just around and investing into generational companies, and building @tryprismxyz nothing that I post is financial advice.
Joined July 2022
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Initially the team thought I was not being serious…..
But, it just had to be a gold.
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Clear Street raises their $RKLB price target to $110 from $105 and maintains ‘Buy’ rating.
“Estimates rise mainly because Space Systems is running at a higher base, and secondarily because customers are paying more for Neutron. Revenue moves up about 9% in FY27E to $1.30B and about 10% in FY30E to $3.11B.”
$3+ billion in revenue by 2030… 👀
$RKLB - Clear Street raises Rocket Lab price target to $110 from $105 and maintains buy rating
Key Points:
Neutron demand is accelerating at better prices. Eight Neutron missions signed in 3Q (~$515M) take the manifest to 16, some at a $70M base price vs. our prior $51M-$59M ASP (now $65M). Management said it could have booked more but chose higher prices over volume, and customers are paying up ahead of a debut.
3Q26: record revenue and backlog. Revenue of $267.8M (+73% y/y) beat our $257.5M by ~4%, and backlog hit a record $3.57B (+52% q/q). Adj. EBITDA of $(18.0)M was ahead of our estimate on better gross margin, partly offset by higher Neutron R&D.
Outlook: higher on a stronger base and better Neutron pricing. The quarter gave us reason to move estimates up, though our changes are modest and the Neutron schedule is unchanged. Estimates rise mainly because Space Systems is running at a higher base, and secondarily because customers are paying more for Neutron. Revenue moves up about 9% in FY27E to $1.30B and about 10% in FY30E to $3.11B.
Balance sheet: ~$4.7B net cash. Cash burn stays heavy as Neutron spending comes ahead of revenue, so we model year-end 2026 cash of ~$4.3B. The ATM and Iridium’s credit facility fully fund the deal, leaving regulatory approvals as the remaining step.
Raising PT to $110, Reiterate Buy
We raise our price target to $110 from $105 following 3Q26 results, and the target rests on three pieces: the multiple, revenue and net cash.
• The multiple (largest piece). We apply ~23x 2030E EV/Sales, which works out to ~0.6x per point of growth on a ~39% 2025-30 revenue CAGR.
• Revenue. Our 2030E estimate rises to $3.11B (from $2.83B) and reflects 15 Neutron launches, implying about $71.5B of 2030E enterprise value before discounting to present value.
• Net cash (smallest piece). Neutron capex arrives ahead of revenue, so FY26-27 cash burn stays heavy, and we model 2030E net cash of about $6.0B.
Management has not dated the 2027 first flight, and we maintain 3Q27E
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$AREC: Right now, a trader can buy 1 ton of legit tantalum, buy 4 more tons from smugglers, and photocopy the same certificate 4 times.
That's how minerals are tracked today. A PDF.
@SagintInc is fixing that. A token can only move with the actual lot, so the photocopy trick stops working.
I recently had the wonderful opportunity to sit down with Amb. Troy Fitrell (@tdf_dc), former top US diplomat for Africa and now CEO of SAGINT International, and Non-Executive Director of Ivanhoe Atlantic (@IvanhoeAtlantic). We covered tokenization, the ADI Foundation partnership, a pan-African minerals exchange, and the Jan 1 traceability rules.
This interview is a wonderful one, and I highly recommend you check it out. Enjoy - and thanks again to Troy for the discussion!
app.tryprism.xyz/p/probzunkn…
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A blowout quarter 🚀🛰️Today we reported $RKLB Q3 2026 financial results and the numbers speak for themselves.
Full results: investors.rocketlabcorp.com/…
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Failed to record my interview today, so I made it a point to get my Onsite in person interview uploaded ASAP.
This is my first YouTube video, so go easy on me. Massive thanks to the @UnusualMachines media team for their help and expertise, along with @evansall and Drew Camden (don't think he's on X) for their time.
Facilities videos coming, along with coverage across the Hard Tech landscape. Any sharing and subscriptions very appreciated, thank you all on X for following and tuning in.
youtu.be/j1Gub_TIwEI?si=vdEm…
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Tune in to our Q3 2026 financial results at 5:00 pm ET today.
📺 edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/…
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The criticism isn't "vertical integration bad", it's the timeline and choice of partner, compounded by years of /r/confidentlyincorrect discourse about launch that inverted reality
If the thesis was this wrong about something so central to it, what else might it be wrong about?
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“We’ll launch our own rockets by 2028” is the new “Space X will change the economics of space launch”
$SPCX has their own demand, and they have every incentive to slow down their competition. This isn’t limited to $ASTS . This is coming from @CowboySpaceCorp @StarpathSpace and more.
Rockets are hard, but so is selling investors on your dreams. I still think rockets are harder.
Long $RKLB and looking for a good entry on $SPCX. Outside of those two there are opportunities, but a lot of these folks ain’t gonna make it. $ASTS best hopes are in defense and sigint, hopefully that can sustain them long enough to get through to constellation deployment, but the multiples are still insane.
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🚨 $ASTS unveils plans to manufacture and launch their own 20-ton rocket, Blacklift, in just 2 years time… 😅
They believe procuring engines from $FLY will enable them to skip the traditional 5-10 year development cycle.
The deal will cost $ASTS $1.3 billion and includes 36 engines for the first three rockets and a licensing deal to manufacture them themselves.
Worth mentioning that this is 2-3x the entire R&D cost of $RKLB’s Neutron rocket… 👀
In my opinion, this level of optimism borders on delusion and does a disservice to shareholders.
$ASTS has already pushed back commercial service of its core product, their BlueBird constellation, at least 4 times over the last few years.
While decades-old rocket companies struggle with the challenges of developing new state-of-the-art rockets, what makes $ASTS think it won’t face major cost & execution hurdles too as it steps into a domain it’s entirely unfamiliar with?
(Something its track record shows it’s all too familiar with).
AST SpaceMobile to Build Own 20-Ton Rocket to Deploy BlueBird Satellites in Low Earth Orbit Using Miranda Engines from Firefly Aerospace.
businesswire.com/news/home/2…
#ASTSpaceMobile #Broadband #ConnectingtheUnconnected #BlueBirds #Blacklift
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Black Mass: The Domestic Solution Is Taking Shape
Electrified Materials Corporation is advancing domestic #BatteryRecycling—processing LFP & NMC batteries into #BlackMass, with a pathway to advanced refining and material recovery through @ReElementTech.
Building the solution today.
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$AREC
An Unknown exclusive first of its kind! Our brother sits down with Troy Fitrell, CEO of @SagintInc to explain the importance of tokenized traceability. Mind you @ReElementTech is already using this technology. This is the future (and present) of traceability. Bravo Probz!
$AREC: Right now, a trader can buy 1 ton of legit tantalum, buy 4 more tons from smugglers, and photocopy the same certificate 4 times.
That's how minerals are tracked today. A PDF.
@SagintInc is fixing that. A token can only move with the actual lot, so the photocopy trick stops working.
I recently had the wonderful opportunity to sit down with Amb. Troy Fitrell (@tdf_dc), former top US diplomat for Africa and now CEO of SAGINT International, and Non-Executive Director of Ivanhoe Atlantic (@IvanhoeAtlantic). We covered tokenization, the ADI Foundation partnership, a pan-African minerals exchange, and the Jan 1 traceability rules.
This interview is a wonderful one, and I highly recommend you check it out. Enjoy - and thanks again to Troy for the discussion!
app.tryprism.xyz/p/probzunkn…
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Proud to support with its IP strategy and development! Monumental progress at the company domestically and abroad! No better positioning then refining domestically and abroad. The royalty structure we have in place is low cost to the company but pure margin for $RMCO going forward as we fund it with equity capital not leverage #unitedstates #Malaysia #southafrica #kenya $RMCO
ReElement Announces $46 Million in Non-Dilutive Federal NMTC Allocation to Support Critical-Minerals Refining Expansion
einnews.com/pr_news/95456336…
@Amerresources @royaltymgmtcorp @electrifiedmat
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Before Blue & Gold make their way to Mars, let’s run it back to how we built these spacecraft in-house for a dedicated science mission with @NASA and @ucbssl.
This is our tech currently on orbit for the @escapade_mars mission👇
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Get ready: Trans-Mars Injection incoming.
Our two spacecraft - Blue & Gold - will slingshot Earth and shoot for Mars in four days.
The @escapade_mars mission for @NASA & @ucbssl is preparing for TMI – a critical maneuver in this epic interplanetary mission.
Blue’s engine burn scheduled: Saturday 7th November
Gold’s engine burn scheduled: Monday 9th November
Learn more about ESCAPADE here: rocketlabcorp.com/missions/e…
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Electron is vertical on Pad A at Launch Complex 1 to begin fueling.
Mission details for today's 99th Electron launch "The Sea God Surveys":
🎯 Repeat customer: @QPS_Inc
🛰️ Payload: 1x QPS-SAR satellite
🌏 Orbit: 575km LEO
📍 Inclination: 42 degrees
