
17 | trans she/her | i love meteorology | band kid | 🇵🇸🇺🇦 | ny giants and phillies fan | @landosad3 is bestie :3 | priv @simbasad2_priv
Chester Co, PA
Joined August 2022
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this is 100% because of how you react when ppl confront you btw! if you have an open mind and actually say that you're willing to change and apologize without any emotional reactions ppl will start telling you shit
yeah im quitting seasonal forecasting this shit has too many sweats 😭
❄️🌀🌎 Early November 2026 — Stratospheric Warming Signal
Early-November Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) Signal | 3–10 November 2026
The latest structural-analog analysis is showing a notable increase in the likelihood of a possible early-November sudden stratospheric warming episode during 3–10 November 2026, with the signal particularly pronounced across the Eurasian and North American sectors. This early November SSW had also oddly materialized in November 2025, which is considered a rare event .
The forecast is based on 20 candidate structural analogs for November 2026, with the resulting pattern remaining robust after resampling across 10 independent random-season ensembles.
The 10-hPa temperature composite shows a pronounced positive temperature anomaly across the Arctic/polar stratosphere, with the strongest warming extending through the Eurasian and North American sectors.
The accompanying 100-hPa vector-wind composite also indicates a highly disturbed circulation pattern around the polar region, providing additional evidence of an anomalous large-scale dynamical configuration during the same period.
⚠️ Important: This is not a confirmation of an SSW event. At this stage, it represents an analog-based probabilistic signal. Confirmation would require the dynamical evolution to produce the characteristic weakening and/or reversal of the 10-hPa polar-night jet, particularly in the zonal-mean winds near 60°N.
The next level of verification is therefore to examine the 10-, 30-, 50-, and 100-hPa circulation structure, including the evolution of the polar vortex and the potential role of upward-propagating planetary wave-1 and wave-2 activity.
If the temperature and wind signals remain dynamically coherent as we approach November, the case for an early-November stratospheric disruption becomes considerably stronger.
🔹 Forecast window: 3–10 November 2026
🔹 Method: Structural Analog Modeling + Random-Season Resampling
🔹 Candidate analogs: 20
🔹 Validation: 10 independent random-season ensembles
🔹 Primary diagnostic: 10-hPa polar temperature
🔹 Dynamical support: 100-hPa vector-wind structure
See the previous forecast for Nov SSW signal found from June in the comments please .
Statistical Model by @Statisticizer
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yall sexualized the word daddy too much my kids gonna have to call me foomf (family oomf)
Daniella ⛈️ retweeted
when I talk about the weather it isn’t small talk. I actually care about it and I want to discuss.
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brewers looked great those first two games, but so did the rays ngl. i think they win 2 or 3 games in TB and force at least a game 6
hey @Phillies when you actually do something in the offseason it yeilds positive results! just look at the 76ers across the street
As the winter approaches, here are some of my preliminary thoughts as I start working on the Winter Forecast. Firstly, this El Nino event is simply historical. The strength that this nino has reached and will likely continue getting stronger is fascinating.
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Tropical Storm #Kirk Advisory 1: New Tropical Storm Forms Well South of the Cabo Verde Islands. go.usa.gov/W3H
Daniella ⛈️ retweeted
Hurricane #Kirk Advisory 9: Kirk Becomes a Hurricane. hurricanes.gov
if you say "united statian" then your opinion is automatically wrong
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