a very bad ๐Ÿ’ฉpodcast about #VC #secondaries broken unicorns โค๏ธโ€๐Ÿฉน๐Ÿฆ„ & busted carry ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ™ˆ| @davemcclure @amanverjee @practicalVC

Silicon Valley, CA
Joined August 2025
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โ€œ$518B in compute and 80 pages of risk factors.โ€ This week: @Anthropicโ€™s leaked S1 and whether its $2T IPO lands by Thanksgiving. Episode 50 of @tradingvcs w/ @AmanVerjee & @davemcclure is here! 00:46 - [ tech and vc news ] 05:24 - surprising numbers from Anthropic S1 leak 12:14 - rising costs of AI data center buildout 18:03 - soaring AI safety concerns 22:13 - how midterms will impact AI 27:53 - @ouraring pulls $2.2B IPO 32:29 - chipmaker @AMD $8.2B @theworldlabs acquisition 34:53 - @ElevenLabs doubles valuation to $22B 40:06 - [ intvw: Sam Lawson, Managing Partner @ Flywheel ] 48:56 - reasons for starting Flywheel 1:00:37 - state of the venture secondary market 1:00:52 - secret stallions 1:05:55 - VC market trends and predictions 1:17:59 - [ valuation corner: nuclear startup @AaloAtomics @ $3B ] 1:22:04 - forces driving nuclear demand 1:24:44 - will the nuclear startup boom stick?
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sorry we did another ๐Ÿ’ฉshow this week on #TradingPlaces: - #Fed hikes rates, #Warsh gives Trump the ๐Ÿ–•๐Ÿฝ - #Anthropic delays IPO to Nov - #OpenAI will wait until 2027, but raising pre-IPO round @ $1.2T - AI regulation + Trump #AiForce - Agent AI: Meta #Muse & #Instinct - @Nscale files IPO @ $30-35B - @MistralAI raises @ $24B - @Cohere $20B merger approved - Dan Gray @credistick @JoinOdin - โ€œobvious to idiotsโ€ - Val Corner: #ShieldAI cc @AmanVerjee @PracticalVC @TradingVCs
Meta's @Muse is #1 on the App Store, ahead of ChatGPT. @alexandr_wang ๐Ÿ‘ @AmanVerjee: "If I had to short one company right nowโ€ฆ I'd short Instinct." A $10B valuation, with Sequoia and Benchmark rumored to lead. @davemcclure isn't so sure. Who's right? Episode 49 of @TradingVCs is here: 1:06 - [ tech and vc news ] 3:29 - Fed rates jump to 4%, gas @ $4.50/gal 8:16 - @AnthropicAI delays IPO; @OpenAI raising @ $1.2T 12:00 - Does AI need govt regulation? 16:54 - @nscale files for IPO 20:45 - EU AI rising: @MistralAI $24B, @cohere @ $20B 24:07 - @Gemini joins AI hacker club 25:33 - @Meta @finkd launches AI agent Muse; Instinct raising @ $10B @sequoia @benchmark 33:47 - [ intvw: Dan Gray @credistick, research lead, @JoinOdin ] 39:48 - Venture has eaten the IPO 41:19 - Shifting VC strategies 58:45 - How AI could upend VC industry 1:13:39 - Contrarian take on upcoming AI IPOs 1:13:21 - [ valuation corner: @shieldaitech seeks $20B ] 1:17:08 - Impressive founding brothers @brandontseng2 @rtsengusa 1:18:30 - Why VC defense investment is growing 1:22:18 - Breaking down world-wide defense budgets
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Biased opinion, but this is easily one of my favourite podcasts on VC โ€” @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee are legends, with great perspective on the big picture. It was a pleasure to chat with Dave about what we do at @JoinOdin and some of the topics I've been writing about recently.
Meta's @Muse is #1 on the App Store, ahead of ChatGPT. @alexandr_wang ๐Ÿ‘ @AmanVerjee: "If I had to short one company right nowโ€ฆ I'd short Instinct." A $10B valuation, with Sequoia and Benchmark rumored to lead. @davemcclure isn't so sure. Who's right? Episode 49 of @TradingVCs is here: 1:06 - [ tech and vc news ] 3:29 - Fed rates jump to 4%, gas @ $4.50/gal 8:16 - @AnthropicAI delays IPO; @OpenAI raising @ $1.2T 12:00 - Does AI need govt regulation? 16:54 - @nscale files for IPO 20:45 - EU AI rising: @MistralAI $24B, @cohere @ $20B 24:07 - @Gemini joins AI hacker club 25:33 - @Meta @finkd launches AI agent Muse; Instinct raising @ $10B @sequoia @benchmark 33:47 - [ intvw: Dan Gray @credistick, research lead, @JoinOdin ] 39:48 - Venture has eaten the IPO 41:19 - Shifting VC strategies 58:45 - How AI could upend VC industry 1:13:39 - Contrarian take on upcoming AI IPOs 1:13:21 - [ valuation corner: @shieldaitech seeks $20B ] 1:17:08 - Impressive founding brothers @brandontseng2 @rtsengusa 1:18:30 - Why VC defense investment is growing 1:22:18 - Breaking down world-wide defense budgets
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If you want to save money on your 2026 taxes, signup for one of our free #DAF education webinars this Thu 9/24 or Mon 9/28 โ€” info: PracticalVC.com/DAF โœ… Learn how to donate #startup stock or #VC funds to your own DAF (Donor Advised Fund), and save $25K-100K or more on your taxes every year๐Ÿ’ฐ This can be *very* useful if youโ€™ve had a big #secondary sale or #IPO in 2026, a large #capital gain, or just ordinary #income to offset๐Ÿงพ You can also use your DAF to #invest tax-free in #startups & VC funds, or give to #charitable groups #nonprofits that have positive impact on the world๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿฝ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ DAF education webinars are hosted by @PracticalVC + @UI_Charitable
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Instead of having a human go out all the time to look for hot new companies, Jason tasks an AI agent with pre-Series-A contenders out of MIT, Stanford, and Harvard each week. How much of deal sourcing can AI actually handle?
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#TradingPlaces: the 2nd-worst VC #Secondary Podcast ๐Ÿ’ฉ๐Ÿ’ฐ โ€œThe Top 20 Most Actively-Traded Private Companiesโ€ ๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ‘€ (aka the #Augment #Power20) youtu.be/NjnrC6prKVM @TradingVCs with @AdamCrawley1 @Augment Markets & Marcelo @Ballve @Sacra cc @PracticalVC
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our podcast is ๐Ÿ’ฉ but the memes kick ass๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿ‘ this week on #TradingPlaces: - #Dario leaves #Sama in the dust ๐Ÿ‡๐Ÿ’จ - #Jensen "Sugar Daddy" drops $500B on err'body๐Ÿ’ฐ - #Anthropic IPO $2T+ by October ๐Ÿ“ˆ - #Cursor $60B acq closes (SF RE agents party) ๐ŸŽ‰ - #Stripe acq @OpenRouter for $7B๐Ÿ’ˆ - @Databricks raising @ $190B ๐Ÿงฑ - @Kalshi + @Cognition both raise @ $40B ๐ŸŽฒ - @AmanVerjee book launch BigBubbleTrouble.com๐Ÿ“— ... plus #NapoleonDynamite dance-off ๐Ÿ•บ cc @TradingVCs @PracticalVC
Anthropic vs. OpenAI: Inside the $2 Trillion IPO Race ๐ŸŽ™๏ธ This week @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee dive into the biggest VC news of the past week, and give a valuation analysis on $8B defense-tech startup @HadrianInc. [ tech and vc news ] ๐Ÿ‘‡ 00:56 โ€“ Aman's โ€œHistory of Financial Bubblesโ€ book launch ๐Ÿ“– 01:20 โ€“ are we in a bubble right now? ๐Ÿซง 02:00 โ€“ @Anthropic IPO in Sept/Oct? โณ๏ธ 05:30 โ€“ โ โ @Nvidia mobilizes $500B with 6 Finance Giants ๐Ÿข 11:22 โ€“ AI race: Anthropic is Secretariat, OpenAI is Twice a Prince ๐Ÿ‡ 12:06 โ€“ potential timeline for @OpenAI IPO ๐Ÿคทโ€โ™‚๏ธ 14:22 โ€“ @SpaceX acquires @cursor_ai for $60B ๐Ÿค‘ 16:11 โ€“ @Canva growth rates slow down, valuation cut ๐Ÿ˜ข 20:55 โ€“ @stripe acquires @OpenRouter for $7B ๐Ÿ’ณ 22:41 โ€“ Silver Lake takes @Workday private ๐Ÿ” 24:26 โ€“ @databricks valued at $190B ๐Ÿ’ฐ 26:17 โ€“ @Kalshi and @cognition raise at $40B valuation each ๐Ÿ… [ valuation corner: Hadrian @ $8B ] 30:45 โ€“ unconventional founder story @2112Power ๐ŸŽต 33:00 โ€“ solving long-standing problems in weapons manufacturing ๐Ÿน 33:28 โ€“ can set up new production lines in months, not years ๐Ÿญ 35:00 โ€“ signed massive contract with @USNavy ๐Ÿšข thanks for watching the race with us!
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Wow. Airtable, founded in 2012 and once valued at $11.7B, is getting acquired by Bending Spoons, founded 2013, at 2.7x ARR. A once hot startup; now an unfortunate victim of the SaaS bust. It raised $1.4B only to be sold for $1.285B EV ($2.25B equity value), just clearing its preference stack. That implies common and early holders split the remaining ~$850M, a ~10x haircut from peak.
We've officially agreed to acquire Airtable for $1.285B! ๐Ÿ˜
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We've officially agreed to acquire Airtable for $1.285B! ๐Ÿ˜
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Robinhood now makes more transaction revenue from prediction markets than from either stock or crypto trading... Prediction market take rates are massive, 170x higher than stocks per $1 traded For every $1,000 traded, Robinhood generates roughly: Stocks: $0.13 Options: $1.47 Crypto: $2.50 Prediction markets: $23.00 Prediction markets currently monetize about 16ร— better than options, 9ร— better than crypto, and 170ร— better than stocks. These are assumptions for Options and Prediction markets, but I think they are conservative. Options assumes an average premium of $300 per contract. Prediction markets assume an average trading price of 50ยข per contract.
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Sidny Lopes Cabral's stunner vs. Argentina in extra time has been officially named Goal of the Tournament ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป We're giving it Celebration of the World Cup, too ๐Ÿ†
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Replying to @JensenHuang @nvidia
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For my first post, Iโ€™m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Wโ€ฆ
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There is roughly three trillion dollars sitting in the venture market and one hundred twenty seven trillion in the public markets. Almost none of the public side is growing fast enough to absorb what venture is trying to hand it. @aramverdi , partner at @AccoladePrtnrs and former investor at Andreessen Horowitz, on why the public markets are starving for the companies venture is holding onto. "Above 10 times EV to next 12 months revenue, six companies." "If I think about a Databricks or Anthropic and their growth rates, if they were to go public, like those growth rates in SaaS don't exist today in the public market. So they would trade at a premium." Two years ago dozens of public software companies traded above that multiple. Now there are barely more than a dozen, mostly names the market has decided are real AI winners. That scarcity is exactly why the biggest private companies are staying private. Nobody public is growing fast enough to make them look expensive by comparison. Growth used to be common. Now it is the whole trade.
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OMG this podcast is SO BAD.๐Ÿ’ฉ wild speculation, inaccurate tech & financial analysis, clueless hot takes, and the hosts are a couple of tier 3 entitled VC jackasses. ๐Ÿซ๐Ÿซ complete & total waste of time. ๐Ÿ™ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ vs ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ in AI just went nuclear. Kimi K3 is beating US frontier models on benchmarks. DeepSeek is raising at $71B New ep of Trading Places is live โ€” @adamcrawley1 & Marcelo @ballve break down the new Power 20 rankings, plus a valuation corner on @CrusoeAI's $30B raise with @AmanVerjee & @davemcclure But first... the news ๐ŸŽง๐Ÿ‘‡ 00:53 - [ tech and vc news ] 2:00 - post-IPO SpaceX: big flop? ๐Ÿ“‰ 5:39 - @AnthropicAI races to Q4 IPO ๐Ÿ’ฐ 7:26 - Chinese AI @Kimi_Moonshot vs. US models ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 14:26 - @deepseek_ai raises $1.5B @ $71B ๐Ÿค– 16:15 - @stripe bids $53B for @PayPal, not enough? ๐Ÿ’ธ 22:49 - the European Anduril: @HelsingAI ๐Ÿ›ฉ๏ธ 24:46 - [ intvw: adam crawley @AugmentMarkets & marcelo ballvรฉ @sacra ] 25:00 - breakdown: the new Augment Power 20 โญ 27:24 - how Power 20 rankings are calculated ๐Ÿ’ก 33:02 - most active ๐Ÿ’ช Power 20 companies Q2 '26 40:08 - largest risers ๐Ÿ“ˆ in price gains 42:15 - bold predictions for Q3 ๐Ÿ”ฎ 54:37 - [ valuation corner: @CrusoeAI @ $30B ] 54:43 - neo-cloud platform explained โ˜๏ธ 55:03 - rapid revenue growth ๐Ÿš€ 58:29 - the AI "stack" breakdown ๐Ÿฐ 1:01:11 - pick-and-shovel play โ›๏ธ๐Ÿช 1:05:07 - second takes ๐Ÿ˜‚
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๐Ÿš€Jeff Bezos's physical-AI startup Prometheus raised $12B at a $41B valuation last month. But what do they actually do? "They're a startup, but they're worth $40 billion. Jeff Bezos is a pretty amazing entrepreneur and once-in-a-lifetime entrepreneur... I think they're in the physical AI infrastructure world. They're competing in hard manufacturing. These are things that Jeff Bezos knows. It's about logistics and hard manufacturing in the world of atoms, but using that to enable AI." โ€” @AmanVerjee with @davemcclure on @TradingVCs Podcast
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AI + venture + secondaries are breaking in real time on E32 of @TradingVCs with @AmanVerjee and @davemcclure ๐Ÿšจ [ tech and vc news ] 01:22 โ€“ Warsh fed chair moves up ๐Ÿช‘ 03:52 โ€“ Iran war ends when ๐Ÿค” 06:15 โ€“ @AnthropicAI $1T valuation ๐Ÿ’ฐ 08:10 โ€“ @cursor_ai & @SpaceX engage ๐Ÿ‘ฐโ€โ™€๏ธ 14:21 โ€“ @OpenAI Launches GPT 5.5 + Images 2.0 ๐Ÿš‚ 17:54 โ€“ @AngelList @naval launch USVC ๐Ÿ’ธ 25:11 โ€“ @Polymarket & @Kalshi double down ๐ŸŽฒ [ valuation corner: Cursor @ $50B ] 29:31 โ€“ what is Cursor ๐Ÿค– 31:24 โ€“ CEO @mntruell & MIT team ๐Ÿ‘ฅ 33:12 โ€“ why SpaceX wants Cursor & vice versa ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ’’ 38:23 โ€“ early investors @a16z + @Thrive ๐Ÿค‘ 39:56 โ€“ @SBF_FTX almost won big ๐Ÿ™…โ€โ™‚๏ธ [ spv: Equitybee ] 44:27 โ€“ Why We @PracticalVC invested in @EquityBee ๐Ÿ 46:15 โ€“ How You Can Too ๐Ÿ‘ 46:53 โ€“ spinal cap debut ๐ŸŽถ๐ŸŽธ
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I never planned to build a secondaries marketplace. But then I kept hearing the same story: someone had SpaceX shares, or @AnthropicAI shares, or @databricks shares. And they couldn't do anything with them. No price discovery. No liquidity. No infrastructure. Meanwhile, institutional capital has been buying and selling these shares for years. @SpaceX is reportedly planning to go public at $1.75 trillion. When that happens, the people who benefited most won't be the ones who bought on day one of the IPO. It'll be the ones who had access to the secondaries market years earlier. Our goal isn't to fight for a few slices of that. It's to expand the pie โ€” to build the infrastructure that makes this accessible to more people before the next SpaceX IPO is even announced. There will be more of them. The question is who gets access.
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Our COO @ShriBhashyam joined the Trading Places pod with @davemcclure and @AmanVerjee to talk about where SPVs fit in private markets today. A few points from the conversation are worth noting...(๐Ÿงต)
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