https://nitter.gq/t.co/wxT8OaOIF6 / Rendement met technische analyse. Al 25 jaar toonaangevend in de beleggingswereld.
Amsterdam, Beursplein 5
Joined March 2024
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Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Dot Com parallel, starting 6 months before the first hike, for the chart junkies.
No I do not think we perfectly repeat this, but there are key lessons to learn from that period.
The dance between stocks and bonds continues.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
The Economic Timing Model, composite of 27 indicators, held at 17 for a 3rd month, highest level in over a year. Positive readings associated with economic expansion, and current level is historically consistent with above-trend growth and +7% to +8% $SPX 12-mnth forward returns
$ES_F $SPY $QQQ $NYA $DIA $IWM $SMH $NVDA $AAPL $SPCX $META $TSLA $MAGS $VIX $BTC
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
This is one of those stats you simply cannot ignore.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher one year after every single U.S. midterm election. $SPX $SPY
19 out of 19 times.
Average 12-month return: +15.4% 😮
Even more interesting:
● First 3 months: +5.7% average
● First 6 months: +12.4% average
● One year later: +15.4% average
Does that guarantee 2027?
Of course not.
But when something has worked across 19 different market cycles spanning more than 70 years, it deserves your attention.
History doesn’t predict the future. But it sure as hell gives you a roadmap.
Market wild swings in 2027- you take full advantage of those pullbacks. Period.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Zooming out (not just midterm years).. now is often a great time to buy GS $SPY
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Octoberphobia giving way to a year-end rally? The Halloween Trade and post-midterm election rally have historically aligned with a bullish stretch for stocks. Here's how 2026 is shaping up. jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/8…
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
After a 15% rally in April/May, the S&P 500 has simply consolidated those gains for nearly five months.
The 20-week MA has caught up and now is a nice time for the primary trend (a bull market) to continue.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
The dot com bubble didn’t end in an across the board bust … it ended with rotation
Wrote about this here 👇
nitter.gq/sonusvarghese/status/2…
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
US midterms. 10 days away.
I went back 76 years and ran the $SPX numbers myself.
19 out of 19. Every single post-midterm period GREEN.
Smallest gain: +2.23%.
Largest gain: +29.51%.
Not one negative return since 1950.
History doesn't guarantee the next move, but you can't ignore 19 consecutive winners.
2026 is up next.
$SPY $QQQ @Optuma
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Last 2-week's retreat in $COMPQ has been on schedule and now almost perfectly on track with Cycle Composite 2026 analogue.
From here and post-Election, the Cycle Composite points to a sharp rally ahead.
I'm not prepared to deny the Cycle Composite, but not used in isolation.
$QQQ $NDX $MSFT $AAPL $NVDA $MU $SPCX $TSLA $GOOGL $SPX $SPY $BTC
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Seriously? Seriously bruh 😎
At just 16.4X P/E, Semiconductors are now trading at a valuation beneath... far beneath the S&P 500.
This often proves a bottoming for both, like 2025 and early 2026.
$SMH $SPX $SPY $SOXX $NVDA $AMD $MU $AVGO $QQQ $NDX $INTC $MRVL (chart via Koyfin)
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Something has to give, as October 28th is historically the best day of the year.
This day falls on this Wednesday and that is also a Fed meeting. Under Kevin Warsh we've seen the S&P 500 fall 1.21% in June, 1.52% in July, and 0.45% in September.
Which history will repeat?
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
This is the CRAZIEST Market Statistic of all time
Dont skip this. It’s the most IMPORTANT thing you’ll Read.
All have a 100% WIN RATE
First: FED HIKING CYCLES.
Since 1983, the S&P 500 $SPY has risen during every completed multi-meeting hiking cycle.
7/7.
Average gain: ~10%.
Then MIDTERMS.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm.
19/19.
Average gain: ~15%.
And this one might be even crazier:
Since 1942, EVERY November-through-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21/21.
Average gain: +16.6%.
Then add one more:
12 months after the final Fed hike?
7/8 positive.
Average gain: ~20%.
The only miss: May 2000 during the dot-com collapse.
So 2026 has:
7/7 during Fed hiking cycles.
19/19 after midterms.
21/21 from November through June after midterms.
Three completely different historical setups.
Three near-perfect streaks.
All lining up in the same year.
History guarantees nothing.
But this is VERY hard to ignore.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Continued historic flows into cash.
Yes, you can finally get something for cash, but this feels extreme.
Past surges have been opportunities. Is this time different?
Nice one from @MacroCharts in his must read report today.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
One of the big stories from October (so far) is how breadth has gotten significantly better.
S&P 500 A/D line has been soaring the past few weeks, but it is now nearing a big level. Should it eventually get above this line (I think it will), new highs on the S&P 500 won't be far behind.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
Year five of bull markets tend to be quite strong.
Not to mention the two bull markets that were up more on their 4th birthday (1980s and 2010s bull markets) saw huge gains in year five.
Tostrams.nl | IEX retweeted
This is the WILDEST stat I have ever seen in the Stock Market
READ this. This is how GENERATIONAL wealth is made.
21/21.
Since 1942, $SPX EVERY November-to-June period following a midterm has been positive.
21 straight. A 100% WIN RATE.
Average gain: +16.6%.
Then zoom out:
Since 1950, the S&P 500 $SPY has been higher 12 months after EVERY midterm.
19 midterms.
19/19 positive.
Average gain: ~15%.
Two different time windows.
Zero negative outcomes.
21/21.
19/19.
That doesn’t guarantee 2027 follows history.
But when midterm fear gets loud, remember what has historically happened after the uncertainty clears.
Keep this.
