been named Autonomous Vehicle Solution of the Year in the 2026 AutoTech Breakthrough Awards!
From robotaxis on Dallas roads to delivery robots on sidewalks and campuses, we’re building autonomy for the real world.
Multiple applications. A growing impact.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
there's a lot of FUD on the timeline this week, so i went back to my favorite story about how fear actually spreads.
three schoolgirls on a train once started a run on a perfectly healthy bank.
Japan, December 1973.
one of the girls had just landed a job at Toyokawa Shinkin, a small local bank. her friends teased her that banks were "dangerous" (they meant robbers).
it was a joke. she didn't take it as one.
that night she asked a relative if it was true.
The relative asked someone else, and the question passed from family to family, through a beauty salon, picking up weight as it went.
Then a man borrowed a shop phone and told someone to withdraw 1.2 million yen for a routine payment. a listener overheard and assumed he knew something.
now the rumor had a witness.
a taxi driver later traced how the story changed in a single day:
- afternoon: the bank "might be in danger"
- 2:30: "it is in danger"
- 4:30: "it will go into bankruptcy"
- night: "its shutter will never be lifted tomorrow"
nobody added a single fact, each retelling just dropped a hedge.
by the end, more than a billion yen had walked out the door. The Bank of Japan rushed in cash and stacked it a meter high in front of the vault so people could see it with their own eyes. Police went looking for the crime behind the rumor and found nothing, the bank had done nothing wrong.
so why does the scary version always win?
because a loss feels about twice as strong as an equal gain. Psychologists have measured it for decades. Standing in line costs you an afternoon, but being the one who stayed could cost your savings. with that trade in front of you, running is the rational move, even when the bank is fine.
which brings me to this week.
the timeline is busy with stranded compute and debt stories. Those are fair questions, and some builders will deserve them, but the rumor doesn't check who, it hits everyone standing closest.
so do what the Bank of Japan did, skip the gossip and go look at the vault.
is the power actually connected?
are the customers actually signed?
is the money already there?
those answers don't change because a post went viral. They change slowly, in substations and contracts and concrete.
and that work didn't stop this week. If the cranes are still up, the racks are still getting installed and the demand that started all of this is still there.
a run doesn't make a bank unsound, it just tests whether it was.
Toyokawa survived, the ones building on solid ground usually do.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
🚨 $NBIS Update: Nebius raises another €250M for its Béthune Data Center 🇫🇷
Debt markets may be closed to neoclouds.
For the thousandth time, Nebius isn't a neocloud. It's an AI Cloud.
Don't be a headline guzzler. Do your homework.
💰 Nebius lève encore 250 millions d’euros pour son data center près de Lille, dévoile @thierrymestayer.
Le site que le géant néerlandais du cloud prévoit d’ouvrir fin 2026 sera l’un des plus puissants d’Europe.
l.linforme.com/ye2vfe3z
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
GTC Berlin may be over – now the fun continues in Vienna with @TEDAIVienna. Greatly looking forward to it, and proud that @nebiusai is a sponsor.
More info here: tedai-vienna.ted.com/
#TEDTalks #TEDConferences #TEDAI #TEDAI26
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
Elon Musk has been absolutely brutal toward the neocloud sector, suggesting that most of these companies will eventually fail.
And I don’t think he’s wrong.
I fully expect consolidation in this industry. The winners will be companies that can secure long-term customer contracts, maintain strong relationships with $NVDA, keep a healthy balance sheet, and access massive amounts of financing through institutional capital and customer prepayments.
This is where $NBIS stands out as a neo-scaler.
The demand for AI inference isn’t going anywhere. If anything, it will accelerate dramatically over the coming years.
Filter out the FUD and know what you own.
Ray.NebiusMaxxing 🇸🇬 retweeted
Nebius CRO says customers are already asking for capacity for late 2027 and early 2028, and reveals Nebius will not have enough either
Marc Boroditsky (CRO): “Well, we already know because it’s already happening. I mean, the conversations we are having at Nebius House, urgency, urgency. I think the reality is people have been forecasting eventually supply will catch up with demand and that’s just not happening."
"And it seems like every one of these GTCs, people are just re-forecasting when that’s going to happen. And folks that have any kind of plans are realizing they need to be thinking now about how they’re going to take care of those plans. So we’re hearing from customers about what they need late in ‘27, early in ‘28."
"And candidly, we’re going to be in the same situation as everybody else, which is we don’t have enough capacity to support them.”
Michael Dell says the memory crunch will get worse in 2027 based on what he sees right now because AI demand is growing faster than supply and new fabs won’t produce until 2029
MIMS: “Do you see that bottleneck easing at all?”
DELL: “I think it’s going to get worse in 2027 based on what I see right now.”
MIMS: “The memory crunch.”
DELL: “Yes. And the reason is that it takes about four years to build a new memory factory. There are a number of them under construction. Micron for example, we’re a big Micron customer.”
MIMS: “Right, like they’ve pledged $30 billion to build construction here in the US.”
DELL: “Exactly. And those factories will start producing in 2029. And so maybe 2029, everything will be fine. What I see is the way people are using this technology now is very different than it was even a year or two ago.”
MIMS: “With AI, you mean?”
DELL: “With agents. Yes, exactly. And so the demand is growing faster than supply. It takes four years to build these factories. So I don’t think that the shortage is going to quickly resolve itself.”
We can fight the $nbis FUD together!!
$NBIS BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says he's more fearful of SHORTAGES in AI than an AI bubble
Question :
"Are you concerned about an AI Bubble?"
0:52 – Larry Fink:
[...] I don't see anything but a bubble.
I see greater shortages. An the shortages are:
-Skilled trade
-Shortages of power
-Shortages of energy
-Shortages of chips
-Shortage of memory.
So the whole supply chain from the base of people working up until the most advanced computer chip, we have shortages.
[...] I hear a lot of people fearful about a bubble.
I'm more fearful that we're not going to be able to execute and fulfill the opportunity to make sure that America is the winner in this AI race"
🔥🩳
youtu.be/F5rtxPZQlvQ?t=52
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