آمریکایی فارسیدوست 🇺🇸
St Louis, MO
Joined July 2010
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Andrew Fogle retweeted
Iranians don’t understand the mindset of the group of people in America who watched America’s humiliation during the hostage crisis night after night on Ted Koppel’s Nightline.
Until that generation leaves decision making, nothing will improve in the relationship between the two countries, even if Israel is removed from the picture. That’s a generational score they feel they need to settle. It’s Hatfields vs McCoys
I know some of my excellent moots have other views but I think the perspective the Iranian leadership should take on the Trump admin is the maximally paranoid and pessimistic one and anything short of that is suicidal. Trump, hawks, and the Israel Lobby want to settle a generational grudge against the Islamic Republic and are utterly indifferent to public opinion, this is post-consent foreign policy and it's foolish to assume anything internal to US politics can stop it. Every olive branch is a trick, every overture is a lie, and at this point I even think some of the signals about depleted munitions and so on are part of the hybrid warfare. Iran should dig in for, minimally, two years of on and off war, anything else is geopolitical malpractice.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Kansas Democrats picking up the phone when a pollster calls
Andrew Fogle retweeted
The underlying claim also does not seem to be correct. The GCC countries including Qatar overwhelmingly focused their lobbying on the political right in America as well as certain elite institutions that they saw as more corruptible or potentially ideologically aligned.
Even more shortsightedly they focused most of their efforts in recent years on cultivating the highly unreliable and polarizing figure of Donald Trump as well as his son-in-law and other relatives. (The Qataris didn't buy Bernie Sanders a plane for obvious reasons.) As such they do not really have much sympathy in the broader American public and are seen largely correctly as another extension of the increasingly unpopular Trumpworld phenomenon.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
This year, similar to previous years, there are lots of videos on social media relating to young people in Iran celebrating Halloween.
Lots of cafes and restaurants are doing Halloween themed events (and some later issuing clarifications that in accordance to Iranian law they will no longer do it ... but mysteriously have fake spider webs all on their walls).
A huge number of advertisements with people wearing ghost and vampire costumes.
And for the last week there's lots of private Halloween parties & a bunch of people who are just wearing costumes and walking around in the streets. Including young girls publicly wearing very revealing clothing, similar to their West.
This has been going on for a while now. Though a few years ago it was more in big cities like Tehran & Isfahan and now I increasingly see it spreading to very small cities too.
Like everything else there is a counter reaction to this and cultural conservatives angrily making videos against this & meta commentary about "oh why aren't you celebrating authentic Iranian culture instead" and all the normal things.
And yes some businesses and pages getting shut down. I haven't heard of anyone getting actually arrested, but its within the realm of possibility.
All of these are a pretty weak reaction though. And the trend of which way things are going is pretty clear.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
Trump lies a lot and lies frequently, but I think he's being honest when he says he wants it over one way or the other soon.
He wants to close this chapter and move on to other things.
Haa not made a decision on how (leaning towards escalate) but making steps towards both
Andrew Fogle retweeted
The plan was always to say it would take a few days or weeks and then a few months later claim that the sunk costs are too great and it just has to continue indefinitely now.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
I agree. There was a window to win influence when it was a fresh admin but the neocon wing of his team
won internally, and trump has invested too much into the war to walk away now (at least on any terms acceptable to the iranian state). They’ll have to hold out and hope high gas prices and chaos in the region is enough of a political issue in 2028 on to give a president the mandate to make a deal that ends the war.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
There’s a lot of intentional confusion between the Iranian military-industrial complex, the personal business interests of Iranian elites, and the economy of Iran in general, because the real theory of sanctions is to starve ordinary people into rebellion.
An incredibly detailed piece that should be read in its entirety. One point stands out to me:
The shadow economy described in this piece is, in a sense, Iran's real economy, as it is how the country's governing elite manage their wealth, distribute patronage, arm and supply the IRGC and other military/security bodies, and maintain connections to the global economy through intermediaries.
This underscores the thesis that broad economic pressure--while very damaging to Iran's civilian economy and to the Iranian people as a whole--is less effective at pressuring the regime or those who profit from it continuing to remain in power. reuters.com/world/iran/irans…
Andrew Fogle retweeted
It seems obvious that the U.S. is again using the prospect of negotiations to buy time to get military equipment in place for another round of attacks and to calm markets for political reasons in the short term.
If so the more conciliatory Iranian officials in favor of making an arrangement with the U.S. are going to wind up being used yet again to paralyze Iranian decision making at a critical moment.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
یکی از سناتورهایی که در جریان نقشه جنگی آمریکا برای حمله به ایران قرار گرفته: «نمیتونم جزئیات رو فاش کنم. پرزیدنت از (سران نظامی) خواسته یک برنامه برای حمله به ایران تدوین کنند. نمیدونم خودشون باور دارند که جواب میده یا نه. فقط میتونم بگم اگر این طرح اجرا بشه دیوانگی مطلقه. زیرساختهای غیرنظامی که میخوان بزنند، به مثابه از بین بردن هرگونه تعهد ما به حاکمیت قانونه. جواب نمیده و تنش رو به شکل ویرانگری بالا می بره».
Andrew Fogle retweeted
عمهام اِمِلی شریدر:
"تو یه سلطنتطلبِ نفهمی، شاید تو دلت بخواد در ایران سلطنت باشد، اما اسرائیل یک دموکراسی است، کره خر، چرا نمیفهمی" 😅
Andrew Fogle retweeted
دوستانی که با بات پهلوی مخالفن آلترناتیوشون چیه؟ اطلاعاتمون رو به کدوم بات بدیم؟ به جای نق زدن خودتون یک بات بهتر درست کنید!
Andrew Fogle retweeted
خاک تو سرت سطلی!
یعنی تو هم مزدوری کردی و کشورت رو مجانی فروختی،
هم مثل یه رعیت بدبخت حقیر چند سال چاپلوسی پهلوی رو کردی،
هم مثل سگ برای موساد دم تکون دادی،
هم خونی که از فلسطینی زمین ریختن با لذت لیسیدی،
که آخرش باهات اینطوری حرف بزنن؟
تو مثالی از بردگی خودآموخته ای!
Andrew Fogle retweeted
It makes no sense to me for Iran to wait.
The intent to attack Iran has been publicly declared.
Robert Pape argues by now the Americans have figured out Iran’s command and control centers in its Mosaic defense system and will be immediately attacking those to eliminate them.
By waiting, Iran is also giving Trump the political timeout he needs. Right now, right before the elections, everyone knows Trump started the war, and Iran is under a blockade.
Iran is already under a military blockade, so it does not need to wait for the US/Israel bombing to act.
What Washington is preparing against Iran is a premeditated war. Its date has been fixed in advance by the electoral calendar, not by any threat. Trump himself has vowed there will be no attack on Iran before the midterms, and Washington has reportedly told Arab states to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the vote.
Premeditation is fatal to any claim of self-defense. Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, even anticipatory self-defense requires an imminent threat and a necessity leaving "no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation." A war that can be shelved for a month to suit an election is the product of deliberation, not necessity. The war's February start does not help: necessity and proportionality govern every phase, so a renewed campaign after a signed ceasefire must meet them again.
The stated aim, to "finish the job," confirms this is aggression, not defense. Force used to impose terms on a state is coercion against its political independence, which Article 2(4) forbids.
US law agrees. The Constitution gives Congress the war power and leaves the President only the power to repel sudden attacks. A campaign planned for months is neither sudden nor an emergency. If there is time to wait for an election, there is time to go to Congress.
Since Nuremberg, planning and preparing a war of aggression have been crimes in their own right. A premeditated war is not a defense. It is the crime itself, scheduled in advance.
Andrew Fogle retweeted
مشاور ارشد نخست وزیر سابق اسرائیل در گفتگو با همکارم فرناز قاضی زاده: هدف اسرائیل از جنگ، تجزیه ایران بود. رضا پهلوی فقط یک ابزار بود.
youtu.be/zpURHvqMJGQ?is=OGlh…
Andrew Fogle retweeted
I had an epiphany that early-stage Italian fascism was not world-ending totalitarianism. It was the Off-White equivalent to those memes about producing tomato concentrate and banning Western degeneracy.
