pollster, focus group moderator, not much else
CA or DE
Joined February 2009
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David Binder retweeted
"This is your country. This is your democracy. Make it. Protect it. Pass it on."
— Justice Thurgood Marshall, 1978
Dresden Philharmonic performs I. Adagio - Allegro non troppo, from Tchaikovsky's Symphony No. 6, composed in 1893.
May we turn to our better angels.
🙏🏼🇺🇸🕊️
David Binder retweeted
I need to explain why this poll is bullshit. California does not have a Democratic gubernatorial primary. We have a primary where all candidates run on the same ballot, every voter gets a single vote, and whichever top two candidates get the most votes, advance regardless of party (or percentage of the vote).
So, you will have Republicans and non-major party candidates on the same ballot with Kamala. You will have non-Democrats voting. To do a poll of Democrats of only a few Democratic candidates is not a proper poll. It does not properly measure the electorate.
David Binder retweeted
You can’t win or lose in the count. It’s not a football game with an outcome yet to be determined. It’s the slow unwrapping of a present, the awaiting of knowing the actual and unchangeable state of the world.
David Binder retweeted
A reminder that there’s no horserace aspect to counting votes. No one “pulls ahead” in the count or “makes up ground” or “loses their lead” in any real sense. It’s just an artifact of the process, the order in which votes are counted, an order part mandated and part random.
David Binder retweeted
Can’t stress this enough: in heavy vote by mail states (of which there will be more this fall), it is EXTREMELY TYPICAL for results to shift several points in the days/weeks after E Day. We (especially press) HAVE to normalize that therr might be a call in some states for a while
McEnany said "the system is supposed to" produce a winner on election night. FALSE. That’s the tradition — but it’s not required by law & it's not what the system is designed to do. This is part of the WH effort to set unrealistic expectations for November cnn.com/2020/09/12/politics/…
David Binder retweeted
ding ding ding
one quibble and one caveat:
quibble: it’s doesn’t just energize Dem voters, it’s actually the rare message that both motivates and persuades.
caveat: november 2022 is very. far. away.
The big California win shows Dems can energize their voters by leaning hard into prosecuting the case against GOP anti-vax, anti-mask derangement. Dem strategists tell me this is showing signs of galvanizing Dem voters the way Trump himself did. My latest:
washingtonpost.com/opinions/…
David Binder retweeted
Yup - a lot of factors played into increasing D turnout and I think if there is anything to learn from this election it will come from studying that. But it was definitely the strategy from Day One.
David Binder retweeted
Just one of several head-scratchers in this poll: @JoeBiden is doing BETTER w/white voters than the electorate overall. That means @realDonaldTrump is beating Biden w/the small portion of the IA electorate that is non-white? Really? Correct for that, it’s basically tied.
It is a measure of how stressed folks are about this election that one @DMRegister poll, starkly at odds with a lot of other surveys of the state, causes a major freak out.
People, in three days we will know! (Ok, it could take a few more days, but...)
David Binder retweeted
There was a poll that had Joe Biden up by 17 points in Wisconsin like 2 days ago. Can everyone just chill? Lol Tuesday cannot come soon enough
David Binder retweeted
Biden campaign just debuted this new ad "Go From There," during Game 1 of the World Series, narrated by Sam Elliott
David Binder retweeted
THREAD FOR ANNE FRANK’S TREE
This was Anne Frank’s view from the attic – her favorite spot where she could see the blue sky and one chestnut tree. She’d watch it lose its leaves in the winter, and watch the leaves return in spring.
David Binder retweeted
Ouch!!..This is the greatest "one liner" against Trump ever produced by anyone anywhere at anytime!.... This is Bloomberg at is fiery best! Omg...he just humiliated Trump in the worst way!
David Binder retweeted
1 GOP senator makes case to me for pushing the Scotus vote to the lame duck -
"If we fail before the election it really deflates our side. And even if we succeed, it takes the prize off the table. And I think the prize is pretty motivational."
David Binder retweeted
Groundhog day and Super Bowl Sunday aside, today’s a historic day. 02/02/2020—written the same backward and forward—it’s the first global palindrome day in 909 years.
David Binder retweeted
Of course! Because there’s like a bagillion of them. I bet I could get 6 DNC members to contemplate the idea of nominating Baby Yoda. Doesn’t make it true. So it’s on reporters and outlets to know the difference and not print click bait like this.
The difference between DNC members and "party leaders" is important. *Donna Brazile* is against this. The party is officially against this. But no one can stop some errant DNC members from tossing grenades into HQ. nitter.gq/lhfang/status/12233781…