BCap21 (@b_cap21) profile picture

Equity analyst tweeting mostly about high quality companies

Joined July 2021
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$CSU Mark Leonard resigns - health reasons
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BCap21 retweeted
Welles Crowther, a former Boston College lacrosse player who had a trademark red bandana, was working in New York on Sept. 11, 2001. This is the story of how he led people to safety after terrorists struck the World Trade Center.
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Advance footage of the September 5 media event.
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Replying to @TuckerCarlson
I am Nate Anderson, the founder of Hindenburg Research referenced repeatedly in this bizarre and fantastical interview. During my career, I helped expose numerous financial scams, including over a dozen Ponzi schemes and numerous instances of public companies lying to and stealing from investors: hindenburgresearch.com/about… I am immensely proud of that career including our work on Nikola Motors referenced in the interview. Trevor Milton is a convicted fraudster held criminally responsible for the incineration of hundreds of millions of dollars in retail investors’ hard-earned money. As should be unsurprising, Milton in this interview seems to just fabricate key events and information out of thin air – unfortunately with zero critical questioning or pushback from Tucker. For starters, contrary to Trevor Milton’s implications that his prosecution was some sort of Biden administration conspiracy, conveniently neither Milton nor Tucker share that the investigation into Milton was started and disclosed in September 2020 – under the first TRUMP administration and well before the 2020 election. There were numerous inaccuracies throughout the interview. The claim that Hindenburg paid employees for inside information is patently absurd. The key whistleblower discussed in the interview was only briefly a contractor for Milton. He was so horrified by what he viewed as Milton’s repeated false claims that he did a tremendous amount of research on his own, unraveling numerous additional suspected lies that Milton peddled to the investing public. Further, Hindenburg didn’t “coordinate” anything with media or the DoJ. Such entities ran their own investigations for their own purposes unconnected to us. There was ample evidence that Milton misstated numerous aspects of his business, as the company itself later acknowledged. It would take hours to write about all the other absurdities, half-truths, innuendos and false statements in this interview but in the interest of correcting some of the record, here’s a handful: - Milton waxes on about his pardon, but no one mentioned that Milton’s lawyer was Brad Bondi—the brother of AG Pam Bondi. Nor did anyone mention that Milton donated $900 thousand to Trump in October 2024, less than a month before the recent election—strategically timed well after his criminal conviction and immediately prior to the presidential election. Trump acknowledged he had never heard of Milton before being asked to pardon him but relied on others for the recommendation. - Milton failed to mention that immediately prior to his resignation from his company, beyond the extensive allegations of fraud, he was also publicly accused of multiple instances of sexual assault, including by his own cousin, who went on-the-record with her allegations. - I can only wonder what kind of investigation Tucker undertook of the fraud allegations against Milton before having him on. Milton literally video-taped a truck rolling down a hill implying that it was driving under its own power. He also went up on stage and said a truck that didn’t work “fully functions and works.” - Waxing poetic about hydrogen in the interview echoes Nikola’s lies to retail investors that it successfully produced hydrogen at a cost ~81% lower than anyone on earth, a feat that would have upended the entire energy industry had it been remotely true. Nikola’s head of hydrogen production, presumably in charge of this world-changing scientific breakthrough, turned out to be Milton’s own brother, who had no scientific background and previously did odd construction jobs in Hawaii. - These weren’t one-off misstatements—there were dozens of examples like these. As the DoJ said – and proved in court – Milton “made false claims regarding nearly all aspects of Nikola’s business.” The company itself admitted to many of these false statements, agreed to a $125 million fine, and won an arbitration against Milton holding him personally liable for his conduct. - Milton claimed that Hindenburg made $30m-$100m on our Nikola investment—this isn’t even close (we made a fraction of that). Trevor seems to just be making these numbers up out of thin air. Hilariously, Tucker opened by suggesting that short selling was illegal until 2007, a claim that is completely false. After confirming that he knows nothing about the subject, he went on to suggest that short selling should be criminalized outright. Short selling has existed for hundreds of years, and for good reason. Short sellers play a critical role in the functioning of healthy markets, similar to the role of investigative journalists, (which I presume Tucker considers himself akin to). Most companies are a force for good and economic growth. However, some companies lie and engage in fraud. Short sellers have exposed nearly every major corporate fraud in the past several decades because just as there is an economic incentive for identifying the good companies, there is also an economic model for identifying the scams. This is how free markets and free speech works—helping weed out the bad companies and those stealing from investors so good companies have more room to thrive. Claiming to be a free speech advocate while casually advocating for the imprisonment of anyone who dares to speak critically about public companies is a contradiction of the highest order. In short, Tucker, I highly suggest you actually vet the people you welcome onto your platform. If you find yourself staring, mouth agape at your interviewee, repeatedly saying “Wow! This is unbelievable!” it may in fact be because it’s unbelievable. You reach a lot of people and this one was an avoidable miss. Good day.
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FICO welcomes competition on a level playing field among credit score providers. We compete vigorously in every U.S. consumer credit market, and the FICO® Score is freely chosen by lenders, investors, and other market participants because it is trusted as the most predictive and reliable credit score. FICO scores are the industry standard and preferred choice for evaluating creditworthiness in the mortgage process, regardless of whether the loan is conforming or non-conforming. For decades, FICO has led the industry in innovation, from incorporating the use of telco and utility data in FICO Classic to the inclusion of rental data and trended data in FICO® Score 10T, thereby expanding credit access for both urban and rural borrowers. The mortgage marketplace has rapidly embraced FICO® Score 10 T’s ability to deliver lower costs and greater access for homebuyers. The safety and soundness of the system is built on the integrity of the FICO® Score.
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Father Jerry Buss was a prof. at USC (PhD in physical chemistry), and engineer at TRW in the 60s when started buying real estate in Southern California, when it was roughly the same price as any other part of the country. If you've ever seen those higher rise apartments 1/
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Apologies for the TLDR, but when you step back, it is kind of wild what we’ve all lived through over the last five years. No wonder so many young people are anxious about the future—the ‘disturbance in the force’ feels stronger by the day. I don’t have any grand takeaways other than this--the world could use an immediate course correction in the direction of boring--or we may really need those Mars rockets sooner than expected. One thing is for sure--Israel is making a compelling case for Golden Dome. • A once-in-a-century pandemic shuts the world down. No matter how you view it in hindsight, both allies and adversaries were nearly unified in halting the global economy and banishing society to lockdowns and high-pressure mask & vaccination campaigns. • We tried to print our way out of the system shock, triggering the most euphoric markets since the dot-com bubble—pre-revenue IPOs reappeared for some reason and people forgot that good companies generally don’t SPAC. • The digital revolution kicked into overdrive—work-from-home, virtual education traumatized parents, Zoom cocktail parties, Peloton, DoorDash and MS Teams---probably the most painful development. • Civil unrest emerged alongside deepening social and political divides. • A disheartening end to the war in Afghanistan—trillions spent, thousands of lives lost and the Taliban is still running the show. • Market euphoria gave way to historic inflation. Interest rates shot up to cool things down. The tide went out, and the “shitcos” failed. Centralized crypto exchanges gambled customer deposits. Hedge funds weren’t hedged. VC-heavy banks like SVB collapsed, triggering a temporary panic in the regional banking system. The big banks… got even bigger. • For the first time since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, a nuclear superpower launched a full-scale invasion of a neighboring country. The West isolates Russia, and we witness a new asymmetric dynamic in warfare--cheap drones, missile swarms, all playing out in real time on social media. • The metaverse and Web3 died quickly as the “Magnificent Seven” lead a market rebound on the promise of AI. • China closes gaps--and maybe pulls ahead--in some of the most strategically important technologies. They tolerate risk, aren’t afraid to steal good ideas and make them better--and operate with a culture that—for all its flaws—just goes out and does big things without dragging decades of baggage behind it. • Hamas launches a surprise attack on Israeli civilians, takes hostages and triggers a war that pulls in Iranian proxies like the Houthis--disrupting global shipping lanes and igniting a politically charged humanitarian crisis. • Political winds shift again. A former President—also the frontrunner—is shot in an assassination attempt, the first since Reagan. Thankfully, he survives and is now our 47th President. • The Pakistani and Indian Air Forces engage in the largest air-to-air exchange in decades. China’s latest fighters and missiles see combat success against contemporary French aircraft—signaling what many already knew--China’s military is approaching peer status. • Israel launches the most sophisticated and devastating air campaign since Desert Storm—targeting Iranian military and scientific leadership, degrading air defenses, missile systems and nuclear infrastructure..and the conflict may just be getting warmed up. All in just five years... Hopefully our defense and policy leaders are paying attention and making some course corrections. Congressional leadership is mostly well-intentioned, but often fights for expensive job programs--exactly the kind of thing an over-consolidated defense industry encourages--even as we stare down an unsustainable $36 trillion national debt. That’s how you end up holding a fleet of battleships during the advent of the aircraft carrier.... Only this time, the analogy breaks down--because as a nation have forgotten how to build ships. So instead, we will have $300 million fighter jets we can’t afford, arriving a decade too late, in quantities that may not even matter—disrupted by million-dollar, hypersonic, laser-equipped drones that our adversaries will likely produce at scale. Until, perhaps, the dark horse Skynet T-1000 shows up. This is the time--especially in such a politically charged environment--when we need to be finding more ways to come together instead of moving farther apart. A time to be rooting for America and our leadership, not betting on the next Polymarket catastrophe. Because if the next five years look anything like the last, military parades and trade imbalances will be the least of our problems.
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BCap21 retweeted
Any recommendations for books that cover the .com bubble?
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A former VP at IAA explains how Copart $CPRT won international markets by focusing on the buyer's experience: "These were two fundamental differences. Copart decided early on to become a digital marketplace that happens to sell cars, creating an Amazon-like environment for e-commerce where people could buy and sell cars. IAA, however, remained a salvage auction company with an internet solution. Although these may sound similar, they are fundamentally different. IAA held on to being a salvage car auction company for a long time, offering a digital option for online bidding but still fundamentally operating as a salvage car auction company."
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This WaterBridge announcement is good. Capacity increasing 25% and water handled possibly much higher. Good read through for $lb. Bit of a shot across the bow to $aris - not that there’s not enough volume to give around. businesswire.com/news/home/2…
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Tariffs explained: - Trump admin is hostile to foreign trade barriers on US exports, - Trump admin goes to "ally" (free loader on US security) and asks them to reduce trade barriers, - Ally says no because of reasons (?), - The Trump admin tariffs them.
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$TOI former exec. on Rule of 40% (EBIT% + Organic G%): "If you got 40%, they (Mark/ $CSU) want that you get 54% or 60% or whatever" "they don't tell you to cut down employees as long as you are at 40%, when your EBIT is going under 15%, they get a little bit more ballsy" 1/x
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Hot off the presses $BAH
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Too long to type out but not too long to take a photo of if you have the document
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BCap21 retweeted
How can Singapore sales be +440%, go from 8% of sales a year ago to 19%, and $NVDA not say a word about the regional strength? It's almost like they don't want to call attention to it.. Is there a reasonable explanation that doesn't involve those sales getting funneled to China?
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took this framework from Mr Mojo
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I am often asked for stock recommendations, but generally don’t share individual names unless I believe the risk versus the reward is extraordinarily compelling. As we look toward 2025, one investment in our portfolio stands out for large asymmetric upside versus downside so I thought I would share it. We have owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock for more than a decade. Today, they trade at or around our average cost. As such, they have not been great investments to date. What makes them particularly interesting today versus any other time in history is that there is a credible path for their removal from conservatorship in the relative short term, that is, in the next two years. During Trump’s first term, Secretary Mnuchin took steps toward this outcome, but he ran out of time. I expect that in the second @realDonaldTrump administration, Trump and his team will get the job done. A successful emergence of Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship should generate more than $300 billion of additional profits to the Federal government (this is on top of the $301 billion of cash distributions already paid to the Treasury) while removing ~$8 trillion of liabilities from our government’s balance sheet. The GSEs have built $168 billion of capital since Mnuchin ended the net worth sweeps in 2019. This is already a fortress-level of capital for guarantors of fixed-rate, first mortgages to creditworthy, middle class borrowers. The scenario we envision is that: (1) the GSEs are credited with the dividends and other distributions paid on the government senior preferred, which would have the effect of fully retiring the senior preferreds at their stated 10% coupon rate with an extra $25 billion profit (in excess of the preferreds’ stated yield) to the government. This extra profit could be justified as payment to the government for its standby commitment to the GSEs during conservatorship. (2) the GSEs’ capital ratio is set at 2.5% of guarantees outstanding, a level which would have enabled the GSEs to cover nearly seven times the their actual realized losses incurred during the Great Financial Crisis — a true fortress-level balance sheet. A 2.5% capital ratio is the same required for mortgage insurers who by comparison guarantee the first ~20% of losses on often riskier mortgages with less creditworthy borrowers, compared with the GSEs’ guarantee which attaches at the senior-most <=80% of the property’s mortgaged value. Mortgage insurers therefore typically incur 100% losses on a default whereas by comparison GSE losses on a default are minimal. The GSEs also have enormous ongoing earnings power, particularly during challenging periods in the housing market where they tend to take significant additional market share. This enables them to quickly recapitalize after a period of housing market stress. Assuming a Q4 2026 IPO, the two companies collectively would need only raise about $30 billion to meet the 2.5% capital standard, a highly achievable outcome. Freddie needs more than Fannie (which will need little if any capital) because it has grown its guarantee book more quickly than Fannie in recent years. We estimate the value of each company at the time of their IPOs in 2026 at ~$34 per share. We assume their IPOs are priced at $31 per share reflecting a ~10% discount to their intrinsic values. We calculate a profit to the gov’t of ~$300 billion assuming full exercise of its warrants and a sell down of common stock in both companies over the five years following the IPOs. We believe the junior preferreds are also a good investment, but they do not offer nearly the same return because their upside is capped. Trump likes big deals and this would be the biggest deal in history. I am confident he will get it done. There remains a high degree of uncertainty about the ultimate outcome so you should limit your exposure to what you can afford to lose if you choose to invest. Happy New Year!
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